Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/8

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2024's first office savior has arrived, and it's called Dune: Part Two.

The epic space opera sequel effectively doubled the opening of its 2021 predecessor-which was a day-and-date release that was further dinged by being released at a time where the box office was still compromised from COVID-with an $82.5 mil debut. All of the exit polls were just as good, if not better than the glowing critical reviews and Ghostbusters is the next big movie aimed at adults on the calendar, so it should have no issue clearing 200 mil domestic and getting the adaptation of Messiah greenlit by the end of its run.

Dune wasn't the only new release to make noise this past weekend. Julio Torres' feature directorial debut Problemista-which debuted at SXSW 2023 and was originally set to release last August before Torres asked A24 to pull it from the calendar at the onset of the SAG strike-posted an impressive $28,187 PTA from 5 theaters. Even with the release of Kung Fu Panda 4 and the buzzy Love Lies Bleeding, Problemista should be able to pick up at least a few more PTA points before it goes wide on the 22nd.

Over in the boring holdover market, February's big wide release duo of Bob Marley: One Love and Madame Web each achieved milestones by clearing the $80 and $40 mil marks respectively following their third weekends of release. One Love should be able to flirt with $100 mil by the time it's done while Madame Web might be able to crawl past $50 if enough people memewatch it before it leaves the major multiplexes in the next 2-3 weeks.

Wide Releases:
After an 8-year layoff, Po is back for another martial arts adventure in Kung Fu Panda 4 (Universal/Dreamworks). This film sees Po (Jack Black) aiming to retire from being the Dragon Warrior and transition to a life full of peace, but life has other plans for him when a new shapeshifting foe called the Chameleon (Viola Davis) forces him back into kung fu action. Awkwafina plays Po's new fox sidekick Zhen while James Han, Dustin Hoffman, Bryan Cranston and Ian McShane all reprise their roles from the previous films. Noticeably absent from this installment however is the Furious 5-the team of animal martial arts masters voiced by Angelina Jolie, Jackie Chan, Seth Rogen, Lucy Liu and David Cross that accompanied Po on his previous missions.

Like most animated sequels, Kung Fu Panda 4 has to battle with the potential damage that time has done to its brand. Only Despicable Me/Minions has proven to be immune to this phenomenon in recent years and while it's been 8 years since the last film-which was the lowest grossing of the series with $143 mil domestic/$521 mil WW, there have has two spin-off series released since then that could either serve as fuel for fatigue or the continued prosperity for the long-running Dreamworks franchise.

One thing that Kung Fu Panda 4 does have going for it is that it's the first movie aimed at kids releasing since before Christmas. Migration's incredible resilience at the box office has unquestionably been partly powered by a lack of competition and the familiar face of Po could lead to a bit of an overperformance to meet the pent-up demand for new product in this space. A $100+ mil performance seems like a lock, but it could very well be the lowest grossing installment in the series if it fades away quicker than the aforementioned Migration.

Price: $41 ULT/$44 BO
Predictions:$30-45 mil OW /6-10 PTA/ 10-18Top 5/mid to high 6 IMDb/$100-175 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: While it's basically guaranteed to be among the 3 highest grossers of the season, its price tag is probably too hefty in either format to justify picking it.


While they've branched out by inking streaming output deals with Amazon and Epix/MGM+ in recent years, Blumhouse's theatrical output is still almost exclusively handled by Universal. The two have become so synonymous with each other that it almost feel wrong when the Blumhouse logo is preceded by that of another studio in the opening credits. This rare, slightly shocking phenomenon will occur this week with Imaginary (Lionsgate)-which bizarrely enough marks the second time that Jeff Wadlow has made a Blumhouse-backed project for a studio that isn't Universal. As the title implies, Wadlow's film explores the concept of an imaginary friend turning vengeful when the woman (DeWanda Wise) that abandoned them years earlier returns to her childhood home. It's a pretty clever, fun premise for a horror movie that would have quite a bit of potential if it was made by somebody other than the guy behind Fantasy Island and Truth or Dare.

Strong likelihood of bad reviews and WOM aside, Imaginary is in an ideal spot to max out its grosses at the box office. There hasn't been a pure horror release of note since Night Swim, the premise should allow to it generate greater interest among teen/young adult audiences than the killer swimming pool of Night Swim and the marketing campaign surrounding an evil teddy bear that serves as the avatar for the hostile imaginary friend has been pretty consistently visible over the past few months. This trio of reasons makes me reasonably confident that it can outduel Night Swim-which currently sits at $32.3 mil and posted 4 Top 5 and 0 PTA points in ULT, but it would be surprising if it did much better than that.
Price: $11 ULT/$10 BO
Predictions:$8-15 mil OW /0-3 PTA/2-7 Top 5/low to mid 5 IMDb/$20-50 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Only if you're desperate for fliers in BO.


Cabrini (Angel) is another interesting litmus test for Angel Studios as a distributor. A biopic about Italian nun Frances Cabrini overcoming the odds to establish a string of orphanages and hospitals in New York City in the 1890's/1900's doesn't seem like a home run on paper, but faith-based crowdpleasers always have the breakout factor working for them, so we'll just have to wait and see what the returns look like come Sunday.
Price: $6 ULT/$5 BO
Predictions:$3-9 mil OW /0-2 PTA/0-5 Top 5/high 6 to low 7 IMDb/$10-35 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Unless some kind of Sound of Freedom-esque Astrotruf miracle emerges at the last minute, no


Limited Release:
A24's 2024 slate just got off to a strong start with the release of Problemista and they'll look to keep rolling with Love Lies Bleeding (A24) this weekend. Rose Glass' sophomore feature has gotten great reviews out of Sundance and Berlin, which along with the presence of indie darling Kristen Stewart in the lead role should put the lesbian revenge thriller in a great spot to make some noise on the arthouse circuit this weekend. How this allegedly very gnarly, unapologetically queer movie fares in wide release is another question entirely, but there should be enough gas left in the tank to at least power it to a semi-respectable expansion.
Price: $4 ULT/$2 BO
Predictions: $150-275k OW/4-7 PTA/0-2 Top 5/high 6 to low 7 IMDb/$5-15 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: The fact that its going wide next week limits its appeal, but it should prove to be a solid pick regardless.


Weekend Estimates:
1.Dune: Part Two $42 mil
2.Kung Fu Panda 4 $37 mil
3.Imaginary $12 mil
4.Cabrini $7 mil
5.Bob Marley: One Love $5 mil

PTA: Love Lies Bleeding, Kung Fu Panda 4, Dune: Part Two, Problemista, Cabrini

Tune in next week when Screen breaks down a slate that includes the Mark Wahlberg dog movie, one of the biggest crowdpleasers from last year's Toronto Film Festival and one of the worst reviewed movies that screened at this year's edition of Sundance.

[Buscemi2]

I'm thinking Cabrini finishes with less than one-tenth of Sound of Freedom's gross. The audience that made that film a hit aren't going to see a film about a Catholic saint that fights for equality. In addition, faith-based movies are dead in the water again.

As for Imaginary, I'm surprised this is getting a push. IF looks scarier than this one does and that's not even a horror film.

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Preview totals:
Kung Fu Panda 4 $3.8 mil
Imaginary $725k
Cabrini $500k

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Cinemascores:

Cabrini: A
Kung Fu Panda 4: A-
Imaginary: C+

[StarLord123]

I never did the Barbenheimer double feature in theaters, but I did do a DuneFuPanda double bill yesterday. An interesting experience going from the unbridled epic tone of Dune to a safe and formulaic animated film.

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Double features of polar opposite films are a blast when the films in question are enjoyable. Wonka and Poor Things is the best one that I've done recently and I'd be delighted to have another great one soon on account of how blah the start of this year has been.

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Weekend Estimates:
Kung Fu Panda 4 $58.3 mil
Dune: Part Two $46 mil
Imaginary $10 mil
Cabrini $7.6 mil
Bob Marley: One Love $4.1 mil
Ordinary Angels $2 mil
Madame Web/Migration $1.1 mil
YOLO $840k
Wonka $600k

PTA:
Love Lies Bleeding $33.5k
Kung Fu Panda 4 $14.5k
Dune: Part Two $11.3k
Problemista $10.3k
Imaginary $3.2k

Holy hell, I lowballed the shit out of Kung Fu Panda 4 Guess Po and the gang still have plenty of juice left after all.

[numbersix]

You're not the only one.

I had a sneaking suspicion it would do well because kids have been starved of appropriate films in the cinema. Wish I had gone all-in on it

[Buscemi2]

I'm pretty surprised too. The audience reaction at my showing on Thursday night was rather muted.

[StarLord123]

My Saturday afternoon showing as expected had plenty of kids and families who seemed to be having a good time, there were quite a few laughs.

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Weekend Actuals:
1.Kung Fu Panda 4 $58 mil
2.Dune: Part Two $46.2 mil
3.Imaginary $9.9 mil
4.Cabrini $7.2 mil
5.Bob Marley: One Love $4.1 mil
6.Ordinary Angels $2 mil
7.Madame Web $1.12 mil
8.Migration $1.05 mil
9.YOLO $830,000
10.The Chosen Season 4 Episodes 7-8 $744,774

-Love Lies Bleeding $167,463

PTA:
1.Love Lies Bleeding $33,493 (5 theaters)
2.Kung Fu Panda 4 $14,372
3.Dune: Part Two $11,344
4.Problemista $10,286 (20 theaters)
5.Imaginary $3,179

-Cabrini $2,524