Screening The Releases - March 1st

[Screen203]

Last Week

On the last week before Dune: Part Two, Bob Marley: One Love held at number one, while most of the new releases underperformed. It grossed about 13.5, dropping 53 percent from last weekend's three-day, for a total of 71 m so far. While it may have another sharp fall against Dune, it should stabilize soon after, and 100 m seems likely at this point. In second, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba... grossed 11.5 m. While it is likely to be front-loaded, it could potentially hit 20 m in total. In third is Ordinary Angels, which is yet another underperformer for Lionsgate. After a delay from last year, it grossed about 6 m this weekend. While it could still show solid legs (reviews have been solid, and it received a rare A+ CinemaScore), it shouldn't gross more than 25 m in total. In fourth, Madame Web, after toxic WOM has gotten out, dropped 61 percent from last weekend's three-day and grossing almost 6 m for a total of 35 m so far. Dune: Part Two this weekend will probably cause another horrible drop, and it should finish with just 40 m. In fifth, Migration continues to take advantage of the lack of competition for families. It dropped just 25 percent from last weekend's three-day to gross almost 3 m, for a total of 120 m so far. While not a record-breaker by any means, it has done solid business after it's mediocre OW. In eighth, Drive-Away Dolls bombed, grossing just under 2.5 m, which is actually better than I expected (I was completely alone in the theater when I saw it at a Saturday night showing, the first time I can recall that ever happening to me). I don't expect good legs, either, with the arrival of Dune and poor WOM.

On the PTA side, Demon Slayer was number one among films in the game. It grossed just under 6 k per theater in almost 2,000 locations. In second, About Dry Grasses had an okay start, given the long running time. It grossed almost 5 k per theater in 3 theaters. In third was this week's top grossing film, Bob Marley: One Love. It grossed about 4 k in about 3,500 theaters. In fourth is Perfect Days, which has been over-performing a bit over the past few weeks. It grossed 2.5 k in about 250 theaters. It is actually outperforming The Worst Person... and Anatomy Of A Fall (the former by a fairly decent amount), in comparison to those two at a similar time in release. I expect it to slow down a bit this weekend, but it should still reach 3 m at the very least. In fifth was Ordinary Angels, which grossed 2 k in just over 3,000 theaters.

This Week

Dune: Part Two



This should do much better than the first. Since winning six Oscars, I feel as though the first Dune has grown in popularity. In addition, reviews have been even better than the first so far, and Warner Bros. has done a good job with the marketing campaign. The biggest factor in its favor is the lack of a day-and-date streaming release. That being said, my main concern is that Dune is kind of a niche property, even with the all-star cast, and while reviews and the marketing campaign mention more action than the first, it may be difficult to get the uninitiated in the door, who may opt for the more familiar Ghostbusters and Godzilla X Kong. I think a good comparison in terms of box office may be Mad Max: Fury Road, in particular its inflation-adjusted number. That being said, it will probably do even better outside the US, and Dune: Messiah should happen at this point.

I expect an OW of 75 m, and a total of 190 m.

It will get you 17-25 Top 5 points, 6-8 PTA points, and a score of 9 on IMDb.

I would take it in both Box Office and Ultimate.

Problemista



I feel like this had more buzz last summer when it was set to be released. After its delay, it seemed to be added back on the calendar kind of last-minute by A24, and there hasn't been much marketing since then. That being said, we seem to be at a point when most well-reviewed theatrical A24 releases reach a 25 k PTA at a minimum, so the name brand alone should be able to carry it, at least on OW.

I expect an OW PTA of 25 k, and a total of 3 m.

It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 8-12 PTA points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

It's not too bad of a choice in Ultimate, especially if you passed up on Perfect Days. Don't take it in Box Office.

Top 5

Dune: Part Two - 75 m
Bob Marley: One Love - 8 m
The Chosen: Season 4... - 4 m
Ordinary Angels - 4 m
Migration - 3 m

PTA

Problemista - 25 k
Dune: Part Two - 19 k
About Dry Grasses - 3 k
Perfect Days - 2 k
Bob Marley: One Love - 2 k

Next Week

Join transfomers for a look over a few more additions to a busy March, including Kung Fu Panda 4, Imaginary, and Cabrini, in addition to Love Lies Bleeding's limited opening.

[StarLord123]

I think Dune 2 has the potential to approach 90m. Reviews and WOM are on fire, they've taken full advantage of the strike-caused delay by having the cast out there promoting it heavily, and the past 2 months have been notoriously scarce for movies. People are ready for a large-scale epic blockbuster, which we haven't really gotten since Oppenheimer last summer. I have IMAX Laser tickets reserved for S̶a̶t̶u̶r̶d̶a̶y̶ Sunday morning and I'm so damn excited for this.

[transformers2]

90 mil feels a bit too high. While there is an undeniable appetite for a blockbuster after a sleepy start to the 2024, Dune feels like a bit too niche of a property to reach those heights, especially when you look at the ticket sales outside of the PLF showings.

[transformers2]

Dune 2 did $12 mil in previews (includes Sunday's IMAX previews)

[numbersix]

Its Thurs number is $12m at the moment, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit anywhere between 80 and 90m at this rate

[Buscemi2]

I guess the first one was a hit on streaming. I just thought it was the anti-Star Wars crowd trying to make Dune seem bigger solely because it wasn't Disney.

[numbersix]

I think it was a hit on streaming, because financially the $400m global the first made isn't exactly amazing, but then again it came out when a lot of people were still worried about COVID. Deadline are predicting a global OW of $170m or so, which would be pretty impressive

[Buscemi2]

Dune Part One was on Max at the same time it was in theatres, much to the chagrin of Villeneuve. Not sure if Warner Bros. ever announced streaming numbers but it seems like it did very well as it stayed in the public conscience for so long compared to other streaming titles.

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascore:

Dune Part Two: A

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Dune: Part Two $81.5 mil
Bob Marley: One Love $7.4 mil
Ordinary Angels $3.9 mil
Madame Web/The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8 $3.2 mil
Migration $2.5 mil
Demon Slayer $2.1 mil
Wonka $1.7 mil
Argylle $1.4 mil
The Beekeeper $1.1 mil

PTA:
Problemista $28.2k
Dune: Part Two $20k
About Dry Glasses $3.2k
Bob Marley: One Love $2.2k
Perfect Days $1.8k

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.Dune: Part Two $82.5 mil
2.Bob Marley: One Love $7.4 mil
3.Ordinary Angels $3.7 mil
4.The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 7-8 $3.3 mil
5.Madame Web $3.2 mil
6.Migration $2.5 mil
7.Demon Slayer $2.1 mil
8.Wonka $1.7 mil
9.Argylle $1.4 mil
10.The Beekeeper $1.1 mil

-Problemista $140,936

PTA:
1.Problemista $28,187
2.Dune: Part Two $20,267
3.About Dry Glasses $2,656
4.Bob Marley: One Love $2,192
5.Perfect Days $1,736

-The Chosen $1,525

[Buscemi2]

I'm amazed Problemista did that well. It looked to me like a cheap vanity project for its lead, whom I'd never even heard of until seeing the trailer.

[StarLord123]

Not quite 90m but still excellent results for Dune.