SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/23

[numbersix]

It seems love was in the air last week, or at least one love as One Love surprised pundits and defied critics by opening to a massive $52m as people got ready and were left waiting in vain to get seats for sold-out shows. With a great cinemascore and RT user rating, expect Bob’s positive vibrations to keep him at the top. Madame Web, however, unsurprisingly flopping in the wake of a laughable trailer and a waning love for superhero films. With March looking to see a box office resurgence, is there any gas left in the tank for February?




A while ago a new Coen Bros flick would be a major event. With the bros (temporarily) split, looks like the enthusiasm is halved for Drive-Away Dolls (Focus). This queer road-trip looks quirky enough to please fans of the auteurs, despite the plot feeling somewhat familiar (two friends, one outgoing, the other shy, embark on a life-changing journey). The cast includes Margaret Qualley, Beanie Feldstein, with appearances by Pedro Pascal, Matt Damon, and Miley Cyrus. A while back I was hot on this film, but Focus haven’t been doing so well recently, with Lisa Frankenstein bombing, and even Oscar-nominated The Holdovers only just hitting the $20m mark. With the lack of festival buzz around this one, don’t expect it to make even close to $10m this weekend, and even if it has good WOM it may not make $15m in total. Even in Ultimate, it could end up with 2 T5, 1 PTA, and a high 6 IMDB score. Veer away from this one.




You’re better off having faith in Ordinary Angels, Lionsgate’s latest religious film. Based on the true story of a hairdresser who tries to save an ill child during a massive snowstorm, it features Hilary Swank and Alan Ritchson, and is directed by the man behind modest faith-based hits Jesus Revolution and The Case for Christ. It’s always hard to gauge which of these films breaks out and which doesn’t, but current track has this opening in the high single-digits. That’s enough to do relatively well this weekend, and next (with Dune Pt 2 being the only game in town), so for $8 in Ultimate that isn’t a bad option, as you may get 6 T5 points, a PTA point, and a low-6 IMDB score. If you want it in BO, you better pray it performs better than expected.




Another year, another Demon Slayer film. This one, To the Hashira Training (Sony), is the 526th movie as part of the Japanese anime franchise. I’ve no idea what any of them are about, beyond slaying demons – presumably the exterior, mythical ones, as opposed to attempts to beat one’s inner addiction to 85% dark chocolate. The last one opened to $10m and made about $16m in total (reported), so expect something similar with this, making it pointless for either game.




On the limited side is About Dry Grasses (Janus/Sideshow), the latest quiet epic by Turkey’s Nuri Bilge Ceylan, whose Winter Sleep won the Palme D’Or a few years back. This drama also opened in Cannes, and despite good reviews didn’t quite explode. Perhaps due to its 200-minute runtime. That said, cineastes will be curious, and Sideshow tend not to put films out in too many screens, so this could take the PTA crown, and with a strong IMDB score this is very much worth considering in Ultimate




Also coming out is Stopmotion (IFC), the debut film of Robert Morgan. It’s a self-aware stop-motion film about a film-maker adding a monster to their stop-motion film. Despite good reviews out of Fantastic Fest and the London Film Festival, IFC won’t put much marketing into this, which will shortly end up on Shudder. A PTA point or two is possible, but I’d freeze my investment in this small film.



Predictions for the weekend

1. One Love To Rule Them All - $15m
2. Sub- Ordinary Angels - $7.5m
3. Demon Slayer Goes Bananas - $7m
4. Madame Mis-Steb - $6m
5. Driven-Away Dolls - $5m

PTA: About Dry Grasses, One Love, Perfect Days, Stopmotion, Ordinary Angels

Next week sees the return of the blockbuster, with the long-awaited Dune Pt 2 coming to save us all, as well as Problemista. Screen will break them both down.

[Buscemi2]

Marketing's been terrible for Drive-Away Dolls and Ordinary Angels. I only just saw a trailer for the former on Sunday and the film itself gives me real The Dead Don't Die vibes. With the latter, Evangelical movies are passe again and Lionsgate seems to be putting it out to pasture after having delayed it once before.

As for next week, Dune Part 2 will be interesting as we will see if this franchise really did grow in reputation after its original release or if filmbros and anti-Disney people overhyped it as they turned it into the anti-Star Wars. It could hit $200 million domestic but it wouldn't be a surprise if it didn't come close to that mark.

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascore:

Ordinary Angels: A+
Demon Slayer: B+
Drive-Away Dolls: C

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Bob Marley: One Love $13.5 mil
Demon Slayer $11.6 mil
Ordinary Angels $6.5 mil
Madame Web $6 mil
Migration $3 mil
Argylle $2.8 mil
Wonka $2.5 mil
Drive-Away Dolls $2.4 mil
The Beekeeper $2 mil
The Chosen Season 4 Episodes 4-6 $1.8 mil

PTA:
Demon Slayer $5.9k
About Dry Glasses $4.8k
Bob Marley: One Love $3.8k
Perfect Days $2.6k
Ordinary Angels $2.2k

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.Bob Marley: One Love $13.5 mil
2.Demon Slayer $11.5 mil
3.Ordinary Angels $6.2 mil
4.Madame Web $5.9 mil
5.Migration $2.9 mil
6.Argylle $2.7 mil
7.Wonka $2.5 mil
8.Drive-Away Dolls $2.4 mil
9.The Beekeeper $1.94 mil
10.The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 4-6 $1.86 mil

-Stopmotion $340,079
-About Dry Glasses $14,651

The Les Misérables Dolby Re-Issue also managed $346,550 in 142 theaters

PTA:
1.Demon Slayer $5,901
2.About Dry Glasses $4,884 (3 theaters)
3.Bob Marley: One Love $3,742
4.Perfect Days $2,563 (253 theaters)
5.Ordinary Angels $2,041

-Drive-Away Dolls $1,055
-Stopmotion $886 (384 theaters)