Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/14, 2/15

[transformers2]

History was made this past weekend as the domestic box office saw its slowest Super Bowl weekend in history (excluding 2021 where theaters were still largely nonoperational on account of COVID).

All of the releases that reported grosses combined to make a dismal $37,064,952, which is easily the worst BO results since January 28-30 2022 where all releases made just $35,052,113. Argylle ($6.2 mil) easily fended off the lone new superwide release Lisa Frankenstein ($3.7 mil) for the honor of “winning” this dreadful weekend while a trio of veteran holdovers (The Beekeeper, Wonka, Migration) that have actually made some money for their respective studios rounded out the top 5.

As tends to be the case on brutally slow weekend like this, the sole bright spots came on the specialty circuit where the proper releases of The Taste of Things and Perfect Days got off to roaring $100k+ starts with PTA's of $43.3 and $16.9k respectively. While things aren't likely to truly pick up until March when franchise flicks including Dune: Part Two, Kung Fu Panda 4 and Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire hit theaters, the silver lining for exhibitors and studios is that this should be the bleakest the box office picture looks until late August/early September at the earliest.

Wide Releases:
Heading up the charge for this Valentine's Day/President's Day frame is Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount). King Richard helmer Reinaldo Marcus Green is behind this biopic about the reggae pioneer, activist and cultural icon while Kingsley Ben-Adir takes on the role of Marley. Despite the film's decision to hone in on just one period of Marley's life (the assassination attempt he, his wife Rita and manager Don Taylor experienced at his Kingston home in 1976, his subsequent move to London for safety reasons, the writing/recording of his iconic 1977 album Exodus and his eventual return to Jamaica to perform a peace concert), the early critical consensus is that the film doesn't stray far enough from the cliched music biopic structure to be compelling.

Tracking currently has One Love making 30-35 mil from tomorrow through Monday, which sounds about right for a film about someone of Marley's stature and current cultural relevance. The question that will ultimately dictate its fate is how audiences will respond to it. Its reportedly conventional approach and lukewarm reviews aren't a death blow by any means, but there's not a great recent comp to argue for or against its long-term box prospect. The best ones that I can come up with in terms of reviews are Respect and I Wanna Dance with Somebody, but they both had unspectacular openings that are well below the expectations for One Love and wildly different holding patterns after their slow starts (Respect dipped 50+ in weekend #2 while I Wanna Dance With Somebody showed some resilience with 16% and 39% drops before it faded away in weekend #4).

The best case scenario for One Love would be a performance along the lines of Paramount's last music biopic Rocketman-which put up a $25.7 mil OW and closed out its domestic run with $96.4 mil. Does that feel like a likely outcome considering how much stronger the critical reception was for Rocketman? Probably not, but if the people embrace it like they did Marley himself, it could deify the odds and make it happen.
Price: $13 ULT/$12 BO
Predictions:$15-23 mil OW ($20-35 mil 5-day)/2-6 PTA/9-17 Top 5/mid to high 6 IMD/$45-85 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Considering the state of affairs this season and its moderate price tag, it's well worth considering.


Studio-mandated extensive reshoots on the new Captain America movie, a full-scale reboot of Warner's DC universe under new creative head James Gunn and significant production delays brought on by the strikes has left 2024 with just 4 superhero movies on the schedule as of today. 3 of these 4 titles are being brought to us by the absolute lunatics over at Sony-whose holding of the Spider-Man rights allows them the freedom to pump out films about side characters/villains from that universe that feel like they were dropped straight out of the pre-MCU era in the 2000's where standalone cheeseball anarchy still reigned supreme in the genre whenever they please. Their latest throwback to the days where films like Daredevil, Catwoman and Punisher: War Zone dominated the superhero movie space comes in the form of Madame Web (Sony/Columbia).

The film serves as an origin story for Cassandra Webb (played by Dakota Johnson), a NYC paramedic who becomes a clairvoyant after an accident. Her first order of business as a newfound psychic is becoming the reluctant guardian for a trio of future Spider-People (Sydney Sweeney, Celeste O'Connor, Isabela Merced) who are being hunted by a fellow psychic (Tahar Rahim) who also might've killed Cassie's mom in the Amazon while she was researching spiders right before she died. Thankfully, there's no potential for that setup to serve as the backbone for a big fucking mess of a movie.

This will come as a huge shock to all of the Matt Sazama and Burk Sharpless fans out there, but the reviews for Madame Web haven't been so hot! Who would've thought that giving the creative team behind Morbius another crack at writing one of these movies wouldn't work out so great!

Even prior to the expected flood of horrible reviews arrived early this morning, this shit was doomed as the trailer was widely mocked online, the character of Madame Web is among the least well-known in the world of Spider-Man and Johnson has looked like she's being held hostage during nearly every stop of the press tour. Only the horniest fans of Johnson and Sweeney and/or committed meme-loving dopes will head out to see this one (I swear I'm only in the latter category!!!). Expect a Moribus-esque performance where it does respectable-ish business during its first 5 or so days before its grosses tumble at a truly astounding rate.
Price: $15 ULT/$16 BO
Predictions:$10-25 mil OW ($18-35 mil 5-day) /1-5 PTA/5-9 Top 5/low to mid 5 IMDb/$35-75 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Barring a surprising embrace from audiences, it's not likely to be a good investment in either format.


The second batch of episodes from The Chosen: Season 4 also arrive on Thursday. Since it's the middle portion of the season, I'm expecting slightly returns than Episodes 1-3 posted 2 weeks ago, but it should still be able to flirt with $7-8 mil in ticket sales by Monday.

Weekend Predictions:
1.Bob Marley: One Love $18 mil ($28 mil 5-day)
2.Madame Web $15 mil ($22 mil 5-day)
3.The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 4-6 $5 mil ($6.5 mil 4-day)
4.Argylle $3.5 mil
5.The Beekeeper $2.5 mil

PTA: Perfect Days, Bob Marley: One Love, Madame Web, The Chosen, The Taste of Things

Tune in next week when six delivers his thoughts on a slate that includes Ethan Coen's first solo directorial effort, the latest chapter in the Demon Slayer franchise, Turkey's 2023 Best International Feature entry and the long-awaited collaboration between Christian movie veteran Jon Gunn and Kelly Fremon Craig

[StarLord123]

I'm currently 50/50 on whether I'll go see Madame Web, this thing has possibly the worst trailer I've seen for a major studio movie in a long time, and they didn't even bother releasing a 2nd trailer to try and wash out the stench. Although, I went to see all 9 theatrically released comic book movies last year, so part of me wants to keep the streak going, especially with only 5 releasing this year.

[Buscemi2]

One Love's been getting slammed by critics. At this point, it might only appeal to hardcore Bob Marley fans who can find a way to light up in the theatres.

Also, Drive-Away Dolls is Ethan's second solo directorial effort. His Jerry Lee Lewis documentary remains unreleased in the US.

[transformers2]

Wednesday numbers:
Bob Marley: One Love $14 mil
Madame Web $6.1 mil

[Buscemi2]

I am amazed by that One Love number. I guess the onslaught of ads during football helped.

Meanwhile, Cinemascores:

One Love: A
Madame Web: C+

[numbersix]

That, and it's appealing to an older audience who haven't had a film for them in a while (although the Boys in the Boat probably counts)

[Chienfantome]

I am shocked. The trailer is awful, the WOM and reviews are bad. Sometimes, the audience desire for a film is a mystery.

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
1.Bob Marley One Love $27.7 mil ($45.6 5-day)
2.Madame Web $15.2 mil ($23.4 5-day)
3.Argylle $4.7 mil
4.Migration $3.8 mil
5.The Chosen Season 4 Episodes 4-6 $3.4 mil
6.Wonka $3.4 mil
7.The Beekeeper $3.3 mil
8.Anyone But You $2.4 mil
9.Lisa Frankenstein $2 mil
10.Land of Bad $1.8 mil

PTA:
Bob Marley: One Love $7.8k
Perfect Days $6.9k
Madame Web $3.8k
The Chosen/Migration $1.5k

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.Bob Marley: One Love $28.7 mil ($46.5 mil 5-day)
2.Madame Web $15.3 mil ($23.5 mil 5-day)
3.Argylle $4.9 mil
4.Migration $3.8 mil
5.The Chosen Season 4 Episode 4-6 $3.6 mil
6.Wonka $3.5 mil
7.The Beekeeper $3.2 mil
8.Anyone But You $2.4 mil
9.Lisa Frankenstein $2.1 mil
10.Land of Bad $1.8 mil

PTA:
1.Bob Marley: One Love $8,098
2.Perfect Days $7,610 (34 theaters)
3.Madame Web $3,822
4.The Chosen $1,618
5.Migration $1,557

1st standings update for this season will be up tomorrow.