Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/1, 2/2

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What do you get when you combine no new wide releases and the second biggest Sunday of the NFL season? Really low box office turnout.

This weekend marked the slowest one at the multiplex since September 22-24 when The Nun II narrowly prevented Expend4bles from stumbling into the top spot as all of the films in releases combined to make approximately $57.4 mil. At the top of the holdover bonanza sat Mean Girls ($6.9 mil), which was able to leapfrog The Beekeeper ($6.7 mil) on Sunday thanks to the aforementioned football games to claim its third straight weekend crown. Other notable performances came from Migration-which cleared $100 mil domestic on Sunday, American Fiction and Poor Things-which saw 35+ weekend-to-weekend gains on account of their Oscar nominations and Godzilla Minus One-which returned to the top 10 with the release of its black-and-white version.

Despite the generally sleepy returns in the Top 10, there was some life on the limited front as 3 new releases (Sometimes I Think About Dying, The Peasants, Totem) all managed to clear $10k+ PTA in their debut weekends. These were all better-than-expected starts from this 2023 Sundance selection and pair of Best International Feature finalists and it'll be interesting to see if they'll be able to parlay this early success into solid limited runs once they begin expanded this coming weekend.

Wide Releases:
Kicking off tomorrow, the entirety of The Chosen: Season 4 (Angel/Fathom) will be released in theaters in 3 installments. It's a bold move from Angel and Fathom to capitalize on the increasingly large, enthusiastic following the Biblical show has picked up since it began airing in 2017. Although the show's previous theatrical engagements (typically for the season premieres and finales) have done relatively well (the Season 3 premiere made $8.8 mil in its OW in 2022-which was good enough to place at #3 for the weekend of November 18-20) , they have a tendency to fade fast once their opening weekends have past and there's no reason to believe that will change with Season 5 despite its super-sized, multi-part theatrical rollout. Ultimately, the 3-part run should fare better than the vast majority of Angel's releases, but probably won't go high enough to justify its high-single digit price tag in either game.
Price: $9 ULT/$8 BO
Predictions:$6-9 mil OW/0-6 PTA/3-12 Top 5/low to mid 8 IMDb/$18-35 mil total BO (all totals save for OW are for all 3 parts combined)
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Probably not.

Last fall saw Apple Original Films enter the major theatrical release arena with Killers of the Flower Moon and Napoleon. Now, they're trying their hands at more explicitly commercial blockbusters with the release of Argylle (Universal/Apple) to kick off their 2024 theatrical slate. The ensemble action spy comedy from Matthew Vaughn focus on a popular spy novel author (Bryce Dallas Howard) who is horrified to discover that her novels depict real events after she comes into contact with a real-life spy (Sam Rockwell) on a train. A host of plot twists, wacky espionage hijinks and beautiful people rocking wild wigs/haircuts likely follow.

Argylle has been positioned as one of the only potential pre-Dune: Part Two BO saviors since it's a big, broad PG-13 movie full of familiar faces (Henry Cavill, Samuel L. Jackson, Bryan Cranston, Catherine O' Hara, John Cena, Dua Lipa, Ariana DeBose and Sofia Boutella star alongside the aforementioned Howard and Rockwell) and a whole lot of marketing visibility-especially in theaters where the trailer has been inescapable for many moviegoers since October. That optimistic BO forecast becoming a reality seems less likely by the minute. All of the exposure its received hasn't translated to sincere buzz and while not a death sentence by any stretch given the type of movie it is, the not-so-great reviews its received since the embargo lifted today at noon EST provide it with an irritating additional hurdle to clear on a narrowing path to success. Still, if there's anytime for a movie to succeed despite all of the potential strikes against it, it's now where the top holdovers in the market have all been out for 4+ weeks as of tomorrow and a soft upcoming wide release schedule that's headlined by a seemingly doomed Sony superhero movie, a music biopic with a shaky floor and a Christian title from Lionsgate that's primary ambition is becoming the next Jesus Revolution.

Price: $17 ULT/$18 BO
Predictions: $17-27 mil OW/3-8 PTA/12-19 Top 5/low to mid 6 IMDb/$50-90 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: While I felt a lot better about it prior to the last week or so, there's so little competition out there in February that it just might stumble into success regardless of how its received by audiences.

Did you know that Scrambled (Lionsgate/Roadside) is receiving a wide-ish release this weekend? Yeah, me either. The dramedy from writer/director star Leah McKendrick played to raves at last year's SXSW, but its premise (a 34-year old woman decides to freeze her eggs after a breakup), lack of marketing and not-exactly-splashy cast (no disrespect to the great Clancy Brown, current SNL standout Ego Nwodim and Dave scene-stealer/godawful comedy movie paycheck collector Andrew Santino) seem like a formula for box office failure.
Price: $2 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $125k-$450k OW/0 PTA or Top 5/high 6 to low 7 IMDb/$250k-$850k total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: No.

Limited Releases:
The Promised Land (Magnolia) marks Nikolaj Arcel's return to his native Denmark after enduring a pretty brutal flop in Hollywood with 2017's The Dark Tower. Arcel's Danish comeback picture has gone over great so far as it competed for the Golden Lion at Venice, landed on the Best International Feature shortlist at the Oscars and put together a successful BO run in Denmark last fall. Magnolia appears to have confidence that the historical epic drama led by Mads Mikkelsen will be able to find an audience in the US as its launching in at a least couple dozen theaters right away. While that's not great news for its PTA odds, maybe it's status as a more mainstream international feature will be enough for to squeak out some points on this slow weekend.
Price: $3 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions:$35-$90k OW/0-2 PTA/0 Top 5/mid to high 7 IMDb/$85-$500k total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Probably not.

Speaking of buzzy European festival debuts making their way stateside, Cannes' reigning Un Certain Regard Prize winner How to Have Sex (MUBI) is also on the arthouse docket for this week. The British coming-of-age drama that marks the feature directorial debut for Molly Manning Walker has won raves for its alternately funny, free-spirited and tragic portrayal of growing up through the lens of a trio 16-year old girls (Mia McKenna-Bruce, Lara Peake, Enva Lewis) trying to find themselves on a vacation to the Greek Island of Crete. Given the degree of acclaim its received, it should be able to put together the best debut for a MUBI title since Passages ($21,092 OW PTA) last August. How it fares after that is kind of a mystery as MUBI has yet to have a movie expand particularly well since they started putting movies in theaters domestically about 18 months ago. On the bright side, How to Have Sex is entering a far less competitive marketplace than Passages and Decision to Leave did-so there's a definitely a good chance it becomes the indie distributor's first title to earn double digit PTA points in our game.
Price: $4 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $25-$60k OW/7-11 PTA/0 Top 5/$65-$250k total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Absolutely.

The infallible internet has conflicting information on whether or not The Monk and the Gun (Roadside) will bow in theaters this week or next week. Regardless of when it actually releases, Bhutan's first-ever Oscar-shortlisted film feels like a candidate for only a couple of PTA points at best.
Price: $2 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions:$20-50k OW/0-3 PTA/0 Top 5/$40-$100k total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: No.

Weekend Predictions:
1.Argylle $18 mil
2.The Chosen: Season 4-Episodes 1-3 $6 mil
3/4.Mean Girls/The Beekeeper $4 mil
5.Wonka $3.5 mil

PTA: How to Have Sex, The Peasants, Argylle, Totem, The Chosen

Tune in next week when Screen discusses Diablo Cody's return to the world of horror comedy, a pair of acclaimed 2023 international titles finally getting released domestically and a horror film that's in an entirely made-up language.

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I could see Argylle being one of the biggest money losers in recent memory. The reviews are dreadful, the trailer isn't good, and Universal has redone the ad campaign in the last few weeks to de-emphasize the leads and focus it on Cavill instead, who's hardly in the trailer. This will continue Vaughn's cold streak that began with The King's Man.

As for The Chosen, I'm getting the feeling the bloom is off the rose on this series. The show is seemingly on every streaming service known to man and episodes run on multiple channels and the last Christmas with the Chosen special didn't even report box office. I get the feeling many of the show's fans will simply wait for the season to air on TV or appear on streaming instead of shelling out the $45 per ticket to see the season in a theatre.

Lastly, Bhutan has had a movie shortlisted for the Oscars in the past. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom was nominated for Best International Feature Film two years ago.

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I'd be surprised if this thing got a cinemascore higher than C+.

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Cinemascore:

Argylle: C+

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Weekend Estimates:
Argylle $18 mil
The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 1-3 $6 mil ($7.5 mil 4-day)
The Beekeeper $5.3 mil
Wonka $4.8 mil
Migration $4.1 mil
Mean Girls $4 mil
Anyone But You $3.5 mil
American Fiction $2.3 mil
Poor Things $2.1 mil
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom $2 mil

PTA:
How to Have Sex $13k
Argylle $5k
Totem $3.3k
The Chosen $2.7k
The Zone of Interest $1.9k

No world on Scrambled, The Promised Land or The Monk & the Gun yet (the latter of which is probably because it's opening next week after all)

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Weekend Actuals:
1.Argylle $17.5 mil
2.The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 1-3 $5.9 mil
3.The Beekeeper $5.3 mil
4.Wonka $4.7 mil
5.Migration $4.2 mil
6.Mean Girls $3.8 mil
7.Anyone But You $3.5 mil
8.American Fiction $2.4 mil
9.Poor Things $2.2 mil
10.Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom $2 mil

-Scrambled $249,788
-The Promised Land $121,505
-How to Have Sex $48,596

PTA:
1.How to Have Sex $12,149 (4 theaters)
2.Argylle $4,847
3.Totem $3,338 (5 theaters)
4.The Chosen $2,605
5.The Peasants $2,172 (3 theaters)

-The Promised Land $633 (192 theaters)
-Scrambled $328 (762 theaters)

The Monk & the Gun will indeed be releasing this week.