Tranny Tackles The Cinema: The FIlms of 1/19

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After almost 20 years away from the silver screen, America still loves the Plastics.

Mean Girls '24 was able to overcome the semi-secret that it was a musical reimagining of the 2004 teen comedy classic to pull off a solid $28.6 mil 3-day opening. How it fares now that the word is fully out that it's a musical remains up in the air, but the lack of true wide releases of note until Argylle arrives 2 weeks from now should work in its favor.

In a case of counterprogramming gone right, the Jason Statham vehicle The Beekeeper delivered a better-than-expected $16.6 mil debut in the shadow of Mean Girls. That's over $6 mil more than Gerard Butler's Plane made on the same weekend a year ago and if Statham's honey-slinging killing machine can parlay its good WOM into a strong multiplier like Plane did, it should finish its run somewhere in the $50-65 million range. Not too shabby for a true throwback B-action movie.

The other two wide releases on the schedule didn't join in Mean Girls and The Beekeper in the land of box office success stories. The Book of Clarence ended up barley cracking the top 10 with a disastrous $2.6 mil start that reinforced the belief that it was too ambitious for faith-based audiences and too religious for everybody else while Disney's first nationwide theatrical release of Soul fared even worse with a measly $431,840 from 1,350 theaters-which doesn't bode well for the imminent theatrical releases of Turning Red and Luca.

On the holdover market, the biggest winners of the holiday season (Wonka, Anyone But You, Migration) remained in the top 5 while Night Swim and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom took their expected tumble off the podium with 50%+ drops-which were easily the highest among films that placed in the top 10. If their current holding trends remain in tact, Wonka, Anyone But You and Migration should be able to hit the next major BO milestone that lies in front of them ($200 mil for Wonka, $75 mil for Anyone But You, $100 mil for Migration) by the end of the month. As for Night Swim and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, it's time for Universal and WB to start projecting their streaming metrics because their days on theater marquees are officially numbered.

Wide Release:
A thriller about American and Russian astronauts on the International Space Station being pitted against each other after war breaks out between their nations back on Earth is the kind of fare that should excel during January. Unfortunately, I.S.S. (Bleecker Street) won't get the chance to on account of who's releasing it. Bleecker Street has never really figured out how to handle their rare wide releases and while this one appears to have more marketing juice behind it than some of the other recent titles they've employed this strategy with (Breaking, Mr. Malcolm's List, Mafia Mamma) given its trailer placements on titles like Godzilla: Minus One, The Boy and the Heron and The Iron Claw and prominent banner ads across several film websites (IMDb, Rotten Tomatoes, Metacritic), it likely won't be enough for this Ariana DeBose-led project to break into the top 5 on this holdover-dominated weekend.
Price: $4 ULT/$3 BO
Predictions: $1-4 mil OW/0-1 PTA/0-1 Top 5/low to mid 6 IMDb/$3-12 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Nope.


Limited Releases:
Origin (Neon) marks Ava DuVernay's return to intimate dramatic filmmaking after the major speedbump that was her 2018 blockbuster A Wrinkle in Time. The film-which is inspired by Isabel Wilkerson's 2020 novel Caste: The Origins of Our Discontents not only deals with the novel's material about the role systematic racism has played in the formation of the current landscape in the United States and how it mirrors other societies around the globe throughout history, but how the researching and writing of the book allowed to her overcome the grief she endured following the death of her husband in 2015.

Neon snatched up the rights to Origin following its Venice premiere in September with plans to give it a major awards push. While there certainly has been efforts from them along with DuVernay and star Anjanue Ellis-Taylor-who plays Wilkerson-to get the word out, they've yet to be proven fruitful as the film has gotten 0 nominations and it's highly unlikely that changes with the Oscars (its absence on the shortlists confirm it will be absent from tomorrow's BAFTA noms).

Without the benefit of an awards bump, Neon will have to turn to audience WOM for Origin to catch on. They've already started their efforts with its successful awards-qualifying run last month in which the film banked an impressive $58.2k per theater and screenings as part of AMC's Screen Unseen series 2 weeks ago with additional early access screenings planned in the coming weeks as the film starts to rollout to more markets. A heavy drama with journalism, race and grief at its center seems like a tough sell for audiences, but the film did reportedly test through the roof, so maybe people will end up responding to it and Neon can get a decent return on investment.

As for this weekend, it should do just fine even with the reduced demand from its NYC/LA runs in December. DuVernay is a known, respected filmmaker on the indie circuit and the reviews have been strong enough to warrant interest from the older set-especially since it has the benefit of having some distance from the release of Poor Things, All of Us Strangers, American Fiction and all of the other prestige pics that have hit theaters over the last 6 weeks or so. It should easily take the PTA crown this week and possibly even flirt with double digits if the likes of Totem, Sometimes I Think About Dying. How to Have Sex and The Promised Land struggle to find traction in the coming weeks.
Price: $5 ULT/$3 BO
Predictions: $75-250k OW/7-15 PTA/0-2 Top 5/high 6 to low 7 IMDb/$5-18 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: It's definitely worth considering, especially ULT given how few releases of note are arriving in theaters over the next few weeks.


Inside the Yellow Cocoon Shell (Kino Lorber) is the reigning winner of Cannes' Camera d'or (the prize for Best First Feature), giving it an undeniable prestige pedigree as it finally arrives in US theaters. The problem is that its a nearly 3-hour abstract, existentialist drama from a first-time Vietnamese filmmaker-which likely means that only the biggest lovers of international cinema will seek it out. That being said, it's guaranteed to have a single digit theater count this weekend, which gives it real PTA appeal on a weekend that is so light on new releases.
Price: $2 ULT/$1 BO
$4k-$12k OW/0-4 PTA/0 Top 5/mid to high 6 IMDb/$10-30k total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: If you're in the market for a $2 ULT pick that has a real chance to nab some PTA points, it should fill that role admirably.


Weekend Predictions:
1.Mean Girls $15 mil
2.The Beekeeper $10 mil
3.Wonka $6 mil
4.Anyone But You $5 mil
5.Migration $4 mil

-I.S.S. $2 mil

PTA: Origin, The Zone of Interest, Mean Girls, The Beekeeper, Inside the Yellow Cocoon Shell

Tune in next week when Screen breaks down a slate that includes a Jenna Ortega project that Lionsgate is barely acknowledging, a pair of Best International Feature submissions and a 2023 Sundance acquisition that's finally making its way to theaters.

[Buscemi2]

If Moonfall couldn't clear $20 million total, I.S.S. won't clear $5 million total. This one feels like it was picked up more for the post-theatrical potential.

As for Origin, did anyone even read the book this was based on? Along with the trailers giving no idea what the film is even about, I feel this one's box office potential peaked during its Oscar run back in December and it will end up being another flop for Neon.

I imagine Mean Girls and The Beekeeper drop harder, as the Cinemascores weren't too impressive compared to similar titles aimed towards similar audiences.

Lastly, I'll be surprised if Miller's Girl reports. I'm expecting the same treatment the producers' Cobweb got back in July.

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Cinemascore:

I.S.S.: C-

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Weekend Estimates:
Mean Girls $11.7 mil
The Beekeeper $8.5 mil
Wonka $6.4 mil
Anyone But You $5.4 mil
Migration $5.3 mil
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom $3.7 mil
I.S.S. $3 mil
Night Swim $2.7 mil
The Boys in the Boat $2.5 mil
Poor Things $2 mil

PTA:
Origin $7k
Inside the Yellow Cocoon Shell $6.3k
The Zone of Interest $5.5k
Mean Girls $3.1k
The Beekeeper $2.6k

[Buscemi2]

I'm surprised I.S.S. even hit $3 million. This seemed like you're typical Bleecker Street title that fails to clear a million opening weekend.

But it seems like it got a few thousand theatres as LD Entertainment productions tend to get decent-sized rollouts.

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Weekend Actuals:
1.Mean Girls $11.7 mil
2.The Beekeeper $8.6 mil
3.Wonka $6.7 mil
4.Migration $5.5 mil
5.Anyone But You $5.4 mil
6.Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom $3.7 mil
7.I.S.S. $3.1 mil
8.Night Swim $2.8 mil
9.The Boys in the Boat $2.5 mil
10.Poor Things $2.1 mil

-Origin $826,235
-Inside The Yellow Cocoon Shell $14,822

PTA:
1.Inside the Yellow Cocoon Shell $7,411 (2 theaters)
2.Origin $6,610 (125 theaters)
3.The Zone of Interest $5,460 (82 theaters)
4.Mean Girls $3,048
5.The Beekeeper $2,584

-I.S.S. $1,216