SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/12
Posted: January 9th, 2024, 5:16 pm
Holidays are over! Yet holidays are back! You Yanks are an odd bunch, having only 6 major national public holidays a year, with three of them happening in the space of three weeks. Anyway, it’s MLK day this week, and there’s no better way to honour the civil rights activist than watch a bunch of white people dance and/or fight on the silver (well, white) screen.
Stop trying to make Mean Girls (Paramount) happen, cried many a misogynist or sad cynic. But the 2004 highschool comedy clung to the cultural consciousness, remaining a key film of the noughties. And now it’s back, in musical form. The film begat a broadway hit which has now begat this film, starring newcomers Angourie Rice and Reneé Rapp, alongside the more familiar adult actors Jon Hamm and Jenna Fischer, and of course Tina Fey who wrote both original and musical. And while musicals don’t always spell success (ahem ahem West Side Story and In the Heights), this has enough good buzz behind it and lack of competition to pirouette to the top of the box office. Expect it to make $25-$30m for the 4-day, and around $80m in total. It could even go higher, with so little out for the rest of the month. So, you could see 15+ T5 points, 6+ PTA points, and a mid 6 IMDB score. In both BO and Ultimate, this is going to deliver and potentially be one of the best picks of the season, so do yourself a favour and fetch it.
The Beekeeper (MGM) is an action film that sadly doesn’t feature bees as a projectile weapon. What a waste of a title. It’s actually David “Angry man” Ayers’ latest, featuring Jason Statham and his single facial expression as he exacts revenge on the people responsible for his neighbour’s death. Now that’s a good neighbour. Mine just leaves their trash out on the shared balcony. Anyway, this looks like a typical January filler film, with little buzz and a very modest theatrical return. $10m for the 4-day and $30m max feels about right. Lack of competition may get it 5 T5, 1 PTA, and a high 5s in IMDB, which doesn’t feel worth the $8.
Even less compelling is The Book of Clarence (Sony). Despite it being Jeymes Samuel’s latest (after western The Harder They Fall), this biblical comedy failed to find a festival to launch in, settling on the B-grade London Film Festival. Reviews have been muted on this story of a man who pretends to be the next messiah (and instead is a very naughty boy). The Life of Brian this is not, and it doesn’t look like it will register with a general audience or the religious demographic. It will struggle to make $10m over the 4 days, and won’t earn enough in Ultimate to tempt you into spending $7.
Disney are releasing some of its stream-only Pixar titles, with this week seeing Soul hit the cinema. It’s to fill the empty screens, and with the film being easily available on Disney+, don’t expect a huge result, even if it’s one of the studio’s better animations of the past few years.
And finally, on the limited front MUBI are putting out The Settlers, a Chilean Western about the genocide of an indigenous tribe. It opened in Cannes to great reviews, although the buzz isn’t as strong as some of MUBI’s other titles. That said, it should get a few PTA points this weekend, as the awards films continue to expand, so it may be worth $3 in Ultimate as a stocking filler.
Predictions for the weekend
1. Mean Girls Girls Girls - $25m ($30m 4-day)
2. Not So Wonky - $8m (11m 4-day)
3. The Buzzkeeper - $8m (10m 4-day)
4. Anyone But You - $7m (8.5m 4-day)
5. Migration - $6m (7.5 4-day)
PTA: Mean Girls, The Zone of Interest, The Settlers, All of Us Strangers, Wonka
Next week sees the release of sorta-wide films Origin, I.S.S, and proper limited film Inside the Yellow Cocoon Shell. Tranny will spill the tea.
Stop trying to make Mean Girls (Paramount) happen, cried many a misogynist or sad cynic. But the 2004 highschool comedy clung to the cultural consciousness, remaining a key film of the noughties. And now it’s back, in musical form. The film begat a broadway hit which has now begat this film, starring newcomers Angourie Rice and Reneé Rapp, alongside the more familiar adult actors Jon Hamm and Jenna Fischer, and of course Tina Fey who wrote both original and musical. And while musicals don’t always spell success (ahem ahem West Side Story and In the Heights), this has enough good buzz behind it and lack of competition to pirouette to the top of the box office. Expect it to make $25-$30m for the 4-day, and around $80m in total. It could even go higher, with so little out for the rest of the month. So, you could see 15+ T5 points, 6+ PTA points, and a mid 6 IMDB score. In both BO and Ultimate, this is going to deliver and potentially be one of the best picks of the season, so do yourself a favour and fetch it.
The Beekeeper (MGM) is an action film that sadly doesn’t feature bees as a projectile weapon. What a waste of a title. It’s actually David “Angry man” Ayers’ latest, featuring Jason Statham and his single facial expression as he exacts revenge on the people responsible for his neighbour’s death. Now that’s a good neighbour. Mine just leaves their trash out on the shared balcony. Anyway, this looks like a typical January filler film, with little buzz and a very modest theatrical return. $10m for the 4-day and $30m max feels about right. Lack of competition may get it 5 T5, 1 PTA, and a high 5s in IMDB, which doesn’t feel worth the $8.
Even less compelling is The Book of Clarence (Sony). Despite it being Jeymes Samuel’s latest (after western The Harder They Fall), this biblical comedy failed to find a festival to launch in, settling on the B-grade London Film Festival. Reviews have been muted on this story of a man who pretends to be the next messiah (and instead is a very naughty boy). The Life of Brian this is not, and it doesn’t look like it will register with a general audience or the religious demographic. It will struggle to make $10m over the 4 days, and won’t earn enough in Ultimate to tempt you into spending $7.
Disney are releasing some of its stream-only Pixar titles, with this week seeing Soul hit the cinema. It’s to fill the empty screens, and with the film being easily available on Disney+, don’t expect a huge result, even if it’s one of the studio’s better animations of the past few years.
And finally, on the limited front MUBI are putting out The Settlers, a Chilean Western about the genocide of an indigenous tribe. It opened in Cannes to great reviews, although the buzz isn’t as strong as some of MUBI’s other titles. That said, it should get a few PTA points this weekend, as the awards films continue to expand, so it may be worth $3 in Ultimate as a stocking filler.
Predictions for the weekend
1. Mean Girls Girls Girls - $25m ($30m 4-day)
2. Not So Wonky - $8m (11m 4-day)
3. The Buzzkeeper - $8m (10m 4-day)
4. Anyone But You - $7m (8.5m 4-day)
5. Migration - $6m (7.5 4-day)
PTA: Mean Girls, The Zone of Interest, The Settlers, All of Us Strangers, Wonka
Next week sees the release of sorta-wide films Origin, I.S.S, and proper limited film Inside the Yellow Cocoon Shell. Tranny will spill the tea.