Screening The Releases - January 5th

[Screen203]

Last Week

What initially seemed like a very rough holiday season turned out to not be so bad overall, due to a diverse variety of options for audiences to choose from. Number one went to Wonka, which has had a very solid run throughout the holidays. Over the 3-day, it grossed 22.5 m (up 25 percent from the previous week), and over the 4-day it grossed about 29 m, for a total so far of almost 140 m. Legs should continue to be solid after the holidays, and it should pass 200 m with ease. In second is a film that will certainly be less successful for Warner Bros, but could have done worse than it has currently. Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom dropped 33 percent from the last 3-day this weekend to gross 18 m. Over the 4-day, it grossed about 23.5 m, for a total so far of almost 82 m. It should be able to pass The Flash, at the very least. In third, Migration also has outperformed very low expectations. Over the 3-day, it grossed 17 m (a 37 percent increase from last week), and over the 4-day, it grossed 22 m for a total so far of 59 m. While these numbers are very low for an Illumination film, they are still decent for an original animated film with a lower budget. It should be able to reach 125 m at the very least. In fourth is The Color Purple. After a very strong 18 m opening day (the second highest Christmas Day opening ever), it has proven to be very front-loaded. Over the 3-day, it grossed almost 12 m, and it grossed about 14 m over the 4-day for a total of almost 47 m so far. While these aren't horrible numbers for a musical with pretty heavy subject matter (it has already surpassed the West Side Story remake from 2021), after the opening day I expected a lot more. A total of 65-70 m seems about right.

One of the biggest surprises of the holidays has been Anyone But You. After a soft start, positive WOM has helped it grow over time. Over the 3-day, it grossed almost 9 m, which gives it a nearly 50 percent increase from its OW. Over the 4-day, it grossed about 11.5 m, for a total so far of nearly 28 m. It seems like it should be able to reach 45-50 m at the very least. Another surprise success followed Anyone But You in sixth place, as The Boys In The Boat followed up a strong Christmas Day gross (nearly 6 m) with a 3-day of about 8.5 m, and a 4-day of about 11 m over the New Year's weekend. It also seems to be headed towards a 45-50 m final (so far, it has grossed about 25 m), though like Anyone But You, it could definitely gross more in the end. In seventh was another sports-themed film, The Iron Claw. Over the 3-day, it grossed 5 m, a 4 percent increase from last weekend; it grossed almost 7 m over the 4-day, for a total of 18 m so far. It should be headed for a total of around 30 m; interestingly enough, A24 has never had a film gross in between 30-40 m in the US. Unless it completely collapses next week, The Iron Claw should be the first to do so. Following The Iron Claw is yet another film with a sports theme. Ferrari, however, hasn't been quite as successful as the former two. After a debut of almost 3 m on Christmas Day, Ferrari still hasn't picked up the pace. Over the 3-day, it grossed just about 4 m, and it had a 5 m 4-day for a total of almost 12 m so far. I don't expect future legs to be any better, and a total under 20 m is definitely a possibility.

In terms of PTA, All Of Us Strangers is still number one. Without any change in its theater count, it grossed an average of 19 k in 6 theaters. The Zone Of Interest is also doing well, with an increase in PTA to gross an average of 16 k per theater, also in 6 theaters. In third is Memory, which grossed a PTA of about 12 k in 2 theaters. In fourth is American Fiction, which has been expanding well so far. In 40 theaters, it grossed an average of about 10 k per theater. In fifth is Wonka, which grossed 5.5 k per theater.


This Week

Night Swim



The first film to come out of the newly merged Blumhouse and Atomic Monster doesn't seem to be reinventing the wheel in terms of horror. There hasn't been an extensive amount of marketing, and overall buzz feels low. That being said, (typically PG-13 and supernatural-themed) horror always finds somewhat of an audience in early January, and there won't be much in the way of competition for the next month in terms of horror (though Anyone But You and Mean Girls: The Musical will probably take away some of its audience), so it may have a bit better legs than typical of early January horror.

I expect an OW of 11 m, and a total of 28 m.

It will get you 3-4 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a score of 6 on IMDb.

I wouldn't say to take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Mayhem!



There hasn't been much in the way of buzz for this. Considering it is often difficult to open genre films in limited release, I don't expect this to do much.

I expect an OW PTA under 5 k, and a total under 1 m.

It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.



Top 5

Wonka - 15 m
Migration - 13 m
Night Swim - 13 m
Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom - 10 m
Anyone But You - 7 m

PTA

The Zone Of Interest
All Of Us Strangers
Memory
American Fiction
Wonka

Next Week

Join six for a look over multiple new releases, including Mean Girls: The Musical, The Beekeeper, and The Book Of Clarence.

Until then, a belated Happy New Year to everyone here!

[transformers2]

Night Swim did $1.45 mil in previews, which should put it somewhere in the low-to-mid teens for the weekend

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascore:

Night Swim: C

On a related note, I found an entertaining takedown of Night Swim on Reddit, pointing out how the movie fails not because of the horror elements, but because the film has no understanding of how Major League Baseball's Collective Bargaining Agreement works.

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Wonka $14.4 mil
Night Swim $12 mil
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom $10.6 mil
Migration $10.3 mil
Anyone But You $9.5 mil
The Boys in the Boat $6 mil
The Color Purple $4.8 mil
The Iron Claw $4 mil
Ferrari $2.5 mil
Poor Things $2 mil

-Mayhem! $6.8k

PTA:
The Zone of Interest $14.4k
All of Us Strangers $10.1k
American Fiction $8.8k
The Teacher's Lounge $4.4k
Wonka $3.8k

[Buscemi2]

If All of Us Strangers does as well in smaller markets as it has in big markets, that could end up being a solid Waiver Wire pick.

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.Wonka $14.1 mil
2.Night Swim $11.8 mil
3.Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom $10.6 mil
4.Migration $10 mil
5.Anyone But You $9.8 mil (+11%!)
6.The Boys in the Boat $5.6 mil
7.The Color Purple $4.6 mil
8.The Iron Claw $4.5 mil (-3%)
9.Ferrari $2.5 mil
10.Poor Things $2 mil (-13%)

-Mayhem! $6,001

PTA:
1.The Zone of Interest $14,383 (6 theaters)
2.All of Us Strangers $10,246 (40 theaters)
3.American Fiction $8,655 (114 theaters)
4.The Teacher's Lounge $4,168 (3 theaters)
5.Wonka $3,688

-Night Swim $3,630
-Mayhem! $250 (24 theaters)