SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/15

[numbersix]

Just when you think you know a domestic box office, and enjoys its company while using incognito browsers to watch very specialised and illicit websites of sultry, foreign box office, good ol USA surprises you. Two weeks ago Godzilla Minus One became the most successful live-action Japanese-language film in the US box office, and then last week the latest Studio Ghibli film, and possibly the last by its visionary Hiyao Miyazaki, The Boy and the Heron topped the box-office and will be the most successful Ghibli film to date. On top of that, the latest pic by Greek weirdo Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things, opened to a superb PTA, and aims to perform well as it expands wide this weekend. This, my friends, is the sexy cheerleader outfit of US cinema distribution. But of course, it was a quiet weekend, and now things are heating up for winter.




Oompa loompa doompety doo, I’ve got an unconvincing franchise for you

A faltering Hollywood continues to find ways to milk established IP, regardless of audience interest or not. And so we have Wonka (Warner Bros), a prequel to the beloved 70s Roald Dahl adaptation. Which, you may be surprised to hear, was a massive bomb on its release, and only became the cherished Christmas flick when it hit TV. Anyway, this is the story of the origins of the factory we all know we want to visit (besides diabetics. But no one wants them). Gen Y’s favourite twink Timothée Chalamet plays the titular character, although many claim Hugh Grant, as the first Oompa Loompa Wonka encounters, steals the show.

Indeed, reviews have been strong, with many comparing it favourably to director Paul King’s and writer Simon Farnaby’s Paddington films, and less so Tim Burton’s hideous remake of the original (which, admittedly was a financial success, making $200 domestic). While there’s not a huge amount of buzz or anticipation about this film, I’ve a suspicion this may be the Christmas hit. It’s clearly 4-quadrant, isn’t a tired superhero movie featuring a possibly unfairly maligned actress, or an animated movie that has failed to garner any interest. That doesn’t mean it’s going to blow the box office up this weekend, but expect good WOM to keep families returning across silly season. Some are a predicting a 40-50m opening, but I’m going to presume mid-30s, with an excellent hold across the month and into January. Expect $150m in the end, which I think will be more than what Aquaman 2 will squirt out. That’s not great for $31 in Box Office, though, but as your tentpole pick it might just work. In Ultimate expect 10 T5 points, 4 PTA, and a mid 6 IMDB score. Again, not amazing in Ultimate and Aquaman 2 may get you a similar score in all but BO, so beware the chocolate man.

During the summer we had Barbenheimer, and this Xmas we have Zone of Fiction, the battle of arthouse titans.




American Fiction (MGM) is a satire about an African American scribe who decides to write a stereotypical book only to obtain fame he never imagined. Starring Jeffrey Wright, and directed by Cord Jefferson, this is the little film that possibly can. It won the Audience Award in Toronto, which usually results in widespread success (even films as bad as Green Book), and plenty of award wins. And while this well-reviewed film does look appealing on every (Ultimate) level, it’s strangely not as buzzy as some of the other indies this year, such as Poor Things. Opening in around 10 theatres this weekend, it’s going to do well, but $5 in Ultimate and $4 in BO feel a tad too high, unless you feel it will blow up and make $25m +.




On the other hand, The Zone of Interest (A24) is a cert for Ultimate. Jonathan Glazer’s (of Under the Skin and Sexy Beast) latest deals with a family with a Nazi at the top of the table, enjoying their lives despite the concentration camp next door. It’s a cold, stark, brutal film, that will leave every viewer deeply uncomfortable. It received rave reviews and has won many awards, and was robbed of the prized Palm D’Or award in Cannes, in my humble opinion. With hipsters-turned-moguls A24 pushing it, and its theatres count of 4, this should win the weekend, and scrape a few more for us curmudgeons lacking in any Christmas spirit. It should expand slower than American Fiction, which goes wide next week, making it a better Ultimate pick with 7-8 PTA points, $5m in BO, and a mid-7 IMDB score. Achtung! Nab it!


Predictions for the weekend

1. Wonka - $35m
2. The Boy and the Heron - $6m
3. The Hunger Games Minus 5 - $5m
4. Godzilla Minus One - $4.5m
5. Keep on Trolling - $4m

PTA: The Zone of Interest, American Fiction, Wonka, Poor Things, Origin (if it’s still playing)

Next week sees the Christmas cheer spread throughout our cinemas, with three wide releases (Aquaman 2, Migration, and Anyone But you), and All Of Us Stranger, and The Iron Claw (which may go wide) getting limited releases.

[Buscemi2]

Wonka looks like a bomb to me. First of all, why does this movie exist when Burton's Wonka adaptation already had an origin story? Second, American critical reception hasn't been too hot. I think it struggles to hit $100 million.

[numbersix]

I don't remember the origin story in Burton's version. I presume it was in dialogue and not dramatised in any major way. I recall it being pretty similar to the original, or the book itself.

[Buscemi2]

It's a pretty decent-sized part of the 2005 Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. There are the scenes with his father, how Willy discovered the Oompa-Loompas, and how the issues with his father led him to become a chocolatier.

[numbersix]

It wasn't really enough to nullify the existence of this film, with a different take, tone, and it being 18 years later.

[transformers2]

Completely agree with six on Wonka. It's the kind of movie that's built to hang around at this time of the year and with this being only the 3rd ever Wonka film, franchise fatigue won't be a factor. Unless Migration really catches on, I believe it will be the highest-grossing film released this month.

Also, here are a few notes that I can't stop myself from sharing:
-The Iron Claw is going wide right away.

-American Fiction has shifted to a slower rollout and won't go wide until sometime in January.

-Origin is only a 1-week Oscar qualifying run (which is why it wasn't in the game). It's conventional theatrical release begins on January 19th.

[Buscemi2]

I saw the trailer for Origin before Maestro today. I have no idea what this one is even about other than someone writes a book and Ava DuVernay directed it.

[numbersix]

Origin very much feels like a nuanced, niche, film that Neon is trying to promote with that audience test news. I doubt it will break out.

[transformers2]

Yeah, I'm a little bit puzzled by Neon's attempt to position it as some big crowdpleaser. Guess they need to find some angle to justify buying it now that its award prospects are looking really grim.

[transformers2]

Wonka did $3.5 mil in previews

[Buscemi2]

So that translates to what, an opening under $30 million?

[transformers2]

Almost certainly higher. Into the Spider-Verse did $3.5 mil in previews on the same weekend 5 years ago and made $35 mil, so it could presumably get up to $40+ if it plays well throughout the weekend.

[Buscemi2]

I was going by recent examples, such as The Hunger Games and Napoleon, in which the multiplier was under 10. Word-of-mouth must be insanely good for it to end up above 10.

[transformers2]

Let's take a look at how some other recent family titles have performed (excluding Wish and Mutant Mayhem-which opened mid-week and Paw Patrol-which didn't hold previews):
Trolls Band Together: $1.3 mil previews/$30.6 mil OW
Haunted Mansion: $3.1 mil previews/$24.1 mil OW
Elemental: $2.4 mil previews/$29.5 mil OW

It would take a pretty huge faceplant for Wonka to finish under $30 mil for the weekend, especially since it has the substantial PLF presence that the above films lacked.

[numbersix]

Deadline has it at $35m for the weekend, which feels about right. As Tranny said, preview-to-weekend multipliers for family films tend to be higher than other films.