Tranny Tackles The Cinema: The Films of 12/8

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Chalk up another victory for AMC in the concert movie space.

Beyonce's Renaissance enjoyed the highest first weekend of December opening since 2003's The Last Samurai with its $21.8 mil debut (Fun fact: The Last Samurai's $24.3 OW is still the all time best for this weekend). Sure, those aren't Eras Tour numbers, but it's still the fourth best debut ever for the genre and provided further confirmation that this concert film revival among the industry's biggest names won't be stopping for a while.

2 slots behind Beyonce came another solid debut in Godzilla Minus One. The first Japanese Godzilla flick to be widely released in US theaters (in the modern era at least) mustered up an $11.4 mil opening, which is especially impressive given its minimal PLF footprint following its Wednesday preview screenings. Safe to say, it won't be the last Japanese Godzilla flick to hit theaters stateside.

Aside from those solid debuts, it was a predictably quiet weekend. The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes continued to hold strong with a 51% post-Thanksgiving weekend drop, Wish and Napoleon both endured 60+% second weekend drops on the backs of their so-so WOM and William Oldroyd's psychological thriller Eileen led the limited crop with a modest $15,548 PTA pull from just 6 theaters-which doesn't bode well for its wide-ish expansion this weekend.

Wide Release:
On the domestic front at least, Hayao Miyazaki seems poised to make history with The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS). The Japanese filmmaking icon seems poised to not only earn his first #1 debut in the US/Canada, but have a new top earning film in the territories as The Boy and the Heron-which is currently tracking in the low teens for the weekend-should be able to top Ponyo's gross of $15.1 mil by the middle of next week at the latest. Now, is the former only possible because of the absurdly soft marketplace its entering? Yes. But it's still a cool milestone and a testament to the growing reverence his films have picked up internationally-especially among younger generations that have really embraced Japanese animation. Forecasting how it'll fare after this weekend is tricky with Wonka, Migration, Aquaman and the flood of other titles hitting theaters over the next couple weeks, but even if it fades away quickly, no one will be able to take away the records its smashed or the warmth of its reception.
Price: $5 ULT/$5 BO
Predictions: $8-16 mil OW/3-7 PTA/7-11 Top 5/mid to high 7 IMDB/ $20-45 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Yes


Limited Releases:
Poor Things (Searchlight) is the latest awards contender to make its way into theaters during the home stretch of 2023 and by all accounts, it's one of the most hotly anticipated of this year's crop. This feminist dark comedy/high fantasy flick marks the second collabration between Greek auteur Yorgos Lanthimos and British screenwriter Tony McNamara after 2018's The Favourite. Like their previous film, Poor Things made quite the splash on the festival circuit, playing to raves in Telluride, London, New York and Venice-where took it took home the festival's top prize the Golden Lion. Joining Lanthimos, McNamara and the film itself in the Oscar conservation are several members of the cast (Emma Stone, Mark Ruffalo, Wilem Dafoe), cinematographer Robbie Ryan-also returning from The Favourite and just about every other technical category from editing to costume design to makeup and hairstyling.

To put it more succinctly, this means that Poor Things is positioned to clean up on the limited circuit in a way that few films in recent memory have. Even with a 9-theater launch this weekend, a $100k+ PTA debut is very much in the cards and it should be able to break $25+k once it expands to 30-50 theaters next weekend. Of course, its eccentric surrealist style and frequent sex scenes/nudity will clip its wings a bit once it expands wide on the 22nd, but its heavy awards-profile and starpower should still allow to clear $10 mil at the box office regardless.
Price: $5 ULT/$3 BO
Predictions: $600k-$950k OW/9-15 PTA/0-2 Top 5/low to mid 8 IMDB/ $10-30 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Everybody has in it ULT and a few of us have it in BO, so the answer seems to be pretty clear!


The End We Start From (Republic) is by far the biggest question mark of the week. The British dystopian drama boasts a strong ensemble cast led by Jodie Comer, Benedict Cumberbatch and Katherine Waterson and got pretty good reviews at Toronto and London earlier this fall. However, there two big things that could kill its potential. 1: With zero award prospects to speak of, it's possible that it's releasing at the wrong time of year. 2. It's the first purely theatrical release from the relaunched Republic Pictures, so it's not clear how much effort Paramount is putting into getting the word out on these titles. The good news is that it's only opening in NYC and LA this weekend and costs $2 in ULT, which gives it some appeal if you've got the available cash and the stomach to live life on the wild side.
Price: $2 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $35-$85k OW/1-5 PTA/0 Top 5/high 6 to low 7 IMDB/ $75-$400k total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: It'll likely pick up some PTA points and go down as a perfectly fine ULT pick, but there have been better options at this price point scattered throughout the season, so you probably don't have the space for it on your slate


The first of the pair of upcoming projects for Wim Wenders to hit the big screen in the coming months, Anslem (Janus/Sideshow) is a documentary on the life and work of German sculptor and painter Anslem Kiefler shot entirely in 3D. While it won't challenge Poor Things for the PTA crown, Wenders' presence behind the camera and its expected place in the Best Documentary Feature mix should allow it to put together a decent limited run.
Price: $2 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $8-35k OW/1-5 PTA/0 Top 5/low to mid 7 IMDB/ $20-65k total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: It's absolutely worth a look if you're in the market for a $2 ULT pick.


Weekend Predictions:
1.The Boy and the Heron $13 mil
2.The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes $9 mil
3.Renaissance $8 mil
4.Godzilla Minus One $6 mil
5.Trolls Band Together $5 mil

-Eileen $825k

PTA: Poor Things, The Boy and the Heron, Anslem, The End We Start From, Renaissance

Tune in next week when six previews the new era of Willy Wonka and a pair of 2023's biggest awards hopefuls.

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I don't think The End We Start From is reporting. Paramount has done absolutely no marketing for it and it seems more like it was picked up more for streaming than anything. It probably ends up playing for only a week before the Christmas titles arrive.

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The Boy and The Heron did $2.4 mil in previews

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Cinemascore:

The Boy and the Heron: A-

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Weekend Estimates:
The Boy and the Heron $12.8 mil
The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes $9.4 mil
Godzilla Minus One $8.3 mil
Trolls Band Together $6.2 mil
Wish $5.3 mil
Renaissance $5 mil
Napoleon $4.2 mil
Waitress: The Musical $3.2 mil
Animal $2.3 mil
The Shift $2.2 mil

PTA:
Poor Things $71.6k
Anslem $21.6k
The Boy and the Heron $5.8k
Godzilla Minus One $3.3k
The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes $2.6k

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Weekend Actuals:
1.The Boy and the Heron $13 mil
2.The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes $9.3 mil
3.Godzilla Minus One $8.6 mil
4.Trolls Band Together $6.1 mil
5.Renaissance $5.5 mil
6.Wish $5.3 mil
7.Napoleon $4.1 mil
8.Waitress: The Musical $3.2 mil
9.Animal $2.5 mil
10.The Shift $2.1 mil

-Poor Things $661,230
-Eileen $596,280
-Anselm $42,572

PTA:
1.Poor Things $73,470 (9 theaters)
2.Anselm $21,286 (2 theaters)
3.The Boy and the Heron $5,883
4.Godzilla Minus One $3,382
5.The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes $2,537

-Eileen $1,121 (532 theaters)

The End We Start From did indeed not report.