Screening The Releases - December 1st

[Screen203]

Last Week

While this Thanksgiving was a bit better than the past two years, it definitely was not anything to write home about. As happened often about 10 years ago, the box office was led by a Hunger Games film, as the prequel film held very well after an OW a bit below expectations. It dropped just 35 percent to gross 29 m over the 3-day (and 42 m over the 5-day), for a total just under 100 m so far. In spite of mixed reviews, WOM seems pretty strong, so it should continue to hold relatively well in the weeks to come. In a surprise second was Napoleon, which grossed about 21 m over the 3 day (and about 33 m over the 5-day). While not a good number for a nearly 200 m-budgeted film on its own, in comparison to expectations it is a win. That being said, WOM seems quite negative (the audience I saw it with didn't seem thrilled by it, though I thought it was interesting if pretty flawed), so I don't expect legs to be great. No excuse, however, can be made for Wish. While the numbers it made were pretty similar to Napoleon's (almost 20 m over the 3-day, and almost 32 m over the 5-day), the expectations for it were so much higher, especially as the film meant to revive Disney Animation theatrically. WOM isn't good for this one either, so don't expect much in terms of legs. In fourth is another animated musical, Trolls: Band Together. While it isn't setting the world on fire either, it is doing better by comparison. It grossed almost 18 m over the 3-day (and about 25 m over the 5-day), for a total so far of almost 65 m. In fifth was Thanksgiving. It grossed 7 m over the 3-day (and 11 m over the 5-day), for a total of 24 m so far. In ninth, Saltburn expanded wide, grossing about 2 m over the 3-day (and about 3 m over the 5-day).

The top PTA of the weekend went to Monster. It grossed about 13 k per theater in two locations. In second was the number one film at the box office, The Hunger Games. It grossed about 8 k over the 3-day. In third was Napoleon, which grossed about 6 k over the 3-day. In fourth was Fallen Leaves, which grossed 5 k over the 3-day. In fifth, Dream Scenario grossed about the same per theater, which doesn't seem like a great sign for its wide expansion this week.

This Week

Reanissance: A Film By Beyonce



This doesn't seem like it will be a huge breakout. Considering it seems to be for die-hard Beyonce fans only, I guess that isn't that big of a surprise. That being said, for a concert film it should do above-average numbers.

I expect an OW of 15 m, and a total of 35 m.

It will get you 4-6 Top 5 points, 3 PTA points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Godzilla: Minus One



This is likely to be the best-performing film of the weekend, at least in comparison to expectations. Reviews have been extremely strong, and the positive reception of the TV show Monarch: Legacy Of Monsters can't hurt, even though the two aren't directly related in terms of continuity. My concern is that the first-time US distributor Toho might have not put as much marketing effort into it as they could have, and it will likely be very front-loaded.

I expect an OW of 6 m, and a total of 14 m.

It should get you 2 Top 5 points, 2 PTA points, and a score of 8 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Silent Night



This is unlikely to repeat the success of last year's similarly-themed Violent Night, despite being the return of John Woo after a long hiatus. The relative lack of dialogue, while an interesting hook, might repel as much as it attracts, and like many of Lionsgate's smaller action films, there has been little in the way of marketing. Strong reviews may help, but probably won't be enough to turn the tide in its favor.

I expect an OW of 5 m, and a total of 12 m.

It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

The Shift



According to the film's producers, this is supposed to be a re-telling of the Book Of Job. While I haven't seen any marketing material, I'm not sure that comes across in what has been released as promotion. That being said, I think the sci-fi elements will turn away many religious people, and the religious elements will turn away those that aren't religious.

I expect an OW of 3 m, and a total of 6 m.

It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a score of 8 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Eileen



Buzz around this feels low, despite its star power. Personally, I'm looking forward to seeing it next week, but Neon hasn't really gotten the word out that it will be released next week. It should do okay in limited release, however.

I expect an OW PTA of 25 k, and a total of 2 m.

It will get you 5 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 6 on IMDb.

While it's the best choice IMO out of the options provided, I still wouldn't recommend taking it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Top 5 -

The Hunger Games: The Ballad Of Songbirds And Snakes - 16 m
Renassiance: A Film By Beyonce - 15 m
Napoleon - 7 m
Godzilla: Minus One - 6 m
Wish - 6 m

PTA

Eileen - 25 k
Monster - 10 k
Renassiance: A Film By Beyonce - 3 k
Godzilla: Minus One - 3 k
Fallen Leaves - 3 k

Next Week

Join transformers for a look over the wide release of The Boy And The Heron, as well as the limited release of Poor Things.

[Buscemi2]

I saw Silent Night tonight and I'm expecting pretty poor word-of-mouth. The audience reaction was pretty much dead throughout.

[transformers2]

I think Godzilla can hit $10+ mil. It's opening in about 2,300 theaters, WOM is excellent and there are plenty of kaiju fans out there that won't be deterred by the subtitles.

[Buscemi2]

Speaking of Japanese imports, The Boy and the Heron is pre-selling extremely well in my area. But I'm not sure if that's because of it's Miyazaki or the manager being an idiot and only scheduling two shows a night in a small auditorium because he hates anime and anything with subtitles. I'm still trying to figure out why he only scheduled the Demon Slayer sequel for one show a night even though every show sold out and it was shown all day everywhere else.

[numbersix]

With Godzilla's previews, it could evern hit 15m this weekend, and potentially beat Beyonce.

[transformers2]

Preview Totals:
Renaissance $5 mil
Godzilla $2.1 mil (Wednesday and Thursday combined)
Silent Night $250k

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascores:

Renaissance: A+
Godzilla Minus One: A
The Shift: B+
Silent Night: C

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Renaissance $21 mil
The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes $14.5 mil
Godzilla Minus One $11 mil
Trolls Band Together $7.6 mil
Wish $7.4 mil
Napoleon $7.1 mil
Animal $6.1 mil
The Shift $4.4 mil
Silent Night $3 mil
Thanksgiving $2.6 mil

-Eileen $91k

PTA:
Eileen $15.1k
Renaissance $8.3k
Godzilla Minus One $4.8k
The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes $3.9k
Trolls Band Together $2.1k

[Buscemi2]

Eileen expands wide, or at least semi-wide, on Friday, so this will likely be the only week it gets PTA points.

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.Reanssiance $21.8 mil
2.The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes $14.2 mil
3.Godzilla Minus One $11.4 mil
4.Trolls Band Together $7.8 mil
5.Wish $7.7 mil
6.Napoleon $7.3 mil
7.Animal $6.5 mil
8.The Shift $4.3 mil
9.Silent Night $3 mil
10.Thanksgiving $2.6 mil

-Eileen $93,290

PTA:
1.Eileen $15,548 (6 theaters)
2.Renassiance $8,587
3.Godzilla Minus One $4,948
4.The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes $4,025
5.Fallen Leaves $2,569 (36 theaters)

-The Shift $1,755
-Silent Night $1,610