Tranny Tackles The Cinema: The Films of 11/22

[transformers2]

In the Great Battle of Sequels Released on November 17, 2023, the return to Panem won.

Hunger Games prequel The Ballad of the Songbirds and Snakes edged out the Trolls threequel Band Together by a margin of just over $14.5 mil ($44.6 to $30 mil) for the top spot at the box office. Much will be made of the fact that both of these films failed to match the peaks of their respective franchises, but the reality is that they're both completely respectable starts for productions that boasted budgets around $100 mil-especially for TBOTSAS which is effectively starting from scratch with zero returning actors from the intial hit film series. The real measure of their success or failure will come into focus over the coming days when we see how they hold up against a trio of newcomers in a deceptively busy holiday marketplace.

As for the weekend's two smaller wide releases, it was a tale of two radically different outcomes. On the respectable end was Eli Roth's long-gestating feature adaptation of his fake Grindhouse trailer Thanksgiving-which gobbled up $10.3 mil and earned some solid WOM from the sickos that ventured out to see it. On the sadder side of the BO specturm came Taika Waititi's Next Goal Wins-which completely missed the mark with a dismal $2.5 mil opening.

Next Goal Wins wasn't the only loser for Disney at the box office this past weekend. The Marvels made more stunning superhero movie history with its $10.1 mil sophomore frame-which is not only the lowest second weekend ever for an MCU film but the single worst drop for any superhero film since the 1997 Shaq vehicle Steel. Deadpool 3 can not arrive soon enough for a suddenly embattled MCU that is in desperate need of some juice following a 2023 slate that has been absolutely nightmarish for them outside of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 and Season 2 of Loki.

A strong fall on the arthouse circuit continued this week with a pair of dazzling debuts from Saltburn and Fallen Leaves. Emerald Fennell's sophomore feature picked up just under $47k per theater from 7 NYC/LA runs-which is actually a whole $12k better than The Holdovers did in its OW three weeks ago in1 less theater while Fallen Leaves earned MUBI their best PTA debut of 2023 with $24.4k. The prosperous limited release party will be over rather quickly for Saltburn as it will be expanding wide today (more on that shortly), which could be great news for Finland's Best International Feature submission's arthouse market share as it embarks on what appears to be a traditional slow fall rollout.

Wide Releases:
The Thanksgiving corridor has long been a hit parade for Disney's animated films. Over the past 25 years alone, they've launched sensations like Toy Story 2, Frozen and Moana on the day before Turkey Day. However, the previous 2 films that have been released in this coveted slot (Encanto and Strange World) have failed to reach hit status-particularly the latter which was the single biggest bomb of 2022 (in terms of estimated money lost for the studio at least). Wish (Disney) will hope to put an abrupt halt to this mini-run of BO misfortune before it spirals into something bigger.

Billed as the culmination of their 100th anniversary celebration, Wish is very much a bread-and-butter Mousehouse animation project as its a female-aimed musical with an optimistic message about pursuing your dreams featuring a protagonist who could prove to be the studio's next iconic character and a string of songs that the studio hopes will have so much replay value for the little ones out there that parents around the globe will never want to hear them again about 72-96 hours after they've seen the movie. Basically if anything can snap Disney's recent late animated cold streak, it's a project that has been delibrately molded to feature as many of the studio's hallmarks as possible.

Tracking has been kind of all over the place for this, which is to be expected since major animated movies don't generate much in the way of advanced pre-sales compared to other tentpoles and its an original film. And honestly, I don't think that matters at all in the long run. Even if it doesn't post great numbers over its intial 5-day opening, it could easily rip off a high multiplier over the coming weeks a la Elemental as it has no animated competition until Migration in the pre-Christmas frame or family competition until Wonka a week earlier. In terms of how it'll stack up with other recent releases to hold this slot, I'd expect to fall far short of the crazy heights that Frozen 2 and Moana hit but easily clear Encanto and Strange World and possibly challenge Coco's $210.4 mil run if all goes well in the WOM department. And if it somehow fails? Well then I guess Disney truly is in deep shit with no light on the horizon.

Price: $22 ULT/$25 BO
Predictions: $25-45 mil OW ($33-65 mil 5-day)/7-13 PTA/10-22 Top 5/high 6 to low 7 IMDB/ $75-200 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Enitirely depends on how much belief you have in the good ol' Disney magic at the moment.


Ridley Scott is back to doing two of his favorite things in the world with Napoleon (Sony/Apple): Making historical epics and giving a loud, proud middle finger to both historical accuarcy and the accents of the nation in which the film takes place. Joaquin Phoenix plays the titular ruthless French general/emperor and Vannesa Kirby plays his mistress/eventual wife/future ex-wife Joesphine with whom Napoleon shared a famously volatile relationship. Presumably, large-scale battles, power struggles within both the governement and Napoleon's own marriage and a whole lot of general cattiness will ensue.

To Apple and Sony's credit, they've pushed the shit out of this over the past couple of months and that traditional marketing paired with the reliably colorful pullquotes from Scott's press tour and its status as the rare “dad movie” aimed at history buffs has its audicience awareness levels in a good spot heading into its opening tonight. Could it ultimately get hurt by a relatively polarized reception like its received among actual critics? Of course, but I still believe it's well-positioned to get off to a good start and hang around for at least the next few weeks regardless.

Price: $13 ULT/$13 BO
Predictions: $15-30 mil OW ($20-40 mil 5-day)/2-6 PTA/6-12 Top 5/high 6 to low 7 IMDB/ $50-125 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Given its modest price and solid upside, it's worthy of consideration in both formats.



Rounding out the holiday calendar is the wide expansion of Saltburn. Quite frankly, I have no fucking idea how this will play with the masses. While the buzz surrounding its healthy dose of saliacious content and wild plot twists will undoubtely bring out some curious and/or horned-up folks to the cinema its hard to quantify the size of that group given that nearly all of its marketing has been via social media advertising, WOM from festivals/early screenings and Jacob Elordi fancams. With all that being said, it's the kind of movie that will certainly generate all sorts of strong reactions across the board and that could lead it to overperform if the hype/disgust train really picks up steam.

Weekend Predictions:
1.Wish $39 mil ($51 mil 5-day)
2.Napoleon $22 mil ($30 mil 5-day)
3.The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes $17 mil ($21 mil 5-day)
4.Trolls Band Together $15 mil ($18 mil 5-day)
5.Saltburn $6 mil ($9 mil 5-day)

PTA: Wish, Napoleon, Fallen Leaves, Dream Scenario, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

Tune in next week when Screen breaks down a slate that includes AMC's next hope at delivering a concert film sensation, an action movie legend's return to American shores, a kaiju legend returning to their own shores and a psychological thriller about the awful shit Anne Hathaway's intoxicating beauty is capable of making people do.

[Buscemi2]

I could see Wish not even clearing $30 million for the weekend. It feels like there's been no positive buzz (and unlike other animation studios, Disney is very dependent on good reviews and strong word of mouth) and it looks very cheaply made. Trolls should hold extremely well, meanwhile.

As for Saltburn, I'd expect a similar result to Bones & All. It's going to play well in big cities because it is a big city movie. Audiences in a smaller market aren't interested in the lives of bored rich people in the UK unless it's set in Victorian times or it's like Downton Abbey.

Edit: I forgot to mention that Netflix's new animated title, Leo, is getting far better reviews than Wish. Disney should be embarrassed that a Happy Madison production is getting more praise than their big anniversary movie.

[numbersix]

I'm not convinced by Wish either, and definitly think it'll perform on the lower end of the predictions. 40m 5 day and just over 100m. Disney really are struggling for fresh ideas that will bring in an audience.

Napoleon will be interesting. Those reviews don't help, despite the historical figure probably being able to draw in an older audience on name alone.

[Buscemi2]

Napoleon should do fine. It's the kind of movie hardcore Ridley Scott fans love and the few theatres getting it in 70mm will have some very solid per-theatre averages.

[transformers2]

Preview totals:
Napoleon $3 mil
Wish $2.3 mil (includes Saturday previews)

[transformers2]

Preview totals:
Napoleon $3 mil
Wish $2.3 mil (includes Saturday's Early Access Screenings)

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascores:

Wish: A-
Napoleon: B-
Saltburn: B-

[StarLord123]

I'll be damned, Wish is looking like yet another financial nightmare for Disney, it's in a very close race with Napoleon for 2nd place, while Hunger Games is looking to take 1st again (seemingly the B+ cinemascore was an outlier and fans are really liking it). I thought Wish was okay, but Trolls is likely to appeal more to the pre-school audience. Napoleon probably could've been huge if it had better critical and audience reception.

[Buscemi2]

I knew Wish was going to flop after the trailer came out but I don't think Disney's losing much sleep over it. They make so much money on other things that the naysayers would be shocked at how they'll still do fine and be forced to admit they are wrong (even though self-awareness and humility are two things that do not exist in the minds of these idiots). Warner Bros. is in far worse shape but said figures will never admit the issues there because they got the Snydercut released.

As for Napoleon, I don't think this was ever supposed to be a big blockbuster. Even though it's the stereotypical Ridley Scott historical epic (graphic violence, long run time, made for the toxic male crowd), it was never going to hit Gladiator/The Martian numbers.

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes $28.2 mil
Napoleon $20.4 mil
Wish $19.5 mil
Trolls Band Together $17.5 mil
Thanksgiving $7.2 mil
The Marvels $6.4 mil
The Holdovers $2.7 mil
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour $2.3 mil
Five Nights at Freddy's $1.8 mil
Saltburn/Next Goal Wins $1.7 mil

PTA:
The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes $7.6k
Napoleon $5.8k
Fallen Leaves $5.3k
Dream Scenario $5.2k
Wish $5k

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes $29 mil
2.Napoleon $20.6 mil
3.Wish $19.7 mil
4.Trolls Band Together $17.8 mil
5.Thanksgiving $7.1 mil
6.The Marvels $6.3 mil
7.The Holdovers $2.8 mil
8.Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour $2.3 mil
9.Saltburn $1.9 mil
10.Five Nights at Freddy's $1.7 mil

PTA:
1.The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes $7,691
2.Napoleon $5,897
3.Fallen Leaves $5,176 (8 theaters)
4.Dream Scenario $5,157 (124 theaters)
5.Wish $5,051

-Saltburn $1,188

What an excellent hold for The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes. $150 mil+ could be in play if it can continue to hold well before the onslaught of holiday titles start showing up in a few weeks.

[Buscemi2]

But keep in mind titles usually drop hard the week after Thanksgiving. For example, Napoleon could shed 70% in its second weekend, as word-of-mouth hasn't been very good. Many who haven't seen it yet could wait for the promised director's cut next year as some issues audiences have had with the film have to do with the editing.