Screening The Releases - November 17th

[Screen203]

Last Week

It was bound to happen eventually. The Marvels grossed just 46 m over the weekend, which is the lowest opening in the MCU (below 2008's The Incredible Hulk, as well as underperformers like Eternals and Ant-Man And The Wasp: Quantamania). It was also pretty frontloaded, and even reaching 100 m may be a challenge. Besides The Marvels crashing and burning, there wasn't much else going on. Second went to Five Nights At Freddy's, which recovered a bit from its plunge last weekend, dropping 53 percent to gross nearly 9 m, for a total so far of 127 m. In third was the extended Eras Tour, which dropped 55 percent to gross 6 m, for a total so far of almost 173 m. In fourth, Priscilla continued to perform quite strongly in comparison to expectations, dropping just 5 percent (though it added 1,000 theaters, many of which seem to be dropping it this week) to gross almost 5 m, for a total so far almost 13 m. I have to imagine A24 and Sofia Coppola are rather happy with the way this has performed, and it should do well worldwide as well. In fifth, Killers Of The Flower Moon had another light drop, falling just 33 percent to gross about 4.5 m, for a total so far of just about 60 m. Just outside the Top 5 is The Holdovers, which did solid business in its wider expansion. It grossed 3 m for a total so far of about 4 m. Reviews are quite strong, so it should live up to its name in the weekends to come. In seventh was another opener that fared much worse. Journey To Bethlehem grossed about 2.5 m this weekend. In eighth, Tiger 3 grossed almost 2 m. With the exception of Radical, which grossed almost 2 m this weekend for a total of 5 m so far, every other release that opened last week dropped out of the Top 10.

The highest PTA of the week, as often happens, went to an A24 film. Dream Scenario, despite an (IMO) small amount of buzz, opened well, grossing 215 k in 6 theaters for a PTA of almost 36 k. I would say this is a solid opening, though I'm not sure it has much in the way of wide appeal. In second, despite its poor performance, is The Marvels, which grossed about 11 k per theater. In third is Orlando, My Political Biography, which grossed 7.5 k in one theater. In fourth was The Holdovers, which grossed about 4 k per theater. In fifth was Radical, which grossed about 3 k per theater.

This Week

The Hunger Games: The Ballad Of Songbirds And Snakes



Given how biased I am towards the series, it's going to be hard for me to give an accurate prediction here. That being said, it's not going to come close to the originals, though that was to be expected. I do feel like Lionsgate has done a good job marketing it, however. Trailers and other marketing material have received a fair amount of buzz, though reviews are rather mixed. With how poor The Marvels is performing, however, there is probably somewhat of an opening for a big blockbuster. I do think that the mixed reception to the movie itself, as well as being a prequel to a series that ended pretty definitively (and said finale was divisive itself), will hold it back, though.

I expect an OW of 45 m, and a total of 130 m.

It will get you 4-5 PTA points, 10-17 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

There are worse choices in Box Office and Ultimate, but there are better ones as well. Think before you take it.

Trolls: Band Together



I don't think this will do that well. One of the biggest reasons is that Wish is releasing just a few days later, and that seems to have much more potential. The music hasn't made any impact whatsoever, and I just don't think there is any audience interest in this one.

I expect an OW of 25 m, and a total of 80 m.

It will get you 3 PTA points, 6-10 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Thanksgiving



This looks like it may not do that bad, actually. While it is very niche, there is probably some curiosity over a horror film being released on Thanksgiving, and reviews have been surprisingly strong. That being said, Eli Roth is a rather polemic director (I'm not a fan, myself), so his notoriety may push away as many people as it attracts. It will likely be very frontloaded, due to the Thanksgiving theme.

I expect an OW of 12 m, and a total of 25 m.

It should get you 1 PTA points, 3-4 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

I wouldn't advocate for choosing it in Box Office or Ultimate, but there are worse choices to be made.

Next Goal Wins



After many delays, this is finally coming out, and it doesn't seem like many will notice. Taika Watiti's reputation has seemingly taken a nosedive following the mixed-negative at best reception to Thor: Love And Thunder, and reviews for this are borderline scathing. There hasn't been much in the way of marketing for it, either, and sports comedies can be a tough sell.

I expect an OW of 3 m, and a total of 10 m.

It will get you 0 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 6 on IMDb.

Don't take this in Box Office or Ultimate.

Saltburn



This should have a huge limited opening, though long-term prospects are iffy. Reviews for this have been a bit mixed, but most find some things to praise about it. I don't know whether some of the film's rumored controversial material will help it or hinder it, but on a limited level I don't think it will hurt it too much. In some ways, it reminds me a bit of Beau Is Afraid from earlier this year (very love-it-or-hate-it with fierce defenders on both sides, provocative subject matter, and a director with a solid following), though this seems more mainstream than that, at least on the surface.

I expect an OW PTA of 60 k, and a total of 10 m.

It will get you 5-6 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office, though it may be worth a look it Ultimate.

Fallen Leaves



This was quite acclaimed at Cannes. That being said, MUBI isn't super well-known for making theatrical successes (the only film of theirs to cross 1 m in the US is Decision To Leave), and there isn't a ton of buzz surrounding this right now.

I expect an OW PTA of 6 k, and a total under 1 m

It will get you 2-3 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Next Week

Join transformers for a look at Wish and Napoleon.

[Buscemi2]

I think Trolls ends up doing better than Wish. The animation in Wish looks terrible and it feels like I've seen far more marketing for Trolls. But ultimately, I expect both to lose out to Migration, which could be the hit of Christmas mainly on the grounds that it's Illumination and everything else looks destined to flop or underperform.

[Screen203]

I'm not sure Wish will do that well either, but it should cross 100 m at least, which seems a bridge too far for Trolls to reach.

As for the Christmas releases, I think Wonka should do pretty well, in spite of the mixed reactions the trailers have received. I think it can gross similarly to The Greatest Showman or Mary Poppins Returns, which may be enough to win in comparison to the rather weak holiday releases.

[Buscemi2]

Wonka looks like a bomb. Who exactly asked for this movie? Also, it reminds me way too much of Dolittle from a few years back in terms of style and the whole "trying to erase memories of a well-liked portrayal of a literary character and replace them with an obvious cash grab".

And Encanto and Strange World proved $100 million is no guarantee for a Disney animated feature. Wish looks as if an unfinished movie is being released and I can't see any praise saving this one. Also, I can't see who exactly is the audience for this. Kids at least liked the first two Trolls movies.

[transformers2]

If Saltburn does sputter upon expansion next week, I don't want to hear a single person online complain about how they don't make campy movies anymore. Emerald Fennell has delivered what I believe to be the most beautifully twisted, hilarious piece of psychosexual trash cinema since Wild Things and the sickos of the world need to reward her, the entire acting ensemble and Linus Sandgren's impeccable visual eye for their incredible dedication to the dumpster entertainment arts by making it a hit.

[transformers2]

Preview totals:
The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes $5.75 mil
Trolls Band Together $1.3 mil (previous sneaks not included)
Thanksgiving $1 mil

[StarLord123]

Oof. It seems like every big budget film this month is getting middling reviews. First The Marvels, then Hunger Games, then Napoleon, now Wish is getting a kicking.

[Buscemi2]

It looks like Wish is a pass based on early reviews. Good news for DreamWorks?

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascore:

Trolls Band Together: A (equal to the first film)
The Hunger Games: B+ (worst for the franchise)
Next Goal Wins: B+ (same as the director's Love and Thunder)
Thanksgiving: B (one of Eli Roth's better Cinemascores, behind his two previous narrative films, both of which got B+'s)

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes $44 mil
Trolls Band Together $30.6 mil
The Marvels/Thanksgiving $10.2 mil
Five Nights at Freddy's $3.5 mil
The Holdovers $2.7 mil
Next Goal Wins $2.5 mil
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour $2.4 mil
Priscilla $2.3 mil
Killers of the Flower Moon $1.9 mil

-Saltburn $315.5k
-Fallen Leaves $50.7 k

PTA:
Saltburn $45.1k
Fallen Leaves $25.3k
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes $11.7k
Dream Scenario $11k
Trolls Band Together $7.9k

[StarLord123]

I wouldn't be shocked if Thanksgiving beats The Marvels for 3rd place in actuals. It's estimated to have a 77.9% drop, which is not only the worst 2nd weekend drop for the MCU (coming off their worst opening), but effectively tied with STEEL (1997) as the worst drop for a superhero film ever, plus an identical 2nd weekend take to Morbius ($10.2M)! What the fuck??? I don't think the movie was perfect as a whole, but it does hurt to see it collapse so badly. It's still far better than Love & Thunder and Quantumania to me (even if that's mostly due to Iman).

Speaking of Thor 4, Taika Waititi is probably better off sticking to low budget pet projects after that abomination. It's clear that the key to the success of Ragnarok was that he was kept on a leash.

[Buscemi2]

I'm beginning to wonder if The Marvels officially killed female-led superhero movies again. It feels as if in the past few years, either studios have gotten the wrong idea of why movies like The Hunger Games, Frozen, Wonder Woman, Crazy Rich Asians, Captain Marvel, and Barbie took off and made films that did more to alienate audiences and/or did something else to appease vocal minorities or decided to listen said vocal minorities on the Internet and either dumped films not aimed towards that Internet crowd or took the complaints on the Internet to heart.

This forthcoming March feels like proof of the last point. The only major films opening are movies people on the Internet wanted, released by studios who pander to loud people on the Internet who only want echo chamber-type movies.

As for Waititi, his best movies were his Kiwi productions. In the States, he's just another hack who got lucky with one movie. And Next Goal Wins should have never been a wide release. Between it spending years on the shelf and a premise that was never going to appeal to American audiences, it should have been sent to Hulu.

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes $44.6 mil
2.Trolls Band Together $30 mil
3.Thanksgiving $10.3 mil
4.The Marvels $10.1 mil
5.Five Nights at Freddy's $3.6 mil
6.Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour $2.8 mil
7.The Holdovers $2.7 mil
8.Next Goal Wins $2.5 mil
9.Priscilla $2.3 mil
10.Killers of the Flower Moon $2 mil

-Saltburn $322,651
-Fallen Leaves $48,803

PTA:
1.Saltburn $46,093 (7 theaters)
2.Fallen Leaves $24,401 (2 theaters)
3.The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes $11,813
4.Dream Scenario $11,020 (25 theaters)
5.Trolls Band Together $7,752

-Thanksgiving $3,216
-Next Goal Wins $1,116

Also, just a heads-up, I'll (finally) be posting a standings update on Wednesday.

[Buscemi2]

It's kind of embarrassing how after all the pre-release hype, The Eras Tour will gross less than Sound of Freedom. They should have made this available on weekdays as it would have hit $200 million easily.

[numbersix]

I doubt anyone is going to be embarrassed. Yes, the analysts predicted higher and went overboard, but it's still the highest grossing concert film by a huge margin, and has brought in massive profits for all involved. Comparing it to another huge and unpredictable success shouldn't diminish its achievement.