SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/10

[numbersix]

And…. We’re back.

With last week being left to the leftovers of Halloween season, and blockbusters bolting to next year when the actors’ strike will be over (spoiler alert: it’s looking like it’ll end this week), it’s time to inject a little excitement back into the box office. Sadly, little is about the most you’ll get, as you’ll see below.

Two new films open wide this weekend, though worth pointing out Alex Payne’s The Holdovers has, well, held over well and should open wide this weekend. Anyone who heeded my unreliable advice a few weeks ago and picked it up, should be happy with the Ultimate winner.




I am more excited about The Marvels (Disney) than anyone else. Not because I’ve any interest in the stretched out, spaghettified MCU, but rather because this is another nail in the coffin of the franchise which has long outstayed its welcome. The Marvels is of course the sequel to Captain Marvel, the hit introduction to the overpowered titular character. After a few appearances, including the Avengers films, the captain pairs up with Monica Rambeau (Teyonah Parris) of Wandavision and Kamala Khan (Iman Vellani of Ms Marvel) to battle whatever alien sub-boss Disney have concocted until they figure out what to do about Jonathan Majors’s real-life villainy. A couple of years ago, this would be a sure-fire hit. But audiences are cooling off the MCU, with the TV series have more success than the movies. Sure, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 was a hit, but Ant-Man 3 bombed, and alongside Eternals and Shang-Chi, it seems fans are dwindling if Spider-man is absent.

A few months ago, even a conservative estimate would have seen this sequel show diminishing returns and earn half of the first film’s $426m domestic intake. However, tracking has been getting increasingly gloomy. There’s not much buzz about this film, and the cast can’t even get out there and drum up a lightning storm. 2021’s Eternals is a good comparison, which opened to $71m and finished with $164m. I expect The Marvels, which is the shortest Marvel movie to date, to earn less up front but hold a little better, let’s say around $50m and hit maybe $150m tops. In Ultimate that would get a mid 6s IMDB score, 4-5 PTA points, and 12 or so T5 points. Unfortunately, the film was priced like a backbone of your slate, so for $39 in Ultimate and $45 in BO, you will get better value by picking up two mid-range films, like Wish or Migration. Avoid.




There’s not much mileage in Journey to Bethlehem (Sony), a musical centred on the Biblical story of the Nativity, starring Antonio Banderas as King Herod. Of course, Angel Studios impressed by rallying its Christian audience to make Sound of Freedom a hit. This feels a little less grass-rootsy, and more a cheap cash-in. It’s also a tad early for Santa Season. It’s unlikely this film will open above the $10m mark, or earn beyond $30m, and given its $9 tag you’re better off putting your faith in Willy Wonka.




Dream Scenario (A24) is another way to confuse us all about Nicholas Cage. Just when we all wrote him off as an OTT cartoon of an actor, he turns up in films like Pig and actually acts well. And here we are again, with another indie darling. Kristoffer Borgli‘s latest is a Kaufmann-like story about a uni professor who seems to seems to pop up in everyone’s dreams. This quirky pic has been getting great reviews when it premiered in TIFF, and it’s the exact kind of film A24 can push to success. It’s out in around 5 theatres this weekend, so it should take the PTA crown, with maybe 1-2 next week as it expands, and could earn $5-10m by the end of its run. It may not be the best limited film for your slate this season, but it will deliver.




Finally, Orlando: My Political Biography (Slideshow) is the kind of high-brow arthouse film that could fare well on a quiet weekend, but at best you’re going to get 3 PTA points, and probably a low IMDB score considering now bro-tastic that site has become. This experimental doc, based on various trans people embracing Virginia Woolf’s iconic novel, probably isn’t worth the risk.


Predictions for the weekend

1. Marvel-less - $50m
2. [Not sure if the Taylor Swift show is going beyond its 4-week run. If it is, it should make 8.5m for 2nd place]
2. 5 Sequels for Freddy- $8m
3. Prancing to Bethlehem - $7m
4. How to Hold Over - $5m
5. Cracker Killers of the Flower Moon - $4m

PTA: Dream Scenario, The Marvels, Orlando, Radical, Journey to Bethlehem


And next week the competition heats up with three wide releases: A Hunger Games prequel, a Trolls sequel, and a Thanksgiving-themed horror, as well as potential arthouse hits Saltburn, Next Goal Wins, and Fallen Leaves. Screen will give you the low-down.

[Buscemi2]

The Eras Tour is getting another weekend.

And it's funny how you mentioned a lack of buzz for The Marvels because I don't think there's been anything for Journey to Bethlehem. And with After Death flopping, it's pretty much been established for the moment Evangelical movies are dead again. I wouldn't expect even $5 million from it.

[Buscemi2]

Early reviews for The Marvels are very underwhelming (51 on Metacritic). And the final run time of 105 minutes suggests a lot of post-production tinkering occurred, as it's the shortest MCU entry (not counting the Sinister Six movies) since the Inhumans movie Marvel likes to pretend never happened.

Even if it dips below $50 million opening weekend, I don't think this is the end for Marvel Studios. I really can't see Disney letting the trolls who think The Flash was a hit and want every movie to be some Mad Men-esque fantasy win.

[transformers2]

The Marvels did $6.6 mil in previews yesterday. The fact that this is going to end up having a lower OW than Eternals is stunning.

[Buscemi2]

Disney didn't even push the movie. Yes, the SAG strike had a lot to do with this but I'm sure they could have found something other than "please excuse my student from school as Loki begins on Thursday and The Marvels opens on Friday" note that was circulating a few days ago to push this one.

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascores:

Journey to Bethlehem: A-
The Marvels: B

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
The Marvels $47 mil
Five Nights at Freddy's $9 mil
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour $5.9 mil
Priscilla $4.8 mil
Killers of the Flower Moon $4.7 mil
The Holdovers $3.2 mil
Journey to Bethlehem $2.4 mil
Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie/Radical $1.8 mil
The Exorcist: Believer $1.2 mil

-Dream Scenario $216k
-Orlando, My Political Biography $7.5k

PTA:
Dream Scenario $35.9k
The Marvels $11.7k
Orlando, My Political Biography $7.5k
The Holdovers $4.1k
Radical $3.3k

[StarLord123]

Ouch.

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.The Marvels $46.1 mil
2.Five Nights at Freddy's $9 mil
3.Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour $6.1 mil
4.Priscilla $4.8 mil
5.Killers of the Flower Moon $4.6 mil
6.The Holdovers $3.2 mil
7.Journey to Bethlehem $2.4 mil
8.Tiger 3 $1.9 mil
9.Radical $1.72 mil
10.Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie $1.7 mil

-Dream Scenario $215,552
-Orlando, My Political Biography $7,500

PTA:
1.Dream Scenario $35,925 (6 theaters)
2.The Marvels $11,442
3.Orlando, My Political Biography $7,500
4.The Holdovers $4,140
5.Radical $3,229 (534 theaters)

-Journey to Bethlehem $1,199

The Marvels picking up the lowest-ever opening for the MCU was expected coming into the weekend, but finishing at a number that is only $7 mil ahead of Morbius' OW is brutal and shocking.

[Buscemi2]

I have to wonder what was going on during the production of The Marvels. Between Marvel's reluctance to push the film, the final run time being well under two hours, and the eventual response, something suggests the making of the film was extremely chaotic or the film was taken away from the director in post and the end product was the result of too many cooks in the kitchen.

On a related note, I think this will be the last time Marvel tries to make a film like DC, in which they hire a horror director to keep costs low and end up micromanaging the production to make something that impresses few.

[StarLord123]

Sadly, it's been clear for quite some time that this wasn't going to perform well. It was pretty much a perfect storm of factors working against the movie, it feels like the studio and the trades were collectively bracing for it. Maybe it could hold decently over the coming weeks after such a low opening, but it's facing competition with Hunger Games snatching PLFs soon, and it seems like the word-of-mouth just isn't there. The general consensus though, even among many of the negative reviews is that Vellani was the bright spot of the film, so hopefully her future in the franchise isn't affected by this. Now, the only MCU movie (sort of) releasing next year is DP3, for folks clamoring that the MCU needs a break, there you go!

[Buscemi2]

Speaking of Marvel, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Madame Web got delayed. We haven't seen a thing for it and Sony is so dead set on using it to launch Sydney Sweeney as the future of the Sinister Six...even though she's not the star of the film. Kind of like all of the issues with the new Blade, where Blade isn't even going to be the main character due to all of the rewrites and multiple directors entering and then leaving the project.

Of course on the former, it might depend on how Anyone but You does but I can't see that performing any better than a late-era Nicholas Sparks adaptation.

[StarLord123]

The Madame Web trailer is releasing this week, apparently. Sony was probably waiting for the strike to end so its leads could promote from the get-go. Sony would be wise to move either it or Kraven to the vacated May 3rd slot, though. Otherwise it'll be the first non-pandemic Summer since 2006 to not open with an MCU or Marvel film. Every Summer that I can recall has opened with one.

As for Disney not delaying Marvels due to the strike, it was surely due to it already being delayed a number of times, and Disney not having a lot of faith in it. Much like WB with Aquaman 2, they clearly just wanted it done and over with.

[Buscemi2]

Kind of surprised Dakota Johnson would even want to promote Madame Web, given how Sony has largely pushed her aside on a film she's the lead in. Who wants to bet she's barely even in said trailer?

As for Kraven, I can't see much of an audience for a film where the protagonist is a sympathetic Russian. By then again, some people love to fetishize Putin's Russia.