SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/21

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Shrykespeare
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SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/21

Post by Shrykespeare »

59%. Well, that's two years in a row that the summer's leadoff hitter, the obligatory blockbuster from Marvel Studios, has made a larger-than-expected drop. Of course, last year, Wolverine took a mighty tumble largely because of bad reviews and the upstart success of Star Trek. This year, Iron Man 2 was able to retain that #1 spot despite a 59% drop, largely because its only competition was an adult-centered Robin Hood film that lacked both the youthful appeal and the volume of theaters showing it to overtake it.

It seems clear now that Iron Man 2 will likely not be: 1) a $300 million earner, and thus 2) the biggest earner of 2010 (Alice in Wonderland is now over $330 million), or 3) heck, even the biggest earner of the summer, unless for some reason, no summer film reaches that coveted mark... that would be quite an amazing turn of developments, even despite the current economic climate.

So what does this do to our predictions? Realistically, what films besides Iron Man 2 have the potential to reach $300 million? The latest Twilight film, Eclipse, is the first of the series to get a summer release, but will that be enough? I have to believe that though Christopher Nolan's name carries a ton of weight with moviegoers, Inception is so couched in mystery that it will have to work heavily to reach that level. And most everything else just doesn't have enough appeal or star power to make it. Which leaves... two animated films, from the top two animated studios in the world at the moment. The first, obviously, is Toy Story 3, a surefire hit that will extend Pixar's streak of critical-acclaimed successes to eleven. And the other one is DreamWorks' studios going to the well, milking their biggest success story for what is ostensibly the last time, with Shrek Forever After.

Last year, for the first time in I don't know how long, I actually liked DreamWorks' one outing (Monsters vs. Aliens) more than I liked Pixar's (Up). With March's How to Train Your Dragon, they gave me what might be my favorite DreamWorks' film SINCE the original Shrek, and how about the fact that that film is STILL in the Top 5? Well, if Dragon was meant as a tentpole, then mission very well accomplised.

Still, by the time any series reaches its fourth installment, the characters are completely familiar to us, and you know what they say: “familiarity breeds contempt”. And even though the last film in the series, 2007's Shrek the Third, was able to eclipse $320 million in domestic receipts, it was seen almost universally as markedly inferior to the first two films (case in point: its User Rating was only 6.1, way down from the 8.0 and 7.5 ratings the first two films got).

But the people at Paramount have been relentlessly pushing Shrek Forever After as the last film in the series, and one would think that people would be interested to see the ultimate fate of the most famous ogre in history, and in 3D no less. That's right, this film will be taking over most of the country's 3D screens, and will likely be there for a solid month until Toy Story 3(D) comes out.

The plot: by this time, Shrek (Mike Myers) has become fully domesticated, living with his beloved Fiona (Cameron Diaz) and kids. However, like many middle-aged marrieds, he longs for his glory days, when he felt like a “real ogre”. Enter the smooth-talking Rumplestiltskin (Walt Dohrn), who schmoozes Shrek into signing a pact that will give him what he thinks is a day to himself, but in reality, is really a ruse to seize power.

Awakening in a twisted parallel-universe to the land of Far Far Away, Shrek is horrified to find that everything has changed. His friends Donkey (Eddie Murphy) and Puss in Boots (Antonio Banderas) don't recognize him, and Fiona – who never met Shrek and now hates him – is ruthlessly hunted. And oh, yeah, Rumplestiltskin (complete with troll-doll hairdo) is now king, after Prince Artie (Justin Timberlake) was forced to abdicate. The catch – and there always is one – is that if Shrek and Fiona can exchange their “true love's kiss” within the day, all will be as it was.. and Rumple will do whatever it takes to stop that happening. The usual cast of supporting characters (Gingy, the Three Little Pigs, the Three Blind Mice, the Big Bad Wolf, etc.) are present, as usual.

One would think that if Shrek the Third can make $300 million, then Shrek Forever After can too. On the one hand, you have to realize that the most successful movies so far this year (Alice in Wonderland, How to Train Your Dragon, and to an extent Iron Man 2) have been kids-and-teens movies, and Shrek is a most beloved character with kids, and has been for nearly a decade. Kids and their parents WILL line up to see this, especially given that it's the last taste they'll get before the ogre with the Scottish brogue rides off into the sunset. (And one can only wonder if this is the last blockbuster any of its male primary stars will be a part of...)

I'm loathe to go overboard in predicting a windfall on its OW, though. Can Shrek Forever After succeed after Iron Man 2 marginally failed to pull in repeat business? When all is said and done, I'm going to have to say “no”. Early reviews for Shrek 4 have been bad (33% on RT with only 2/6 positive reviews), and the User Rating hasn't been promising either (6.8 on 311 votes). So I will predict $66 million in its first three days, with only 25-35% drops in its next four weeks, finally ending up around $250 million, the least successful film in the franchise. It will still get 12-13 Top 5 points, six PTA and a rating around 6.5, which isn't that bad but... This film will run you $32 in the May Ultimate leagues. If you haven't already blown $38 on Iron Man 2, I would suggest you think hard about picking this up. Absolutely pick up Toy Story 3 either way. $34 in Box Office may work out better for you, but maybe not.

Up next is MacGruber, which has the double-whammy of being not only a spoof (of sorts), but also the latest film to be based on a Saturday Night Live sketch, two things that tend to spell disaster at the box office. However, let me preface my critique by starting off with what they're saying over at RT: namely, that this film is GREAT. Seriously, go check for yourself. Seven out of seven critics have given a thumbs-up to MacGruber, an action-film parody based loosely on the TV show MacGyver, which starred Richard Dean Anderson as the “people's hero” who could fashion anything he wanted out of anything that was available.

Will Forte plays the titular MacGruber, an ex-Special Ops guy who tragically lost his fiancee ten years earlier, and has since dedicated his life to fighting crime with his bare hands. But when his sworn enemy, Dieter Von Cunth (Val Kilmer) steals a nuclear warhead and threatens to destroy Washington D.C. with it, MacGruber is called back into action by Col. Jim Faith (Powers Boothe), along with his team, Lt. Dixon Piper (Ryan Philippe) and Vicki St. Elmo (Kristen Wiig). Maya Rudolph and Bill Hader also co-star.

So which way do I go? I mean, it's great that the critics are loving this film, against all odds, but I still can't find myself recommending it. I've long since grown bored of SNL and its big-screen adaptations, and besides the fact that I haven't seen much advertising for this film (comparatively speaking), it's only bowing in 2,400 theaters, which means it'll have the near-impossible task of cracking the Top 3.

With Shrek 4, Iron Man 2 and Robin Hood holding sway, there is no way that MacGruber will finish higher than #4, and with Prince of Persia: The Sands of time and Sex And the City 2 coming next week, those two Top 5 points is all it will get. Which means $9 in Ultimate is too steep a price. I wouldn't pay $9 in Box Office either, unless you can convince yourself that MacGruber has $50 million in it sights. I personally don't.

And now, a little bit about this weekend's three limited-release movies.

Perrier's Bounty ($4 Ult) – This is an Irish crime-thriller/comedy that premiered last year at the Toronto Film Festival to mixed reviews (currently at 55% on 11/20 at RT). It stars Cillian Murphy as a man who is in debt to a gang leader (Brendan Gleeson), and who will suffer considerable harm if he fails to pay up. Seeking respite by borrowing from a criminal lender (Liam Cunningham), things then complicate further when his estranged father (Jim Broadbent), who is convinced that he's going to die if he falls asleep, becomes involved.

Between reading this and watching the trailer, it's obvious that there's a lot going on. Perrier's Bounty is scheduled, according to BOM, to be released on only one theater (in New York). That could be good for PTA, but Shrek will most likely win that category regardless. You might scare up two or three for the $4 price tag, along with a 6.9 User Rating, so that's not too bad.

Holy Rollers ($3 Ult) – Director Kevin Asch is behind this independent drama from First Independent Pictures, which features Zombieland star Jessie Eisenberg, Justin Bartha and Ari Graynor. Inspired by events that took place just over a decade ago, Holy Rollers centers on the character of Sam Gold (Eisenberg), a Hasidic Jew from Brooklyn who is reluctant to follow the path his family has set for him – namely, an arranged marriage and studying to become a rabbi.

Sensing his discomfort, his neighbor Yosef (Bartha) talks him into transporting “medicine” for an Israeli dealer named Jackie (Danny Abeckaser) and his girlfriend (Graynor). Of course, “medicine” is just a code word for “drugs”, and when Sam discovers that he not only has an aptitude but a taste for this lifestyle, things go from bad to worse, and must make decisions on whether to continue down the spiral or find a way back to the straight and narrow.

Reviews (5/8 positive on RT) and Ratings (6.4 on 80 votes) have been just so-so, so spending your $3 here is risky. According to the film's official site, it will be debuting on three screens in New York and Los Angeles, which is a good safe number for PTA, but again, it's risky. It may have been a Sundance selection, but that's no guarantee of success.

Kites ($3 Ult) – This is the second Bollywood film this month, but hopefully it will fare better than Badmaash Company (whose numbers were never even reported). In this film, a young man named Jai (Hrithik Roshan) falls madly in love with a Mexican beauty named Natasha (Barbara Mori), who is desperate to make her fortune in the U.S. any way she can, including becoming engaged to a wealthy man whose morals are, shall we say, questionable...

Before the happy couple know it, they are on the run for their lives. But this being Bollywood, you know there'll be music. And dancing. And if you're wondering about the title, it's a little tenuous, but the tagline reads: “Love should have no strings attached”. Uh... yeah.

It is unclear just how many theaters this will be shown in, but according to the film's website, both English and Hindi versions of the film will be “released worldwide simultaneously” on May 21st. That probably spells “no PTA”, as if you needed me to tell you that.


My predictions for the weekend of May 21-23, 2010:

1. Shrek Forever After - $66 million
2. Iron Man 2 - $25 million
3. Robin Hood - $21 million
4. MacGruber - $11 million
5. Letters to Juliet - $7 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, four more films take center stage as we close out May, including: Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time, an adaptation of the successful video game starring Jake Gyllenhaal and Ben Kingsley; Sex and the City 2, a sequel to the highly-successful chick flick from 2008 that was based on the also-successful HBO series; as well as two limited-release features, Micmacs and George Romero's Survival of the Dead.

Later!






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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/21

Post by Buscemi »

I'm still taking the MacGruber rating with a grain of salt. The reviews were obviously from the SXSW showing and from I know, every movie from there gets a positive reception. Which means that you can't take those reviews seriously. Here's betting that Universal withholds the film from critics and when actual critics see the movie, it will struggle to say above 33%.

Meanwhile, I'm betting that Kites gets some PTA points and a nice gross for a limited release. The film is one of the, if not THE, most highly-anticipated Bollywood films of the year. The same distributor was also responisible for 3 Idiots, one of the widest-released and most successful Bollywood films of all-time in the US. In short, don't be surprised if the film finishes well on opening weekend (maybe even Top 10 well but that's an outside chance).

However, the US cut (which was prepared by Brett Ratner and loses 30 minutes) may get panned as an attempt to appeal to more Western audiences than the traditional Bollywood audience.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/21

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

I really, really want to see MacGruber because of all of the good WOM. Plus, the most watched episode of SNL this season (the Betty White one) featured a handful of MacGruber sketches prominently, plus I've seen more commercials for this than anything else. There's no comedies out right now so it'll have very little competition this weekend. I think it'll do 20M this weekend, counterprogramming against a kids movie, ala Madagascar 2/Role Models, HTTYD/Hot Tub Time Machine, and Stuart Little/Next Friday. All of the comedies in those examples made around 60M.

And I think Shrek will go higher, more like 80-90M. Shrek 3 made $120M it's OW, and although a lot of people didn't like it, there's also a dearth of kids movies right now. I think the reason Dragon is doing so well is that families are going back to see it since nothing else is out (and even kids know Furry Vengeance is shit). PLUS the higher ticket prices for 3D and IMAX 3D won't hurt.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/21

Post by thswrestler160 »

wow really 66? thats like 50% of the ow of the last one. add in inflation and the fact that its in IMAX and 3d and thats supposed to be like 65% lower pta than the last one. so far the #4 movie in series seem to be doing pretty good. Indy4 made-318, final destination 4-66 compared to the first which was about the same, fast and furious4-155. but your expecting shrek 4 which has alot of things going for it to be the one to break the cycle and open significantly lower that the last one.

Also Iron man 2 opened higher than the first so of course we can expect a bigger drop. but at this point it has already made 212 after 10 days which is like 13 or 14 on the all time like and in order not to make 300 it will have to plummet like a rock for the next couple of weeks. this weekend was almost exactly like iron mans 2nd weekend so if you just give them the same pattern for the rest of the way factoring in slightly higher drops compared to its predicessor it will still finish around 320-330 or so.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/21

Post by J.I. »

I agree with wrestler. Iron Man 2 is still making $300 million. As for Shrek Forever After, it could disappoint, but I can't see it going THAT low. Shrek 3 adjusted for inflation would be at $133 million, and adjusted for 3D ticket prices it would be the biggest opening of all time. With no other family movies out now (other than HTTYD) Shrek 4 should still get $90+ million.

But if Shryke is right about this one like he was with Iron Man 2, this whole summer will be full of disappointments.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/21

Post by Brockster »

Early tracking shows Shrek at 85M and MacGruber at 8M.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/21

Post by undeadmonkey »

yea, i must disagree with the shrek prediction as well. it will open way higher than $66M, i see it closer to $100M. and i see Iron Man 2 topping out close to $300 without passing it.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/21

Post by transformers2 »

Just out of curiousity I am the only one who still loves SNL? I personally can't wait for MacGruber and the early WOM has me ever more excited!
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/21

Post by undeadmonkey »

I still watch it, and there have been quite a few hilarious episodes this season. betty white was genius!

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/21

Post by transformers2 »

Yes the Betty White episode was hillarious. Personally I thought the best one this season was Zach Galinfinakis. Every skit was hysterical.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/21

Post by Buscemi »

Well it looks like MacGruber has stayed above 33%. Its current rating is 56% (most likely held above the typical SNL movie numbers by online critics who actually thought Hot Rod was good).
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/21

Post by J.I. »

Well after looking at several crowd reports (and seeing it myself), you win this round too, Shryke.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/21

Post by Shrykespeare »

I do? Cool!

Could you elaborate?
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/21

Post by thswrestler160 »

damn you shryke. would you do me a favor and predict a huge opening for splice?

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/21

Post by transformers2 »

Buscemi wrote:Well it looks like MacGruber has stayed above 33%. Its current rating is 56% (most likely held above the typical SNL movie numbers by online critics who actually thought Hot Rod was good).
You seriously have the stupidest fucking excuses when you are wrong about something.
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