SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/27

[numbersix]

It’s spooky season. And like a cliched horror film, the box office remains a deserted town, with only the terrifying silhouette of a middle-of-the-road pop singer skulking about. The studios missed an opportunity by fleeing from the cinemas when people are still hungry for that theatrical experience. The good news is that Martin Scorsese’s latest at least has been given space to breathe, with his 200-minute Killers of the Flower Moon making a respectable $23m last weekend. It’s hardly close to cover the $200m budget, but as a streamer release it goes to show that hybrid models can work, for the right film.

This weekend will see people running through the streets, firing projectiles at homes, terrifying families so much that they’ll be forced to barricade themselves in. But enough about Gaza City, it’s Halloween time, and we know what that means. Yes, another attempt at resurrecting a moribund franchise. Fortunately, most of us have already forgotten The Exorcist: Believer, but a new franchise seems ready to murder the competition




Five Nights at Freddy’s (Universal) is an adaptation of the horror video game. At a glance, none of this sounds promising, and one would be forgiven for assuming this would be the type of short-lived low-rent Blumhouse C-movie that opens around $10m just because of the season, before unceremoniously being dumped. However, look deeper and you’ll realise that the game was a massive success, starting as an indie experiment that spawned about 7 sequels, several spin-offs, as well as books and comics. It’s the Halloween of indie games, and has built a massive following. The film follows the same premise, where a security guard (Josh Hutcherson) works in an abandoned pizzeria only to be attacked by its murderous animatronic mascots.

The fans seem ready to flock to this, and the trailer suggests enough fun and jolts to delight a teen audience. Some analysts are predicting a $50m opening, which seems crazy, but it’s hard to ignore the tracking numbers. A $40m opening is possible with a $90m cume, and in Ultimate you’ll also get at least 11 T5 points, 3 PTA, and a low-6 IMDB score. But even if it earned half of that, it would still be worth it, because the film is priced at $7 in both games. So drop whatever mid range flick you’ve picked, and get with Freddy.




The only other wide release is Freelance (Relativity). No, it’s not a film about having to spend countless hours taking meetings and going to networking events just to find some contract work, or doing free jobs to boost your profile, or chasing people who are refusing to pay your invoice 6 months after issuing. It’s just some dumb-ass action comedy, starring John Cena and Alison Brie, neither of which have enough clout to make this a hit film. And with Relativity overseeing the release, expect this to open to less than $5m, and close in the low teens. At best. The potential 1 T5 point doesn’t make it worth your $4 in either game.


The real battle is in the arthouse theatres.




Firstly, Priscilla (A24) has a release date that’s been changing a lot. Basically, A24 were cautious about this one, but the great reviews out of Venice made them really regret selling most international rights to MUBI. What they’re doing in the US is going wide on Nov 3rd, but it seems it’s out in 2-4 theatres this weekend, mostly in NY. The film, a revisionist look at the Elvis Presley story from the POV of his wife as a sort of one-sided love affair, could see some award attention, and Sophia Coppola’s name alone guarantees this is going to have an incredible PTA this weekend. It also has the potential to be a mild breakout arthouse film, especially with the lack of competition across November. This could make 10-15m by the end of its run, and in Ultimate you could see 6 PTA points, 1-2 T5 points, and a 7 IMDB score. For $5 in Ultimate that’s all right, though probably worth skipping in BO.




However, in the opposite corner is The Holdovers (Focus), one of the few films that wisely moved its release day up to fill the content gap. It’s the latest Alex Payne film, and fortunately does not involve people shrinking themselves. Its being marketed as an old-school comedy drama, about a boarding-school student who’s forced to spend the holidays with the most disliked teacher in the school (played by Paul Giamatti). Reviews have been strong out of festivals, and this should appeal to an older crowd susceptible to nostalgia-targeted ads campaigns. It opens in a handful of theatres this weekend, then expands next weekend until a wide release on Nov 10th. This is another promising option, and if Priscilla takes the PTA crown this weekend, expect Payne to work better as an Ultimate pick, nabbing 7-8 PTA points, 1-2 T5, and a high 6s IMDB. It’s a little pricier at $6, but worth considering for your slate. In BO, $6 is too much for a film that may not go much beyond $20m.


Finally, Sight was due to come out this week, but it lost its date, so you’ll just have to wait a little longer for the biggest film of the year.


Predictions for the weekend

1. 5 Nights in Freddy’s Stuffed Butt - $40m
2. Taylor getting Swifty with it- $15m
3. Killers of the Flower Moon - $12m
4. Freelancing is Hell - $3.5m
5. The Exorcist: Naiver - $2.8m

PTA: Priscilla, The Holdovers, 5 Nights, Anatomy of a Fall, Taylor


Tune in next week to see somebody, or potentially nobody, examine the limited releases The Marsh King’s Daughter, Radical, What Happens Later, and All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt (a very inaccurate title, I might add).

[Buscemi2]

I'm surprised by the interest in Five Nights at Freddy's. The day-and-date platform and the film arriving way past the game's peak would make it sound like a flop but a lot of people are going to see it this weekend. It could hit $50-60 million this weekend had it been an "only in theatres" title.

In other news, After Death, a pseudo-documentary about people who claimed to see supreme beings before being revived, is getting a semi-wide release this weekend. But don't expect Sound of Freedom numbers with it. Evangelicals like a different kind of bullshit artist.

[numbersix]

Honestly, I can't explain these numbers either, and would never have expected this, but the tracking and social media interest are through the roof.

What is good about this is the potential adaptation of non-triple-A video games, as the indie games tend to have better stories and concepts.

[StarLord123]

FNaF has exploded in pre-sales, apparently it's even rivaling blockbusters from earlier this year such as Across the Spider-Verse. It'll be more frontloaded of course, but I could honestly see it getting as high as $70-80M for the weekend. I don't plan on seeing it in theaters, but I might as well try it out on Peacock. The 2nd weekend should be interesting too, since even though Halloween will be over and it'll be streaming, it could have a half-decent hold if people actually like it, due to that weekend being a ghost town.

[transformers2]

My video game playing has mostly been limited to first person shooters, fighting games and sports games for most of my life, so I was completely oblivious to the Five Nights at Freddy's phenomenon. Anyways, I can see it topping 60 mil this weekend. I don't think I've seen such strong pre-sales for a horror movie since It: Chapter Two and the day-and-date factor should be irrelevant since Peacock has about 1,500 total subscribers.

[Buscemi2]

Peacock has 24 million subscribers as of July but you do still make a point.

[Buscemi2]

I have no interest in Five Nights at Freddy's, but I do like this Fandango-exclusive poster and kind of wish this had been the main poster.

[Buscemi2]

Depending on how well it opens, Five Nights at Freddy's will drop fast. Early reviews firmly place it in the worst of the year category.

[transformers2]

Five Nights at Freddy's did $10.3 mil in previews yesterday, which indicates a $70+ mil debut is attainable

[Buscemi2]

There were so many people going to see Five Nights at Freddy's last night. I'm amazed how many thought it was acceptable to take their kids to see this one.

But then again, I remember people doing the same for the 2018 Halloween.

[StarLord123]

The movie's PG-13 and it's an IP that's popular with the middle school crowd, so it's a little different than taking a kid to an R-rated slasher.

[Buscemi2]

But these were small children being taken to Five Nights at Freddy's. I don't care if it's a PG-13, you shouldn't be taking them to something like this. Of course, these same parents are probably the kinds of people who think Call of Duty is appropriate for a six year-old when there are numerous Mario games or something that's actually kid-friendly to choose from.

Meanwhile, Freelance might be the first wide released, mainstream film in a long time with a 0% Rotten Tomatoes score. But I'm sure some contrarian like Mick LaSalle or quote whore like NYC Movie Guru will give it a positive review as they usually do for something like this.

[transformers2]

I found Freelance to be wildly mediocre, so it didn't stand a chance among people with taste!

[Buscemi2]

I'm still amazed it got a wide release. Had it come out last year, it would have been day-and-date and only fans of Peacemaker would have bothered.

You'd think John Cena would be trying to go the Dave Bautista route and pick good directors to work with.

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascores:

After Death: A-
Five Nights at Freddy's: A- (I can't remember the last time a horror film had this high of a Cinemascore, especially given how much critics disliked this one)
Freelance: B- (I was expecting this one to be in the D range)