Tranny Tackles The Cinema: The Films of 10/18, 10/20

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After a rough couple of months where the only things on the marquee were the occasional modest hit and a string of DOA franchise films and mid-budgeted ensemble vehicles, a sequined savior arrived to provide some life to the box office.

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour smashed every single record for a concert movie in just over 3 days of business with its $92.8 mil debut. Becoming the highest grossing concert movie of all time in 1 weekend is an insane testament to Swift's popularity and it's a figure that will likely only become more impressive with time once other high-profile artists follow her lead and release concert films of their own-starting with Beyonce on December 1st. How it will fare on weekend #2 is a mystery given the genre and lack of relevant comparables, but it does need to be noted that the tickets are non-refundable and non-transferable, so there are a number of people out there that got shut out last weekend that had to settle for tickets this weekend during the initial onsale surge before they added more OW showings.

Swift's impact didn't end there. The mass date shuffling that The Eras Tour's late arrival on the theatrical calendar caused led to some barren slates for the inaugural three weeks of October, which led to the holdovers that were brave enough to stay put all enjoying solid holds. Everything from Paw Patrol ($6.9 mil, -39%) to A Haunting in Venice ($1.9 mil, -27%) to the seemingly universally despised The Exorcist: Believer ($11 mil, -59%) all fared better than expected going up against the concert movie juggernaut and they helped provide the extra juice the marketplace needed to help produce the best BO results since the weekend of August 4-6.

On the limited front, Anatomy of a Fall's debut commanded the spotlight. This year's Palm d'Or winner posted solid numbers raking in $117,848 from 5 theaters ($23,569 PTA). It will expand to a few more cities this week, which should allow it to remain a major PTA player before it breaks nationwide next Friday.

The Steven Soderbergh-produced surrealist sci-fi flick Divinity was the week's only other limited opener, earning $5,113 from its sole screen at NYC's Regal Union Square. That's a pretty decent number for a gonzo genre pic that's earned polarizing reviews and was competing for eyeballs alongside two major debuts in the Big Apple. Keep an eye on it this week as it expands to LA for some special 35 mm runs.

Wide Release:
The gradual unveiling of this fall's prospective awards slate continues this week with the first true contender that critics and industry fatcats got to see at Cannes all the way back in May when Hollywood hadn't fully shut down yet due to corporate greed and stupidity from studio brass. Killers of the Flower Moon (Paramount/Apple) marks Martin Scorsese's return to the theatrical space after a brief vacation in the world of streaming with The Irishman and he brought along two of his favorite collaborators in Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro to commemorate the occasion.

The fact-based film based on David Grann's 2017 novel tells the story of a string of murders that were perpetuated against wealthy members of the Osage tribe of Oklahoma by white outsiders seeking to gain power of the oil that had on their land from 1918-1931. DiCaprio and De Niro play the nephew and uncle that helped orchestrate the killings while Lily Gladstone-best known for her collaborations with Kelly Reichardt on Certain Women and First Cow-plays the Osage woman DiCaprio marries in the hope of getting access to her fortune.

After Oppenheimer's historic run this summer, many BO pundits interpreted its success as evidence that audiences have a renewed appetite for “adult” dramas. Killers of the Flower Moon should provide a great test for that hypothesis. Not only has the film received raves and been pegged as one of the year's top awards contenders, it's based on a popular novel that came out not too long ago, is helmed by one of the most iconic directors in cinema history and has one of the top draws in the business in DiCaprio in the lead role.

While it wouldn't be realistic to expect this to clear $300 mil like Oppenheimer, it should be able to good business. The marketing has been aggressive and done a good job of making it seem like an event that needs to be seen on the big screen and more importantly, it has zero competition at the moment and there's not another adult-aimed movie of this scale hitting theaters until Napoleon a month from now. I'm currently expecting it to finish somewhere between Hugo ($73.9 mil) and The Wolf of Wall Street ($116 mil), but it definitely has the potential to go higher if the WOM from the average moviegoers proves to be excellent.

Price: $14 ULT/$14 BO
Predictions: $18-35 mil OW/4-8 PTA/7-12 Top 5/low to mid 8 IMDB/ $55-115 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Even with its possibly shaky floor, it's worth a look.


Limited Releases:
Keeping with the trend of Cannes debuts, we have The Delinquents (MUBI)-which is getting an early start on Flower Moon by opening in theaters today. This Argentine heist comedy-drama which has been tapped to be Argentina's official entry for this year's Best International Feature Film race focuses on a Buenos Aries bank teller who confides in a co-worker that he stole $650,000 from the bank they currently work at. He plans to turn himself in for his crimes, but before he does, he offers his co-worker the opportunity to split the stolen loot with him if he agrees to hide it for the duration of his incarceration. Will this gentleman aid in a crime or do the morally right thing and refuse the cash? Well, they would probably have some difficulty making a 3-hour movie out of the latter, so I think we all know the answer.

Raves aside, The Delinquents is in a kind of tough spot to succeed as its opening in a crowded limited marketplace and has the backing of MUBI-who hasn't really established a footprint stateside yet outside of last year's pretty successful theatrical run for Decision to Leave. It might be able to grab a PTA point or two for this weekend, but after that, it should fade away pretty quickly as films from a pair of heavy-hitters in Alexander Payne and Sofia Coppola are set to hit NYC/LA theaters next weekend.
Price: $3 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $8-15k OW/0-2 PTA/0 Top 5/low to mid 7 IMDb/$20-65k total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Probably not.


Here's a somewhat surprising/depressing fun fact: The Persian Version (Sony Classics) is the first Sundance Audience Award winner to play exclusively in theaters since 2019's Brittany Runs a Marathon. Does this distinction mean its destined to do well? Probably not.

A dramedy about a struggling Iranian-American filmmaker (Layla Mohammadi) navigating an unexpected pregnancy, her father's (Bijan Daneshmand) heart transplant and the volatile relationship she has with her successful, overbearing mother (Niousha Noor) has the sounds of a classic Sundance crowdpleaser, and the people in attendance clearly found it to be just that as it edged out the likes of Theater Camp, A Thousand and One and Fair Play for the Audience Award. But as we've seen time and time again in recent years, little indie movies like this just have a really hard time getting off the ground these days. Releasing The Persian Version at a time of year where the arthouse space is loaded with splashy titles only further darkens its BO prospects. $5-6 mil seems like the absolute highest can get it to and that ceiling is only possible since Sony Classics is platforming it over the next 2 weeks before it goes wide on November 3.
Price: $3 ULT/$2 BO
Predictions: $30-$60k OW/1-3 PTA/0 Top 5/high 6 to low 7 IMDb/$1.5-6 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: No.


Weekend Predictions:
1.Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour $34 mil
2.Killers of the Flower Moon $28 mil
3.The Exorcist: Believer $6 mil
4.Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie $4.5 mil
5.Saw X $4 mil

-Dicks: The Musical $2.5 mil (wide expansion)

PTA: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, The Persian Version, The Delinquents

Tune in next week when six breaks down a slate that includes the long-gestating adaptation of a popular online video game, Focus' top Oscar contender for this year, Sofia Coppola's examination of the legacy of American icon and Pierre Morel's first ever venture into the world of intentional action comedy.

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There's been no marketing whatsoever for The Persian Version. Between that and reviews not being glowing, expect this to find its audience on Netflix.

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This movie supposedly cost $200M, it probably won't make that budget back, but the notion seems to be that since this is an Apple co-production, they're mainly focused on awards and pushing their streaming service, and that the theatrical run is just bonus to them.

I've never actually seen a Scorsese film in theaters before so this'll be a first for me. The runtime is a bit much, but I did see Avatar 2 (14 minutes shorter) twice in theaters so as long as this is paced well I'm up for it.

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It was probably more than that. The Irishman was said to have cost at much as $250 million instead of the originally reported $159 million due to the complex visual effects sequences. I'd estimate Killers of the Flower Moon was closer to $225 million due to the years of development and false starts.

As for the division of the production budget, Paramount is only on the hook for half the budget and all marketing costs (probably around $50-75 million). Apple put up the other half in exchange for exclusive streaming rights. Paramount would need at least $437.5 million worldwide to break even, which is doable as this will likely be bigger internationally than domestically.

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Killers of the Flower Moon gets an A- Cinemascore.

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Weekend Estimates:
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour $31 mil
Killers of the Flower Moon $23 mil
The Exorcist: Believer $5.6 mil
Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie $4.5 mil
The Nightmare Before Christmas Re-Release $4.1 mil
Saw X $3.6 mil
The Creator $2.6 mil
Leo: Bloody Sweat $2.1 mil
A Haunting in Venice $1.1 mil
The Blind $1 mil

-The Persian Version $87k

PTA:
Anatomy of a Fall $11k
The Persian Version $9.7k
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour $8k
Killers of the Flower Moon $6.3k
Divinity $3.3k

No word on The Deliquents yet

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In case anyone was wondering, Leo: Bloody Sweet is a Tamil film.

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Weekend Actuals:
1.Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour $33.2 mil
2.Killers of the Flower Moon $23.3 mil
3.The Exorcist: Believer $5.7 mil
4.Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie $4.4 mil
5.The Nightmare Before Christmas $4.3 mil
6.Saw X $3.6 mil
7.The Creator $2.7 mil
8.Leo: Bloody Sweat $2.1 mil
9.A Haunting in Venice $1.1 mil
10.The Blind $1 mil

-The Persian Version $75,592
-The Delinquents $8,969

PTA:
1.Anatomy of a Fall $10,880 (14 theaters)
2.Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour $8,615
3.The Persian Version $8,399 (9 theaters)
4.Killers of the Flower Moon $6,409
5.The Delinquents $4,485 (2 theaters)