Screening The Releases - September 29th

[Screen203]

Last Week

While there was big entertainment news of the week in the AMTMP finally paying their writers, not much was happening at the box office. The Nun II held in first place for a third week with around 8.5 m, dropping a modest 41 percent, for a total nearing 70 m so far. While it will gross well short of the first, considering the very poor reception of that film and the declining influence of the Conjuring Universe, it's a very solid result. In second, Expend4bles tanked, grossing about 8 m. There was always the question as to why Lionsgate chose to revive this particular franchise, considering the third film didn't do well to begin with, and it should drop off very quickly. In third, A Haunting In Venice failed to save face, dropping 56 percent to gross about 6 m, for a total so far of 25 m. This particular kind of adult-skewing, period piece horror never does particularly well, but I was hoping that the Poriot/Agatha Christie connection would help this one. A more successful threequel followed, as The Equalizer 3 dropped 34 percent to gross almost 5 m, for a total so far of 81 m. In fifth was Barbie, dropping just 16 percent (helped by an IMAX release with extra footage), for an incredible total so far of 630 m. Outside the Top 5, It Lives Inside opened in seventh with around 2.5 m. While not a great number, it is the highest initially wide result for Neon so far.

The highest PTA of the releases in the game once again went to Dumb Money. In its semi-wide expansion, it grossed about 2.5 m, grossing almost 4 k per theater. I don't think it will do all that much better in its wide expansion this weekend, but we will see. The re-release of Stop Making Sense also did fairly well, grossing about 3 k per theater. Third and fourth went The Nun II and Expend4bles, with both grossing about 2 k per theater. FIfth went to A Haunting In Venice, which grossed almost 2 k per theater.

This Week

Saw X



The world's goriest soap opera returns, and is a bit of a wild card in terms of box-office potential. While the previous two installments both underperformed, this is a prequel set between the first two films having Tobin Bell in a major role again. While being released by the struggling Lionsgate is a concern, they have actually done a very strong job marketing this (a parody of the AMC Nicole Kidman commercial was particularly well-done). That being said, there are some things going against it. There is a lot of competition, with the more mainstream-friendly The Exorcist: Believer releasing next week and The Nun II still in the marketplace, and the series's ultraviolent content and convoluted storyline make it a tough sell to those outside the fanbase (though reviews have been very strong so far). That being said, I think this should still overperform and be the biggest Saw film since 2008, at least on OW.

I expect an OW of 25 m, and a total of 60 m

It will get you 5 PTA points, 5-10 Top 5 points, and a score of 8 on IMDb.

Take it in Box Office and Ultimate if you have any space left over for two days of grosses.

The Creator



This is another one that is difficult to predict. Reviews have been mixed so far, and original sci-fi can be a very hard sell. In addition, while it is an original film, the premise (though very relevant today with it's discussion of AI) is very similar to other sci-fi movies, and the title is rather non-descript. That being said, I feel like Disney/20th Century Studios has done a decent job advertising it, I could see it being a crowdpleaser, and there is little competition for it until The Marvels in mid-November.

I expect an OW of 20 m, and a total of 70 m.

It will get you 3 PTA points, 6-12 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

If you have any money left over, not a bad choice in either Box Office or Ultimate.

Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie



This is yet another difficult film to predict. While there has been a drought of children's films as of late, this one skews especially young. That being said, the Paw Patrol brand is probably strong enough that parents will be dragged to see it.

I expect an OW of 21 m, and a total of 75 m.

It will get you 4 PTA points, 10-15 Top 5 points, and a score of 5 on IMDb.

If you still have money left, not a bad choice in either Box Office or Ultimate.

Carlos: The Santana Journey



I'm not sure how this will do. While Carlos Santana is obviously a very well-known figure, I don't know how much appetite there is for theatrically-released (besides the Stop Making Sense re-release) music documentaries at the moment. Additionally, Carlos has made some transphobic comments recently, which is unlikely to help the public image of this movie. Even if he hadn't, he hasn't been a particularly relevant figure in the music industry as of late (I don't believe he has had a hit song since the early 2000's).

I expect an opening PTA of 5 k, and a total under 1 m.

It will get you 2 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Probably not worth picking up in either Box Office or Ultimate.

Top 5

Saw X - 25 m
Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie - 21 m
The Creator - 20 m
Dumb Money - 6 m
The Nun II - 5 m

PTA

Saw X - 8 k
Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie - 6 k
The Creator - 5.5 k
Carlos: The Santana Journey - 5 k
Dumb Money - 2 k

Next Week

Join me for a weekend with the return of The Exorcist, as well as a LOT of limited releases.

[transformers2]

Saw X is indeed a hard one to gauge. The marketing stunts in recent weeks have been terrific and the WOM should be great based on the early word, but I don't know how many people are still invested in the franchise this point. Somewhere in the $15-20 mil range is where I see it finishing.

Paw Patrol seems like the strongest candidate to emerge from the logjam of new wide releases with the top spot. The show is still popular, the presales have been pretty strong and it's been a while since something aimed at really young kids was released.

[Buscemi2]

Saw X had a really good turnout at my showing tonight. I think horror fans are going to like this one.

Meanwhile, I think Dumb Money makes a lot less. With its numbers last week, Sony shouldn't have added so many theatres.

[transformers2]

Preview totals:
Saw X $2 mil
The Creator $1.6 mil (includes Wednesday's Dolby/IMAX previews)

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascores:

Paw Patrol: A
The Creator: B+
Saw X: B

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie $23 mil
Saw X $18 mil
The Creator $14 mil
The Nun II $4.7 mil
The Blind $4.1 mil
A Haunting in Venice $3.8 mil
Dumb Money $3.5 mil
The Equalizer 3 $2.7 mil
Expend4bles $2.5 mil
Barbie $1.4 mil

PTA:
Paw Patrol $5.8 k
Saw X $5.5 k
The Creator $3.8k
The Nun II $1.6k
A Haunting in Venice $1.4k

No word on Carlos yet

[Buscemi2]

The numbers on The Creator and Dumb Money pretty establish that audiences really don't want two concepts the studios have been pushing for a while: the "technology is evil" subgenre and the "rich people have feelings" subgenre. But of course, they'll keep going with these as long as one of them does well or they keep listening to YouTube clickbaiters on ideas.

And I didn't realize that many people missed Duck Dynasty.

[transformers2]

Dumb Money does not portray hedge fund managers or the lifestyle they enjoy in an even remotely favorable light (although it hilariously enough does make it seem like that Ken Griffin is such a huge piece of shit that even the other hedge fund guys hate him). How you could arrive at the conclusion that its some kind of pro-rich guy movie is just baffling.

[Buscemi2]

Because the whole story is just rich people taking on richer people in a quest to make more money. You can't relate to it or put yourself into the characters' shoes unless you really care about the stock market.

And besides, nothing of any lasting importance happened in the real story. Steve Cohen still owns the Mets, GameStop keeps declining, most people don't even know who the people who beat the short are, and the Winklevoss Twins got to produce their movie only a few people will ever see.

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie $22.8 mil
2.Saw X $18.3 mil
3.The Creator $14.1 mil
4.The Nun II $4.8 mil
5.The Blind $4.3 mil
6.A Haunting in Venice $3.6 mil
7.Dumb Money $3.3 mil
8.The Equalizer 3 $2.7 mil
9.Expend4bles $2.5 mil
10.Barbie $1.4 mil

-Carlos $366,675

PTA:
1.Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie $5,707
2.Saw X $5,613
3.The Creator $3,826
4.The Nun II $1,671
5.Stop Making Sense $1,324

-Carlos $678 (541 theaters)

[Buscemi2]

I wonder how much of the Carlos gross is from last week. Sony did a number of preview showings nationwide, including a few in my area.