Tranny Tackles The Cinema: The Films of 9/22

[transformers2]

Just when Hercule Poriot thought he had the crown in the bag, Valak jump-scared her way back to the top.

While A Haunting in Venice did narrowly top Death on the Nile's $12.9 debut and finish in its tracking range with a $14.3 mil start, it was unable to unseat The Nun II-which eased a better-than-expected 55% and made $14.5 mil-as the #1 movie at the domestic box office. What makes The Nun II's win even more impressive is that it had ceded all of the PLF screens it held in its OW to A Haunting in Venice. The lesson to be learned is that here that despite its BO being nowhere near its peak of 2013-2018, The Conjuring Universe is still a draw and likely won't be coming to an end anytime soon.

Rounding on the top 5 on this pretty dismal, holdover-driven weekend at the box office that ended up being the slowest since Feb 10-12 was The Equalizer 3 ($7.2 mil), My Big Greek Wedding 3 ($4.8 mil) and Barbie ($3.8 mil). All 3 of these films should remain in the top 5-7 mix on what appears to have the makings of an even slower weekend than last.

There was a bit more action on the limited front as Dumb Money and Invisible Beauty both logged solid debuts. Sony's fact-based GameStop short squeeze dramedy racked up just under $221k from 8 theaters ($27,618 per theater) while the Bethann Hardison doc earned $12,085 from its exclusive run at NYC's The Film Forum. Both titles are set for expansions this weekend (roughly 200 theaters for Dumb Money, TBD for Invisible Beauty ) but have great chances of racking up some more PTA points before they break wider next week.


Wide Releases:
About 2 weeks ago today during the 2023 NFL Kickoff game, I received the following text from my best friend who has never watched a ton of movies and watches even less now that he's married with a 1-year old: “Expendables 4 no way”. What a succinct, eloquent way to react to the existence of Expend4bles (Lionsgate). It's been just over 9 years since the third installment was released and failed miserably at the box office- ending its domestic run with just $39.3 mil, which was less than half of what both its predecessors made. So why bring a franchise that has no vocal fanbase back after such a long layoff? Fucking beats me. Lionsgate must believe internally that the third one failed due to its PG-13 rating and early leak on the torrent sites and returning to its over-the-top violent R-rated roots is going to boost its grosses. I don't share this belief.

It would be one thing if the Expendables returned with a rip-roaring ensemble of blockbuster action movie heavyweights that had yet to appear in the franchise. But since they've already burned through nearly every living 80's/90's action movie titan in the first three installments and a combination of salary issues, lack of interest and/or scheduling conflicts kept the likes of Dwayne Johnson, Tom Cruise, Keanu Reeves, Charlize Theron and Gerard Butler from appearing, they had to settle for a couple of South Asian martial arts icons (Tony Jaa, Iko Uwais) that probably aren't known to most Americans and deeply confusing hodgepodgs of recognizable faces ( 50 Cent, Megan Fox, Andy Garcia) who aren't even remotely synonymous with the genre to join sole returning original franchise members Jason Statham, Sylvester Stallone, Dolph Lundgren and Randy Couture for their fourth global killing spree.

Far more concerning than the assembled cast is the creatives who were brought in behind the camera. Scott Waugh, who was behind such titles as Act of Valor, 6 Below: Miracle on the Mountain and Hidden Strike-which was recently liberated from its digital prison a mere 5 years after filming wrapped- is directing and a trio of writers consisting of Kurt Wimmer-whose dismal resume from 2010-present makes his pre-2010 credits look magnificent and a pair of VOD-action specialists (Max Adams, Tad Daggerhart) whose resume consists of a wide array of Bruce Willis, Frank Grillo and Kellan Lutz vehicles. Did they get turned down by every other action movie creative in Hollywood or is this just a case of dumpster diving in order to ensure most of their budget is spent on Stallone's HGH and the finest soundstages and green screen technology Bulgaria has to offer?

This is all a needlessly drawn out way of saying that Expend4ables is dead in the water. It's ironic that a movie with the tagline “They'll Die When They're Dead” is something that only exists because the powers that be ignored the fact that nobody really gave if the Expendables had stayed six feet under. About the only silver lining that exists for Expend4ables in our game is that its path to the #1 spot for this weekend appears to be as simple as getting to double digits, which seems pretty attainable considering that its the biggest new wide release in town this weekend and the holdover market is the weakest its been since early-to-mid February. Anything after that should be pretty bleak barring a surprising tidal wave of positive WOM, but at least the forced retirement tour for these prolific mercenaries will have a lone triumph in it before they finally meet their true demise courtesy of the muted indifference of the American moviegoer.


Price: $7 ULT/$7 BO
Predictions: $8-15 mil OW/1-4 PTA/5-8 Top 5/low to mid 5 IMDB/ $15-30 mil total BO ($25-50 mil total BO)
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Box Office is a definite pass, but its status as the likely de facto winner this weekend and the frontrunner to finish at #5 the following week should make it a passable ULT pick.


After quite the misstep with 2020's Antebellum, QC Entertainment-best known for being one of the backers of Get Out and Us-is crossing its fingers that they can get back to their winning ways in the horror genre with It Lives Inside (Neon). The feature debut from Indian-American Bishai Dutta uses a demonic entity known as the Pishach-a flesh-eating, shape-shifting demon that consumes human souls which is part of both Hindu and Buddhist mythologies- to tell a coming-of-age story that explores the anxieties and pressures put on a young first generation American that has rejected their heritage in order to assimilate into US culture. It's mix of social commentary and supernatural horror was embraced following its premiere at South by Southwest in March, where it took home the Audience Award for the Midnighters section.

Debuting at an estimated 2,200 theaters, It Lives Inside marks the biggest ever immediate wide release for Neon and has a great chance to top Infinity Pool's $2.7 mil as the best OW in the indie studio's 7-year history. Just how high it can go is kind of a mystery as the marketing has been limited to social media and in-theater trailer plays and reviews have been mixed-to-mildly positive overall but its PG-13 rating should definitely help in its quest to overindex since teens haven't had a pure horror movie they could legally get into by themselves enter theaters since Insidious: The Red Door.
Price: $3 ULT/$2 BO
Predictions: $3-7 mil OW/0-2 PTA/0-3 Top 5/low to mid 6 IMDB/ $5-13 mil BO ($8-20 mil total BO)
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: While it won't be a slate winner, it's cheap enough in both formats to earn serious lineup consideration.


Limited Release:
Slick back your hair and break out your best oversized suit because The Talking Heads classic concert film Stop Making Sense (A24) is back on the big screen. This restored and remastered version of the 1984 cult favorite is exclusively on IMAX screens this week before it heads into traditional theaters nationwide next week. While it faces the burden of splitting screens with Barbie's special 1-week IMAX run that contains about 5 minutes of new footage and burning off some demand with its early screenings last week, it should still have enough gas in the tank to rack up a fair amount of PTA points and a few million dollars before seasons's end.
Price: $3 ULT/$2 BO
Predictions: $300-$800k OW/5-8 PTA/0 Top 5/$1-4 mil BO ($2-10 mil total BO)
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Given the fanatical fanbase of the Talking Heads, the pretty barren limited landscape and its presence on IMAX screens, it's primed to rake in at least 4 PTA points this weekend, which would make it a pretty decent pick at this juncture of the season.


Weekend Predictions:
1.Expend4ables $10 mil
2/3.A Haunting in Venice/The Nun II $7 mil
4.Barbie $5 mil
5.The Equalizer 3 $4.5 mil

-It Lives Inside $4 mil

PTA: Stop Making Sense, Dumb Money, Expend4ables, Invisible Beauty, A Haunting in Venice

Screen will be here next week to break down the final frame of the JUL-SEP season, which features a busy slate that includes Gareth Edwards' big gamble on original sci-fi coming back, the return of a 2000's horror legend and the latest big screen adventure from Nickelodeon's top group of talking police dogs.

[Buscemi2]

Dumb Money is playing in my market this week, so that theatre count may be closer to 500 theatres. If that's the case, I'm thinking a little over $1 million for the weekend.

I get the feeling Expend4bles is going to be big with the QAnon crowd that made Sound of Freedom a hit, mainly due to Stallone's connection with them. It could actually hit close to $20 million, much like the execrable Rambo: Last Blood did.

[transformers2]

I'd be shocked if it finished in the neighborhood of Last Blood. The Expendables doesn't have the legacy audience that Rambo earned, 3 barely cleared $15 mil 9 years ago and apparently its ticket pre-sale metrics are in line with Plane-which posted an OW of just over $10 mil in January.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Wide Releases:
About 2 weeks ago today during the 2023 NFL Kickoff game, I received the following text from my best friend who has never watched a ton of movies and watches even less now that he's married with a 1-year old: “Expendables 4 no way”. What a succinct, eloquent way to react to the existence of Expend4bles (Lionsgate). It's been just over 9 years since the third installment was released and failed miserably at the box office- ending its domestic run with just $39.3 mil, which was less than half of what both its predecessors made. So why bring a franchise that has no vocal fanbase back after such a long layoff? Fucking beats me. Lionsgate must believe internally that the third one failed due to its PG-13 rating and early leak on the torrent sites and returning to its over-the-top violent R-rated roots is going to boost its grosses. I don't share this belief.

It would be one thing if the Expendables returned with a rip-roaring ensemble of blockbuster action movie heavyweights that had yet to appear in the franchise. But since they've already burned through nearly every living 80's/90's action movie titan in the first three installments and a combination of salary issues, lack of interest and/or scheduling conflicts kept the likes of Dwayne Johnson, Tom Cruise, Keanu Reeves, Charlize Theron and Gerard Butler from appearing, they had to settle for a couple of South Asian martial arts icons (Tony Jaa, Iko Uwais) that probably aren't known to most Americans and deeply confusing hodgepodgs of recognizable faces ( 50 Cent, Megan Fox, Andy Garcia) who aren't even remotely synonymous with the genre to join sole returning original franchise members Jason Statham, Sylvester Stallone, Dolph Lundgren and Randy Couture for their fourth global killing spree.

Far more concerning than the assembled cast is the creatives who were brought in behind the camera. Scott Waugh, who was behind such titles as Act of Valor, 6 Below: Miracle on the Mountain and Hidden Strike-which was recently liberated from its digital prison a mere 5 years after filming wrapped- is directing and a trio of writers consisting of Kurt Wimmer-whose dismal resume from 2010-present makes his pre-2010 credits look magnificent and a pair of VOD-action specialists (Max Adams, Tad Daggerhart) whose resume consists of a wide array of Bruce Willis, Frank Grillo and Kellan Lutz vehicles. Did they get turned down by every other action movie creative in Hollywood or is this just a case of dumpster diving in order to ensure most of their budget is spent on Stallone's HGH and the finest soundstages and green screen technology Bulgaria has to offer?

This is all a needlessly drawn out way of saying that Expend4ables is dead in the water. It's ironic that a movie with the tagline “They'll Die When They're Dead” is something that only exists because the powers that be ignored the fact that nobody really gave if the Expendables had stayed six feet under. About the only silver lining that exists for Expend4ables in our game is that its path to the #1 spot for this weekend appears to be as simple as getting to double digits, which seems pretty attainable considering that its the biggest new wide release in town this weekend and the holdover market is the weakest its been since early-to-mid February. Anything after that should be pretty bleak barring a surprising tidal wave of positive WOM, but at least the forced retirement tour for these prolific mercenaries will have a lone triumph in it before they finally meet their true demise courtesy of the muted indifference of the American moviegoer.

I loved this - I laughed out loud reading, and I can't believe it's been so goddamn long since Exp3ndables.

[transformers2]

Thanks man. Glad you got a good laugh out of it.

[Buscemi2]

Early reviews of It Lives Inside are not good (49 on Metacritic). In terms of SXSW breakouts, it doesn't look like another Bottoms.

Meanwhile, Expend4bles is getting even worse reviews (31 on Metacritic) with the only rave coming from the new Rex Reed/Armond White, Mick LaSalle of the San Francisco Chronicle. I'm amazed this guy isn't a meme yet, considering his praises of the most middle-of-the-road things and pans of things everyone else likes.

[transformers2]

Expend4bles did $750k in previews last night, which puts it ahead of the $435k preview performance of Plane in January but well below the $1.3 mil that Rambo: Last Blood made on this same weekend 4 years ago.

[StarLord123]

We're indeed in the dregs of September with a glorified VOD action movie (that apparently cost $100M!) being put into theaters, at least there's The Creator next week which I do plan on seeing. October doesn't look much better unless you're a T-Swift fan.

(As far as January dumping ground movies go, Plane was surprisingly decent)

[Buscemi2]

Looks like audiences are indifferent to Expend4bles, as the Cinemascore is a franchise-worst B-.

Lionsgate better hope their Saw and Hunger Games returns do better or this company is in serious trouble.

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
The Nun II $8.4 mil
Expend4bles $8.3 mil
A Haunting in Venice $6.3 mil
The Equalizer 3 $4.7 mil
Barbie $3.2 mil
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 $3 mil
It Lives Inside $2.6 mil
Dumb Money $2.5 mil
Blue Beetle $1.8 mil
Oppenheimer/Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem $1.6 mil

-Stop Making Sense $801k

PTA:
Dumb Money $4.1k
Stop Making Sense $3k
The Nun II/Expend4bles $2.4k
A Haunting in Venice $1.9k

[Buscemi2]

The fact that The Nun II has spent three weeks in first shows you how dire things are.

[StarLord123]

They could switch once actuals come in, but Nun certainly sold more tickets due to Expend4bles having higher ticket prices with PLF screens. This is reportedly the worst box office weekend of 2023 at $51.7M, worse than Super Bowl weekend's $52.6M total. Things should pick up a bit next weekend.

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals
1.The Nun II $8.6 mil
2.Expend4bles $8 mil
3.A Haunting in Venice $6.3 mil
4.The Equalizer 3 $4.8 mil
5.Barbie $3.2 mil
6.My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 $3 mil
7.It Lives Inside $2.6 mil (new record for an immediately wide Neon release, which is a distinction that it will proudly hold until Ferrari comes out)
8.Dumb Money $2.4 mil
9.Blue Beetle $1.8 mil
10.Oppenheimer $1.6 mil

-Stop Making Sense $800,637

PTA:
1.Dumb Money $3,938
2.Stop Making Sense $3,033
3.The Nun II $2,418
4.Expend4bles $2,285
5.A Haunting in Venice $1,907

-It Live Inside $1,301

Unsurprisingly, this has topped Feb 10-12 for the title of the lowest grossing weekend of 2023. If the schedule remains mostly in tact for the final 3 months, it would be pretty stunning if any frame was able to top it.

[Buscemi2]

It Lives Inside should have never opened that wide. Reviews were pretty weak and it basically looked like the festival version of Wish Upon or some instantly forgotten 2010's teen horror film.