Screening The Releases - September 8th

[Screen203]

I apologize for not getting this up sooner - have had a busy week.

Last Week

The Equalizer franchise closed with a number quite similar to the previous two films, grossing about 35 m over the 3-day, and almost 43 m over the 4-day, for a 3-day PTA of almost 9 k, and a 4-day PTA of almost 11 k. It should be able to hold decently over the next few weeks, with little-to-no competition for its target audience and best-of-the-series reviews. In second was Barbie, spending a (seventh!) week in the top 5, dropping 32 percent to gross 10 m over the 3-day (with a 3-day PTA of 3 k) , and 13 m over the 4-day, for a total of 612 m so far. I don't really even know what else to say about this one. In third is Blue Beetle, a film doing much worse for Warner Bros., which grossed 7 m over the 3-day (dropping 41 percent, for a PTA of 2 k), and 9 m over the 4-day, for a total so far of about 59 m. While it is doing very poorly in comparison to its budget, I will say it hasn't completely collapsed the way I expected it to, seemingly boosted by positive WOM. In fourth was last week's somewhat controversial winner, Gran Turismo: Based On A True Story, dropping 62 percent from its inflated OW to gross about 7 m over the 3-day, and 9 m over the 4-day. In spite of Sony's attempt to give this positive WOM, it has only grossed 30 m so far. In fifth was Oppenheimer, grossing about 6 m over the 3-day (having a PTA of 2 k), and about 8 m over the 4-day, for a total of 310 so far. Most of last week's other openers besides Gran Turismo fared poorly as well. The Hill dropped 36 percent over the 3-day, grossing around 1 m, and 2 m over the 4-day, for a total of 5 m so far. Even though it's not performing great, I feel like it could be doing worse so far. On the other hand, Retribution absolutely collapsed, dropping 69 percent over the 3-day to gross just over 1 m, and a 4-day of 1.5 m. However, it will almost definitely be the highest grossing film for the struggling Roadside Attractions since 2019. Another studio going through a rough time, Bleecker Street, is in a similar situation as Roadside, as they will have their highest grosser since 2019, though that's not exactly a sign of success for their releases. Their film, Golda, dropped 52 percent, grossing around 800 k over the 3-day, and about 1 m over the 4-day. So far, it has grossed 3.5 m.

While most of the PTA entries have been in the Top 5, there was one exception. Bottoms had a solid expansion after its very strong limited OW, grossing 3 m over the 3-day, and almost 4 m over the 4-day. It grossed an average of 4 k over the 3-day from 715 theaters. There seems to be some room for further expansion, and it should get to 10 m at the very least, if not more. A less successful limited release was The Good Mother, which grossed 300 k in 423 theaters for a PTA under 1 k.

This Week

The Nun II



When this was first announced, I expected a pretty steep decline, based on the poor reception of the first film. Reviews for this aren't much better, and the Conjuring Universe as a whole has decreased a bit in popularity. It also has to contend with a entire month full of horror competition, including ne Saw and Exorcist films. That being said, the marketing for this one is focusing on what worked to get people in the door for the first one. The advertising has a few decent scares, and the scale seems to have increased a bit from the first. I expect it will have a solid OW, but legs will be short.

I expect an OW of 40 m, and a total of 85 m.

It will get you 5-6 PTA points, 5-10 PTA points, and a score of 6 on IMDb.

It's not the worst choice in either Box Office or Ultimate.

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3



I don't think this will repeat the (relatively-speaking) surprise success of the second film. That had a pretty poor reception, and (personally speaking) the advertising I've seen for this makes it look like a difficult sit as someone who likes formulaic rom-coms. The name brand probably still has some value, but I imagine it will only play to the most die-hard fans of the series and/or people desperate for a family comedy.

I expect an OW of 10 m, and a total of 25 m.

It will get you 0 PTA point, 4-5 Top 5 points, and a score of 6 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Rotting In the Sun



This has had good reviews so far, and is opening in a barren limited release market (Bottoms aside). I expect a solid PTA on it's OW, but less success in expansion.

I expect an OW PTA of 10 k, and under 1 m in total.

It will get you 4-6 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 8 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office, though you could do worse in Ultimate.

Top 5

The Nun II - 40 m
The Equalizer 3 - 16 m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 - 10 m
Barbie - 8 m
Blue Beetle - 5 m

PTA

The Nun II - 12 k
Rotting In The Sun - 10 k
The Equalizer 3 - 4 k
Bottoms - 3 k
Barbie - 3 k

Next Week

Join transformers for a look over A Haunting In Venice, as well as the ever-changing release strategy for Dumb Money.

[Buscemi2]

I think The Nun II does way less. The first, while popular, didn't seem to have much praise from horror fans and it's from the hack behind the third Conjuring. The trailer might have gotten notice but the Conjuring Universe as a whole seems to be in decline.

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 is DOA. Who asked for this? Also, I've seen absolutely nothing for it.

[numbersix]

I'm thinking around 30m for The Nun 2, though it's been a while since a mainstream horror (Insidious 5) so who knows. Certainly the Fandango advance sales doesn't make it loook good.

[numbersix]

The Nun 2 made $3.1 in previews. That looks like a mid 20s to low 30s opening

[StarLord123]

I won't be seeing The Nun II, I can't stand movies that are just an endless series of jump-scares and loud noises.

[Buscemi2]

Neither wide opener had a good Cinemascore. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 had a B Cinemascore, well below the second's A-. Meanwhile, The Nun II had a C+ Cinemascore, which was somehow better than the first's C.

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
The Nun II $32.6 mil
The Equalizer 3 $12.1 mil
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 $10 mil
Jawan $6.2 mil
Barbie $5.9 mil
Blue Beetle $3.8 mil
Gran Turismo $3.4 mil
Oppenheimer $3 mil
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem $2.6 mil
Bottoms $2.1 mil

PTA:
The Nun II $8.7k
The Equalizer 3 $3.1k
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 $2.7k
Barbie $1.8k
Bottoms $1.6k

No word on Rotting in the Sun yet

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.The Nun II $32.6 mil
2.The Equalizer 3 $12 mil
3.My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 $10 mil
4.Jawan $6.1 mil
5.Barbie $5.7 mil
6.Blue Beetle $3.8 mil
7.Gran Turismo $3.5 mil
8.Oppenheimer $3.1 mil
9.Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem $2.8 mil
10.Bottoms $2.1 mil

PTA:
1.The Nun II $8,746
2.The Equalizer 3 $3,027
3.My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 $2,748
4.Barbie $1,738
5.Bottoms $1,615

Rotting in the Sun didn't report