SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 9/1

[numbersix]

Firstly, apologies to all who stayed up all night waiting for my essential analysis, full of the very advice you should do the opposite of, as I totally forgot. Call it baby brain if you will.

Anywhoo, we’re finally out of the doldrums of August, and into the doldrums of September. Not only is this month a dumping ground in general, but the actors and writer striking has forced bigger films to back off, leaving only a handful of studio pics to lure people away for a 5th helping of Barbie. This weekend, a holiday weekend in the US, sees only one wide release, and only one limited in this game.




The Equalizer 3 (Sony) is not a sequel about a football team who just love to draw, but rather the third instalment of the TV adaptation movie franchise starring Denzel Washington. This time, he retires to Italy only to (wait for the shocking reveal) take on the Mafia to protect his new buddies. The Mafia are so 20th Century, but these films aren’t about progressing culture. What they essentially are are bog-standard middle-of-the-road action films, and they deliver. The first opened in the mid 30s and hit $100m, the second opened in the mid-30s and also just crossed $100m. And guess what? Just as predictable as the plot, looks like this film will also open in the mid-30s, but across the 4 days rather than the 3-day weekend. Reviews are solid, and the lack of competition across the month should make for a decent hold. So expect 30m for the 3-day, with a finish around the $80m number. These aren’t bad numbers for the game, especially if you have $19 left to spare in either game. In Ultimate it’s slightly more attractive, as you should get 12 T5 points, 5 PTA points, and an IMDB score in the 6s. A MOR deal for a MOR film.




The only other film out for the game is animated sequel Ernest & Celestene: A Trip to Gibbertia. GKIDS are releasing, and haven’t been doing that well, but perhaps theatrical isn’t their earner. IT’s coming out in 25 theatres this weekend, which doesn’t bode well for PTA. So it’s more than likely not worth your cash.


Predictions for the weekend

1. Equalizer - $30/34m
2. Barbie- $10/12m
3. Blue Beetle - $7/9m
4. Mopenheimer - $7/9m
5. Gran Turismo- $7/8m

PTA: Equalizer, Bottoms, Barbie, Scrapper, Ernest and Celene

That’s all for this weekend, tune in next time for a hopefully more punctual analysis, this time by Screen as he sets his eyes on The Nun II, My Big Fat Greek Wedding, and Rotting in the Sun

[transformers2]

The Equalizer 3 did $3.8 mil in previews yesterday

[numbersix]

That's looking good for a high 20s 3-day and mid 30s 4-day

[Buscemi2]

The Equalizer 3 got an A Cinemascore, equal to the second's score.

[transformers2]

3-day Weekend Estimates:
The Equalizer 3 $34.5 mil
Barbie $10.6 mil
Blue Beetle $7.3 mil
Gran Turismo $6.6 mil
Oppenheimer $5.5 mil
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem $4.8 mil
Bottoms/Meg 2: The Trench $3 mil
Strays $2.5 mil
Talk to Me $1.8 mil

PTA:
The Equalizer 3 $8.7k
Bottoms $4.2k
Barbie $3k
Blue Beetle $2.19k
Oppenheimer $2.17k

No word on Ernest & Celestene

[transformers2]

3-day Weekend Actuals:
1.The Equalizer 3 $34.6 mil
2.Barbie $10.2 mil
3.Blue Beetle $7.1 mil
4.Gran Turismo $6.6 mil
5.Oppenheimer $5.7 mil
6.Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem $4.7 mil
7.Bottoms $3 mil
8.Meg 2: The Trench $2.8 mil
9.Strays $2.6 mil
10.Talk to Me $1.8 mil

PTA:
1.The Equalizer 3 $8,727
2.Bottoms $4,262
3.Barbie $2,849
4.Oppenheimer $2,264
5.Blue Beetle $2,146

Ernest & Celestene didn't report.

How about all 3 Equalizer movies posting basically identical openings over a 9-year period? Bob McCall is the epitome of box office consistency.

[Buscemi2]

Denzel Washington is one of the most consistent box office draws today. You could have him star in just about anything and it does well.