Screening The Releases - August 25th

[Screen203]

Last Week

Blue Beetle turned out to be the film that beat out Barbenheimer, but it didn't save DC to say the least. It grossed 25 m over the weekend, grossing about 6 k per theater. In second was the unstoppable Barbie, dropping 38 percent to gross 21 m, for a PTA of 5 k and a total of almost 557 so far. In third, always following Barbie, was Oppenheimer, grossing almost 11 m, dropping 43 percent and grossing 3 k per theater, for a total of 285 m so far. I'm not really sure what else can be said about these two anymore as they continue to defy even the loftiest of expectations. In fourth is Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, which dropped 44 percent to gross between 8 and 9 m, grossing 2 k per theater for a total of 88 m so far. While this isn't a bad performance at all, I expected a bit more from it after the glowing reviews it has received. In fifth is the other wide opener, Strays, which grossed 8 m over the weekend, for an average of closer to 3 than 2 k per theater. This may have done a bit better in June where it was originally scheduled, but I don't think it would have been a huge hit either way.

The only really notable art-house release was the re-release of Oldboy, which has grossed about 800 k since it's Wednesday opening, for a 3-day PTA of around 2 k. Otherwise, Birth/Rebirth and Landscape With Invisible Hand both opened poorly, with grosses under 100 k and PTAs under 1 k.

This Week

Gran Turismo: Based On A True Story



This would be better off if it didn't cost so much (which seems to be the recurring theme this summer). Sony has definitely given it a very large push, with a extended trailer in front of Across The Spider-Verse and rampant advance screenings. The downside to the latter is that they pushed the release back two weeks to have the advance screenings, which I'm not sure paid off. Reviews have been rather mixed, but audiences seem to love it so far. IT almost reminds me a bit of the Disney sports films that used to come out, in that it should have long legs after an okay opening, with a lot of appeal to families.

I expect a OW of 17 m, and a final gross of 50 m.

It will get you 3-4 PTA points, 4-7 Top 5 points, and a score of 8 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Ultimate, but there are worse choices in Box Office.

Retribution



Liam Neeson's recent projects have all ended up with similar grosses; an opening of about 3 m and a total just under 10 m. This has potential to do a little bit better than that, if only because of National Cinema Day. One thing that is going against it is it's being released by Roadside Attractions, who have had a very poor track record thoughout the 2020's. That being said, they have seemed to put more marketing effort into this than usual, and it looks a little bit more interesting than the average Neeson effort.

I expect an OW of 4 m, and a total of 10 m.

It will get you 0 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Golda



This has a lot going against it. It has been delayed for what seems like years now, it is being released by Bleecker Street, and has rather mixed reviews as well. It may attract some adults due to Helen Mirren and trailer I have to imagine is showing with some prints of Oppeheimer, but I don't expect long legs for it.

I expect an opening of around 2 m, and a total of 4 m.

It will get you 1 PTA point, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 6 on IMDb.

Don't take this in Box Office or Ultimate.

The Hill



This looks very unlikely to do anything. While Dennis Quaid has had success in the past with religious films, this seems like it is essentially being dumped and Gran Turismo will take away the sports audience.

I expect an OW of 1 m, and a total of 2 m.

It will get you 0 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Bottoms



This actually seems to have more buzz surrounding it than most of this summer's comedies. While I expect it to fizzle out a bit once it gets wider, its opening should be very strong.

I expect an OW PTA of 30 k, and a gross of 3 m upon wide expansion. In total, I think it can gross 15 m.

It will get you 10 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Take it in Ultimate, and it may be worth a look in Box Office.

Scrapper



This won a prize at Sundance, but I don't see it doing particularly well. Buzz around the release seems very low, and there is a lot of competition for the same audience from Bottoms.

I expect an OW PTA of 3 k, and a total under 1 m.

It will get you 0 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Top 5

Barbie - 18 m
Gran Turismo: Based On A True Story - 17 m
Blue Beetle - 14 m
Oppenheimer - 10 m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem - 8 m

PTA

Bottoms - 30 k
Barbie - 5 k
Gran Turismo: Based On A True Story - 5 k
Oppenheimer - 3 k
Golda - 3 k

Next Week

Join six for a look at The Equalizer 3, as well as some smaller releases.

Will anyone here be participating in National Cinema Day?

[transformers2]

I'm not planning on doing National Cinema Day since I prefer to go to the movies on Saturdays when I have the option to and have a Fantasy Football Draft at night. Plus with A-List, the $4 price point doesn't really matter since I'm not paying per ticket. Should be seeing some combination of Retribution, Last Voyage of the Demeter and Strays on Saturday though.

As for Gran Turismo, the Disney sports movie from back in the comparison is pretty spot-on. It's the kind of standard issue albeit well-made heartfelt inspirational underdog story we've been seeing for decades now, which is precisely why Sony (correctly) believes it has crowdpleasing potential and screened the shit out of it the past couple weeks. No clue if their efforts going to pay off at the box office, but nobody can say they didn't try hard to push it.

[Buscemi2]

I think the influx of advance screenings could hurt Gran Turismo. Sony took two good weekends out of the film by having eight sneak preview screenings instead of one or two to build buzz. Also, critical word hasn't been good, more than likely locking out audiences that normally wouldn't see a film based loosely on Gran Turismo.

I don't think Bottoms opens that well. Shiva Baby's following while rabid, is very small, while Bottoms itself gives me real Assassination Nation vibes. In addition, there's been almost no marketing. I think it struggles to hit $10,000 PTA with almost the entire audience being those who saw the funeral version of My Big Fat Greek Wedding.

As for National Cinema Day, one of my local theatres is adding Barbie showtimes. It could very much return to first much like Top Gun did last year.

[transformers2]

Yeah, 8 previews was excessive, especially since the final 5 were all in standard formats. The risk to burn off demand for a movie is unquestionable with that kind of strategy and the approach will likely be permanently retired if Gran Turismo does indeed falter this weekend.

[numbersix]

The Thurs numbers for Gran Turismo aren't looking great. It will probably only make around $11m this weekend, plus another $3 from the previews.

[Buscemi2]

Sony's submitting Cinemascores on Friday again. Gran Turismo got an A.

Meanwhile, Retribution got a C, the worst score in some time. Lionsgate probably should have made this one a day-and-date title.

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Gran Turismo $17.3 mil
Barbie $17.1 mil
Blue Beetle $12.8 mil
Oppenheimer $9 mil
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem $6.1 mil
Meg 2: The Trench $5.1 mil
Strays $4.7 mil
Retribution $3.3 mil
The Hill $2.5 mil
Haunted Mansion $2.1 mil

-Golda $1.7 mil
-Bottoms $516k
-Scrapper $15.1k

PTA:
Bottoms $52k
Barbie $4.6k
Gran Turismo $4.5k
Scrapper $3.8k
Blue Beetle $3.3k

[StarLord123]

I was considering seeing GT: BoaTS for NCD yesterday, but decided it wasn't worth braving thru the massive crowds for. I may opt to skip it until streaming and go for The Equalizer 3 this coming weekend.

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.Gran Turismo $17.4 mil
2.Barbie $15.1 mil
3.Blue Beetle $12.2 mil
4.Oppenheimer $8.2 mil
5.Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem $7.3 mil
6.Strays $4.9 mil
7.Meg 2: The Trench $4.8 mil
8.Retribution $3.5 mil
9.The Hill $2.3 mil
10.Talk to Me $2.1 mil

-Golda $1.7 mil
-Bottoms $461,052
-Scrapper $14,061

PTA:
1.Bottoms $46,105 (10 theaters)
2.Gran Turismo $4,515
3.Barbie $4,043
4.Scrapper $3,515 (4 theaters)
5.Blue Beetle $ 3,141

-Retribution $2,011
-Golda $1,921
-The Hill $1,466