Tranny Tackles The Cinema: The Films of 8/16, 8/18

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Barbenheimer continues to be an unconquerable force at the box office.

Driven by its continued strong WOM and a near-complete lack of new competition hitting the marketplace after Sony decided to shift the release of Gran Turismo back 2 weeks to provide it with some distance from both of the current BO behemoths, Barbie easily topped the box office for the fourth straight weekend with a $33.8 mil haul. Greta Gerwig's satire sits currently sits at $526.4 mil domestically and just crossed the billion dollar mark worldwide last week, which has in it excellent position to finish as the year's highest grossing film.

As for Oppenheimer, it returned to the #2 spot after a 1-week reprieve with a healthy $18.8 mil. It could be in store for its steepest drop so far this weekend as it's set to finally concede most of its IMAX auditoriums to Blue Beetle, but it just became the ninth highest grossing R-rated film of all time domestically when it cleared the $260 million mark over the weekend, so I don't think Christopher Nolan or Universal would have anything to be upset about if that were to happen.

Rounding out the top 5 was Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, which banked $15.3 mil in its second weekend (a respectable 45% drop), Meg 2: The Trench-which tumbled down two spots after dipping 57% in its second weekend and sole new wide release The Last Voyage of the Demeter-which made Universal 0-for-2 in producing Dracula movies that made money in 2023 as it was only able to limp to a $6.5 mil debut.

On the limited front, it was probably the single most uneventful weekend we've seen since May. New releases Jules and Love Life mustered uninspiring PTA debuts between $1,000 and $2,000, Passages felt out of the top 5 after its strong NYC/LA debut last week with a not-so-great $2,092 PTA figure upon its expansion to 41 theaters and The Pod Generation didn't even end up reporting. While there's not any surefire heavyweights on the schedule , there are titles with enough prestige releasing in the next two weeks to all but ensure that that the remainder of August on the indie circuit won't match the quietness of this weekend.

Wide Releases:
2023 has been an absolutely brutal year for the DC film brand. Shazam!: Fury of the Gods got steamrolled by the formidable combo of Creed III, Scream VI and John Wick: Chapter 4 back in March and The Flash will likely go down as the single most infamous flop of 2023 after WB marketed the film with an aggression that has rarely been seen from them since David Zaslav took over and got everybody from Stephen King to Tom Cruise to publicly rave about the film despite all of the controversies surrounding star Ezra Miller and its ties to Zack Snyder's old DCU that only a few thousand dopes on the internet actually care about.

Blue Beetle (Warner Brothers) represents the next kick at the can for the embattled little brother to Marvel in the world of superhero films and fortunately for everybody involved, it has a complete clean slate with audiences. It's the first DC film since Shazam! to focus on an entire new set of characters and the story is completely removed from the broader universe (for now at least, James Gunn and director Angel Manuel Soto have said that Xolo Mariudena's Jamie Reyes/Blue Beetle will be a part of the new DCU if the film does well). The problem is that the superhero genre, particularly at DC, is in the worst place it's been in quite some time in terms of financial upside and there's a very realistic possibility that general audiences no longer care enough about these kind of movies to venture out to see something with a character they know nothing about.

The best (and likely, only) chance Blue Beetle has of breaking out is through WOM and Latino audiences showing up in droves to support the first live-action film in the genre that is led by a Latino character. If it's embraced, it'll have a real opportunity to leg out considering that the following few weeks only have Gran Turismo, The Hill, The Equalizer 3, Bottoms, The Nun 2 and My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 on the wide release schedule and with a comparatively small budget to the other recent superhero flicks ($120 mil), its threshold for success will be considerably lower. We'll find out over the weekend once audiences see it if that's even a possibility (The review embargo lifts tomorrow afternoon, but I doubt that will provide a meaningful answer either way).

Despite its modest-at-best expectations, Blue Beetle does still present the first legit threat to dethrone Barbie. It's seizing the digital IMAX screens from Oppenheimer in most places and will have at least somewhat of a presence in Dolby, 4DX, etc.-which makes it the first film to have a sizable PLF footprint since Christopher Nolan's biopic arrived on the scene last month and even as a lower-end superhero property, it could have enough juice to rake in the $25-30 mil that will be required to prevent Greta Gerwig's Big Pink Machine from topping the box office for a fifth straight weekend. Regardless of what happens, WB will be able to take yet another victory lap in a second half of the summer season where they've absolutely obliterated their competition.
Price: $20 ULT/$22 BO
Predictions: $20-35 mil OW/3-8 PTA/7-14 Top 5/mid to high 6 IMDB/$45-105 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: While there remains a remote chance that it could overindex with good WOM and a soft upcoming schedule, betting on a DC movie would be an absurd move to make in this particular game right now.


Strays (Universal) kind of feels like a “what could've been” situation at this point. When it was set to release in June, the trailer was everywhere in theaters and there was a ton of marketing during the NBA playoffs-which seemed to put in a good spot to make some noise as counterprogramming in a sea of splashy blockbusters. After it was delayed to this coming weekend, almost all of the air went of its tires. The marketing became more scarce as Universal shifted their efforts to pushing Oppenheimer and The Last Voyage of the Demeter, the cast-which includes Will Ferrell, Jamie Foxx and Isla Fisher-hasn't been able to promote for it a month now due to the SAG-AFTRA strike (Foxx's medical problems are believed to be part of the reason Universal bumped it from June at the last minute) and the appetite for R-rated studio comedies has continued to not be there this summer as No Hard Feelings proved to be the only title released so far to find an even semi-notable audience with its $50 mil domestic haul.

Could Strays still manage to do fine? Sure. A vulgar, silly taking dog comedy isn't something you need to buy tickets for weeks in advance, so there's potential for plenty of walk-up business and the awareness for it right now has to be higher than either of Lionsgate's recent BO misfires The Blackening and Joy Ride were ahead of their OW's. Still, there's no signs that this is going to be another surprise late summer comedy breakout a la Good Boys and its performance will likely serve as yet another strike against a genre that has been met with an increasing degree of indifference from audiences.
Price: $10 ULT/$10 BO
Predictions: $8-15 mil OW/0-3 PTA/1-7 Top 5/low to mid 6 IMDB/$20-50 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: There's zero reason to believe that it's going to buck the trend of R-rated doing mediocre-to-bad business this summer, so there's no reason to take a chance on it.


Limited Releases:
20 years ago, Park Chan-Wook went from South Korean cult filmmaker to a globally beloved one with a shocking, twisted revenge thriller that is impossible to shake or forget. To celebrate this huge anniversary, Neon is bringing a restored and remastered version of Oldboy to domestic theaters starting tomorrow. While cinephiles all over the country are likely to jump at the opportunity to see Chan-Wook's classic on the big screen again (or for the first time, depending on your age and where you live), it's not likely to be much of a factor in our game. It appears to be only getting a couple showings per day in a few hundred theaters and despite its legendary status in the film community, it's still a Korean film that most Americans aren't aware of-even after Spike Lee remade it 10 years ago.
Price: $3 ULT/$2 BO
Predictions: $150k-$400k OW ($600k-$1 mil 5-day)/0-1 PTA/0 Top 5/low to mid 8 IMDb/$800k-$2 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: No.


It must've been in the contract of writer/director Cory Finley and/or the producers that Landscape with Invisible Hand (MGM) received a theatrical release because it feels like exactly the kind of movie that would be relegated to the vast purgatory of a streaming library with zero promotion whatsover without that guarantee in place. The sci-fi satire focuses on a near-future where an alien race called the Vuvv have taken over Earth. Among the only ways to make money is having the Vuvv-who are fascinated by human love-pay to watch you go on dates via a livestream broadcast. Naturally, a couple of teenagers (Asantee Black, Kylie Rodgers) decide to game the system by posing as a couple to make some cash, but their plan soon backfires as they slowly begin to hate each other, but can't afford to break up as it would have dire financial consequences for them and their families.

On top of its quirky premise, the movie was met with mostly mixed reviews out of Sundance (anecdotally, it felt like the single worst reviewed film that screened at the festival) and MGM has reacted accordingly by giving it a half-assed not exactly limited, not exactly wide release which will likely end up being pretty similar to the one they gave to A Good Person back in March (530 theaters OW/687 in its second). At this rate, it would be a shock if it even made it up to $2 mil overall as there's no clear audience that is going to rush out to this see-which is admittedly somewhat hypocritical of me to say since there's a good chance that I will be doing just that since I've liked Finley's previous movies quite a bit and feel compelled to take advantage of the lone legal opportunity I'll have to see it without specifically paying to watch it.
Price: $3 ULT/$2 BO
Predictions: $125-450k OW/0-1 PTA/0 Top 5/low to mid 6 IMDb/$350k-$1.5 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Absolutely not.


On the other end of the Sundance 2023 spectrum is Mutt (Strand). This story of a trans man (Lio Mihel) who unexpectedly reunites with his immigrant father (Alejandro Goic), straight ex-boyfriend (Cole Doman) and half-sister (MiMi Ryder) that he'd lost contact with since transitioning over a single day in New York City earned a pretty strong reception out of Park City and eventually ended up being bought by Strand after sitting on the open market for a few months following its premiere. Releasing in just a single theater in a marketplace that has no guaranteed high PTA earners, Mutt has a great opportunity to take home the crown this weekend. It might've some difficulty upon expansion, but given its price point and a PTA field next weekend that appears to be similarly weak, it could prove to be worth taking a shot on.
Price: $3 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $8-15k OW/3-9 PTA/0 Top 5/low to mid 7 IMDb/$ total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Opening in a single theater gives it undeniable appeal if you have some spare $$$.


Rounding out the trio of films that debuted at Sundance 2023 releasing this week is Birth/Rebirth (IFC). This supernatural/psychological horror project about a pathologist obsessed with bringing back the dead (Marin Ireland) gets more than she bargained for when the mother (Judy Reyes) of a recently deceased 7-year old (A.J. Lister) finds out she's trying to revive her daughter made some waves at the fest with its gruesome content and feminist approach to a Frankenstein-inspired story. While it is only playing in theaters this weekend, it won't be there for long as it's set to hit Shudder shortly, which makes the odds of gaining real traction in the arthouse horror space pretty unlikely.
Price: $2 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $15-$45k OW/0-1 PTA/0 Top 5/early to mid 6/$37-$75k total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: While its status as a theatrical exclusive gives it more appeal than the typical IFC release, the extremity of its content makes it unlikely to breakout.


Weekend Predictions:
1.Blue Beetle $26 mil
2.Barbie $23 mil
3.Oppenheimer $13 mil
4.Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem $11.5 mil
5.Strays $10 mil

PTA: Mutt, Blue Beetle, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Tune in next week when somebody that isn't me breaks down a slate that includes the actual wide release of Gran Turismo, the latest addition to the “Liam Nesson needs cash to help pay the rent for his Upper East Side apartment” catalog, Dennis Quaid's return to baseball movies and a raunchy, absurdist high school comedy that features the big screen acting debut of former NFL running back Marshawn Lynch.

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I don't even think Blue Beetle clears $20 million for the weekend. Marketing's been light, the film looks like a ripoff of several other, better films, and is anyone outside of hardcore DC fans even familiar with the character? With that Barbie money, Warner Bros. should just pay the $90 million to rescue Batgirl and they'd end up with a much better result than they would here. They should have never listened to Snydercut.

Strays is DOA.

And I have to imagine Landscape with Invisible Hand had a theatrical release already planned before its disastrous response at Sundance. Otherwise, Amazon should have put this and Bottoms on Prime and put its theatrical muscle into Red One, a film that puzzlingly still doesn't have a release date even though it's finished, Amazon spent millions on the film, and it's Christmas-themed.

[StarLord123]

I'll probably give Blue Beetle a fair shake but it definitely has a "Been there, done that" feeling to it. It should at least limp past the domestic total of the Shazam! sequel due to substantially lighter competition and assuming it's a better movie than that letdown. WB has also pushed the trailer somewhat aggressively in theaters.

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Preview totals:
Blue Beetle $3.3 mil
Strays $1.1 mil

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With those previews expect mid 20s for Blue Beetle and possibly under 10 for Strays.

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It's going to be interesting to see if the weather in Southern California hurts the openers this weekend. The hurricane/tropical storm is the biggest in over 80 years in the area.

Meanwhile, both wide openers had B+ Cinemascores.

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The damage should be minimized because it's a Sunday, but it will still be felt given the massive size of the affected market.

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I can attest to this, I pushed back my plans of seeing BB to maybe mid-week as a result of the incoming storm.

This'll be officially announced on Monday, but it leaked out that Sunday the 27th will be National Cinema Day ($4 tickets up from $3), I didn't participate last year, but this time I may see Gran Turismo that day (aka GT: BoaTS)

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Weekend Estimates:
Blue Beetle $25.4 mil
Barbie $21.5 mil
Oppenheimer $10.6 mil
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem $8.4 mil
Strays $8.3 mil
Meg 2: The Trench $6.7 mil
Talk to Me $3.2 mil
Haunted Mansion $3 mil
Mission-Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One $2.7 mil
The Last Voyage of the Demeter $2.5 mil

-Oldboy: Restored and Remastered $495k ($880k 5-day)
-Landscape with Invisible Hand $94k
-birth/rebirth $48k

PTA:
Blue Beetle $6.6k
Barbie $5.4k
Oppenheimer $3.2k
Strays $2.6k
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem $2.4k



No word on Mutt yet

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Weekend Actuals:
1.Blue Beetle $25 mil
2.Barbie $21 mil
3.Oppenheimer $10.7 mil
4.Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem $8.5 mil
5.Strays $8.2 mil
6.Meg 2: The Trench $6.8 mil
7.Talk to Me $3.2 mil
8.Haunted Mansion $3 mil
9.Mission-Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One $2.7 mil
10.Sound of Freedom $2.6 mil

-Oldboy: Restored and Remastered $493,386 ($878,212 5-day)
-Landscape with Invisible Hand $96,847
-Birth/Rebirth $45,707

PTA:
1.Blue Beetle $6,466
2.Barbie $5,253
3.Oppenheimer $3,229
4.Strays $2,559
5.Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem $2,455

-Oldboy: Restored and Remastered $1,973 (250 theaters)
-Birth/Rebirth $333 (137 theaters)
-Landscape with Invisible Hand $318 (304 theaters)

Mutt didn't report and will be removed from the game.