It seems like life in plastic is still fantastic.
The Barbenheimer phenomenon continued this weekend as the former grossed a stunning 93 m, dropping just 43 percent in its second weekend for a total gross of 351 m so far. The latter film grossed almost 47 m, dropping an equal 43 percent with a total very close to 175 m so far. Haunted Mansion flopped in third, grossing 24 m. I always wondered how this would do considering I never could tell what audience it was aimed at - it looks too tame for adults and too intense for younger kids. Fourth was Sound Of Freedom, dropping 25 percent to gross about 13 m, for a total of 149 m so far. In fifth was Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One, which has had rather poor holds so far, dropping 45 percent, with a gross of about 11 m. In total, it has grossed an underwhelming 139 m so far, though it is doing much better outside of the US. Just outside the top five was Talk To Me, which opened to the second-highest 3-day ever for A24. I actually feel like there has been less hype around this than most of their other horror films, so this opening is quite impressive, and the B+ CinemaScore is a solid sign for good holds (having seen the film in question, I can't say I expected such a high score. While more of a traditional horror film than most of A24's releases, it ends on a somewhat ambiguous note that I'm surprised didn't divide audiences more. Anime film The First Slam Dunk didn't become the hit here it has outside the US, grossing only about 650 k.
On the PTA scene, things were somewhat similar. was number one here as well, grossing about 21 k per theater. In second was Kokomo City, grossing about 16 k in one theater. WOM is very strong for this, so it should expand well. Third was Oppenheimer, grossing about 13 k per theater, with the help of IMAX screens. Fourth was Haunted Mansion, which grossed around 6 k per theater. In fifth was The Beasts, which grossed 5 k from one theater.
This Week
August 2nd
Note: Wednesday numbers for Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem have already been released. It grossed 10.2 m, which I believe includes the preview showings on Tuesday, but not the Early Access showings over the weekend prior.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
This seems likely to somewhat overperform expectations. Reviews have been very strong so far, and it has had a pretty widespread marketing campaign, including a Barbie-themed trailer shown before that movie. This franchise also has a history of overperforming expectations, with the 2014 film being a big surprise hit that summer (though the sequel couldn't keep that momentum going). Arguably the largest factor in its favor is its release date. Besides Blue Beetle and Gran Turismo (both of which seem likely to underperform at best), there are no movies aimed at families besides the very young-skewing Paw Patrol (The Creator and Dune: Part Two are likely both rated PG-13, but I can't see them drawing younger audiences much) until The Marvels in November. I'm not really sure why studios do this, as it leads one movie to completely run the tables for months on end. But it is a good sign for this film.
I expect a 3-day OW of 35 m, and a 5-day OW of 55 m. In total, I expect a final gross of 170 m.
It will get you 2-4 PTA points, 12-17 Top 5 points, and a score of 8 on IMDb.
Take this in both Box Office and Ultimate.
August 4th
Meg 2: The Trench
As the release of this approaches, it seems more and more like the first film was a lightning in a bottle success. I believe the first Meg had an advantage by being the first big-budget shark movie in a very long time (excluding The Shallows and 47 Meters Down, which IMO were more sold on being survival-based thrillers than creature features and had much smaller budgets/scales). The marketing for this one hasn't done much to raise the stakes or make it look much different from the first in a summer where audiences have been rejecting sequels that aren't doing anything to stand out, and the first film wasn't that well-received to begin with. That being said, the first film was a surprise hit in-of-itself, so there could still be something here. Though it currently has a 0 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, so who knows?
I expect an OW of 22 m, and a total of 60 m.
It will get you 0 PTA point, 2-3 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.
While there are worse choices, I wouldn't recommend taking it in Box Office. Don't take it in Ultimate.
Shortcomings
This had a solid reception at Sundance, but Sony Pictures Classics has done very little to raise awareness of the directorial debut of Randall Park. Additionally, it seems as though it will be getting a release in about 300 theaters, which severely limits any chances at getting into the PTA top 5.
I expect an opening of around 500 k, and a total of 1 m.
It will get you 0 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.
Don't take this in Box Office or Ultimate.
Dreamin' Wild
At some places, this seems to be showing only once or twice per day. It is having a release by Roadside Attractions. Regardless of the film's quality, these two signs alone are massive red flags.
I'm not sure that this will even report. If it does, I expect an OW of 200 k, and a total under 1 m.
It will get you 0 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.
Don't take this in Box Office or Ultimate.
Passages
The latest film from Ira Sachs, the decision by the MPA to give this a NC-!7 rating after its well-received Sundance showing has caused some controversy (Mubi, the film's distributor, has decided to release it unrated), which may affect its wider play. This, however, may actually prove to be a plus for taking this in the game, as less theaters willing to show it could equal a consistent PTA player if interest is high enough. In addition, the moving of Problemista leads this to be arguably the most high-profile limited release (besides the wild card Gran Turismo) until Bottoms on the 25th.
I expect an opening PTA of 25 k, and a total gross around 1 m.
It will get you 10-17 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.
Take it in Ultimate, though probably pass it up unless you need a last-minute slate filler in Box Office.
What Comes Around
Reception for this is rather mixed. Beyond that, IFC seems to be giving it a relatively wide release, which doesn't seem like a great sign for a film I had never heard of before now.
I expect an OW of 100 k, and a total under 1 m.
It will get you 0 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.
Don't take this in Box Office or Ultimate.
Top 5
Barbie - 65 m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem - 35 m over the 3-day, and 55 m over the 5-day.
Oppenheimer - 33 m
Meg 2: The Trench - 22 m
Haunted Mansion - 12 m
PTA
Passages
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Kokomo City
Next Week
Join six for a look at The Last Voyage Of The Demeter, as well as (maybe) Gran Turismo and a few limited releases.
