SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/28

[numbersix]

Well done, Hollywood, you did it. After half a decade of trying, you finally managed to make studio films feel relevant again, thanks coincidentally and entirely to a grass roots online marketing movement which found the juxtaposition of a primarily pink film and Nolan’s doom-laden drama ironic and hilarious. Yes, we’re all aware of Barbenheimer, but it worked, and across the globe seats were selling out as people dressed for one of them, if not both. Barbie earned over $300m globally in its first weekend alone, while Oppenheimer exceeded expectations by earning over $180m. Even with steep drops this weekend (though I’m still seeing queues and sell-outs) these films are bonafide hits. And hell, even the Trump fans had something to marvel at, as Qanon-worshipping Sound of Freedom continued its unexpected run, making $124m to date and holding well. This week sees two new wide releases, but can they hit the heights of last week? Only if the marketing teams can work together to try to make Haunted Me, or Talk to Mansion, a thing.





Haunted Mansion (Disney) is the second attempt to adapt the profound IP that is the theme park attraction. Justin Simien of Dear White People is helming this one, a story of a family who unknowingly buy a haunted house, only to find it hire a team of “hilariously” inept ghost hunters. While the 2003 version was aimed squarely at kids, it’s not quite clear who this is for. Tweens? Adults who are fans of lead actor Lakeith Stanfield’s dry sense of humour? This something-for-everyone looks like a nothing-for-all. Perhaps in a quieter month this might have worked, but with the turtles coming back next week, and more adult fun with The Meg 2 and Gran Turismo also out in August, this ghost movie is busted. Expect an opening in the low 20s at best, and if lucky it scares up $60m. A point of two of PTA, and a low 6 IMDB score spells doom. For $19 in Ult and $23 in BO, let the power of sense compel you to avoid.





Again, in another week, a film like Talk to Me (A24) might have worked. Despite having no known cast, it’s a branded A24 horror film, which for the most part have worked wonders for the indie studio. Add the great festival buzz since Sundance and the glowing reviews, and this Australian story of a cursed hand which grants what you wish, but at a price, could have been the sort of sleeper hit Hereditary and The Witch were. But with the attention still on last week’s duo, this may flounder. An opening below $10m is likely, and a cume under $30m. That means maybe 1 T5 point, 1-2 PTA points, and an IMDB score in the 7s. That’s hard to conjure up $7 for Ultimate and $6 in BO.





The First Slam Dunk (GKIDS) may sound like a basketball doc, but it’s actually an animation about a teenager who challenges his rival high-school team to a game of ball. While this doesn’t sound particularly distinct, the film certainly made a splash (a bounce?) out East, where its ranked the 5th biggest anime of all time. That said, GKIDS haven’t been doing all that well as of late, with Belle being their last hit which only reached an ugly $4m. Expect this to do the same, making it a miss rather than a 3-pointer.




What is a documentary is Kokomo City (Magnolia) about a group of black transgender sex workers. I don’t need to write anymore to show that it’s niche, but does have appeal. The doc won awards in Berlin and Sundance, and the reviews are generally positive. Magnolia tends to spell death for Ultimate, but apparently this film is coming out in a single theatre in NY this weekend, so it could do incredible numbers, just for one week only. Potentially worth the $2 punt.




Finally, one of my favourite films of the last year hits the US. The Beasts (Greenwich) is a French/Spanish psychological drama about a man who returns to his farming village to restore it, much to the annoyance of his neighbour who wants to sell and escape his hard life. Opening in Cannes 2022, it performed extremely well in Europe but fell under the English-language radar a little. Reviews are strong, and it’s out in 2 theatres this weekend (and another 20 next), so it could nab a few PTA points, but doesn’t feel like an event the way Kokomo City does.



Predictions for the Weekend

1. Barbieheim - $70m
2. Oppenie- $37m
3. Haunted Movie Studio - $20m
4. Lies of Freedom - $14m
5. Reckoned Dead - $11m

PTA: Kokomo City, Barbie, Oppie, The Beasts, Haunted Mansion


Next weekend Screen takes on a plethora of releases, from the next Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and The Meg 2, to smaller releases Dreamin Wild, Shortcomings, Passages, and What Comes Around.

[transformers2]

If I end up seeing Haunted Mansion and Talk to Me back-to-back this weekend, I now feel obligated to refer to it as Talk to Mansion. Thanks six.

Honestly, I think both Barbie and Oppenheimer have a chance to hold great this weekend. Yesterday's numbers were eye-popping for a Monday and as you mentioned in last weekend's thread, a lot of people got shut out of screenings of both films because of how high the demand was (especially for Oppenheimer's IMAX, 70mm IMAX and standard 70mm showings) and will likely try and give it another go this weekend.

[Buscemi2]

Barbie was very frontloaded on Friday (I thought $200 million was in play after Friday's numbers arrived) so a drop over 60% is possible. Oppenheimer could drop over 55% even though it seemed to hold a bit better.

As for Haunted Mansion, I don't see it taking off. The property failed to take off once before and I'm sure the vocal minority of Disney haters are already digging their dirty knives and forks into it. You'd think they'd shut up after they got their movie Disney decided not to release.

[transformers2]

Preview totals:
Haunted Mansion $3.1 mil (includes Dolby previews from Wednesday)
Talk to Me $1.2 mil (includes Wednesday previews)

[numbersix]

Those are better numbers than predicted with the two openers. Haunted Mansion should make mid 20s and Talk to Me should make $10m.

Wonder if it's part of the Barbenheimer effect, where people go to other films because Barbie and Oppenheimer have sold out. Just like in the old days.

[Buscemi2]

Haunted Mansion ads have been all over TV, sometimes in the same commercial breaks as Barbenheimer.

As for Talk to Me, it's the first serious, non-sequel horror film getting a wide release in a while, suggesting more interest that usual. And it's A24.

Meanwhile, both films got a B+ Cinemascore. Solid for both films.

[transformers2]

Wonder if it's part of the Barbenheimer effect, where people go to other films because Barbie and Oppenheimer have sold out. Just like in the old days.

That definitely seems to be the case since most titles on the marquee are overindexing.

Honestly, today felt even busier in these parts than last Saturday with the pair of new releases entering the fray and TMNT sneaks being held this afternoon. It's been a good long while since I've seen this level of foot traffic and buzz in a theater. I'll cherish these times in mid-September when it's a fucking ghost town.

[Screen203]

Wonder if it's part of the Barbenheimer effect, where people go to other films because Barbie and Oppenheimer have sold out. Just like in the old days.

That definitely seems to be the case since most titles on the marquee are overindexing.

Honestly, today felt even busier in these parts than last Saturday with the pair of new releases entering the fray and TMNT sneaks being held this afternoon. It's been a good long while since I've seen this level of foot traffic and buzz in a theater. I'll cherish these times in mid-September when it's a fucking ghost town.

I haven't done my Theater Camp To Me double-feature yet, and probably won't see the former until next week (and it won't be a double feature anymore), so I can't speak for theaters now, but last week was the most full I've seen the theater I usually attend quite possibly ever. I haven't seen that many people there since 2016! I wouldn't say it's the most crowded I've ever seen a theater (that was probably the opening night of The Force Awakens, at a theater I try not to attend anymore due to it's declining conditions - I think the last film I saw there was Tar, which wasn't exactly a blockbuster ), but it's the most full I've seen one since National Cinema Day (which I also saw at the other theater I mentioned earlier).

In other news, a B+ CinemaScore for Talk To Me seems very impressive.

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Barbie $93 mil
Oppenheimer $46.2 mil
Haunted Mansion $24.2 mil
Sound of Freedom $12.4 mil
Mission Impossible-Dead Reckoning: Part One $10.7 mil
Talk to Me $10 mil
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny $4 mil
Elemental $3.4 mil
Insidious: The Red Door $3.1 mil
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $1.4 mil

-The First Slam Dunk $625.6k
-Kokomo City $16.6k
-The Beasts $5k

PTA:
Barbie $21.4k
Kokomo City $16.6k
Oppenheimer $12.7k
Haunted Mansion $6.5k
The Beasts $5k

[StarLord123]

It seems that Disney more or less sent Haunted Mansion out to die, shame because I think the movie was better than expected. It would've been an insane box office bloodbath if Disney had put out The Marvels on 7/28 like they were supposed to.

Mission: Impossible falling off a cliff really is unfortunate. If they had the movie ready for its previous release date of last September, it could've done great considering the drought of movies then. It had no business opening right before Barbenheimer, they were inevitably going to lose IMAX and most premium screens (which Cruise threw a fit over, but that didn't do much, it should've been moved ultimately). Sound of Freedom coming out of nowhere made matters even worse for M:I, but unlike Barbenheimer nobody could've predicted that. 15/70mm IMAX showings of Oppenheimer have been basically sold out nonstop near me, I was fairly lucky to get the seats that I did for last Tuesday.

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.Barbie $93 mil
2.Oppenheimer $46.7 mil
3.Haunted Mansion $24.1 mil
4.Sound of Freedom $12.8 mil
5.Mission-Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One $10.6 mil
6.Talk to Me $10.4 mil
7.Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny $4 mil
8.Elemental $3.5 mil
9.Insidious: The Red Door $3.2 mil
10.Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

-The First Slam Dunk $645,086
-Kokomo City $15,585
-The Beasts $5,000

PTA:
1.Barbie $21,446
2.Kokomo City $15,585
3.Oppenheimer $12,806
4.Haunted Mansion $6,439
5.The Beasts $5,000

-Talk to Me $4,458
-The First Slam Dunk $1,110 (581 theaters)