Screening The Releases - July 21st

[Screen203]

Last Week

The latest impossible mission for Tom Cruise - get out of the 50-60 3-day openings trend for Mission: Impossible films. Dead Reckoning - Part One opened to about 55 m over the 3-day, and a total of 78 m over the 5-day. While not a bad opening in a vacuum, it carries a very large budget and will face heavy competition this weekend. With the reviews it has received and Cruise coming off of Top Gun: Maverick, I personally expected a little bit more, but it's not a bad opening. In second, Sound Of Freedom increased almost 40 percent to gross 27 m over the weekend. So far, it has grossed 85 m. In third place, last weekend's winner Insidious: The Red Door had a heavy drop in line with previous entries in the series, dropping 61 percent to gross 13 m. So far, it has grossed 58 m, and it will be a bit of a nail-biter as to whether it can become the top grossing in the series (un-adjusted for ticket price inflation), grossing over the 83 m of the second film released almost a decade ago. One film that will definitely not be the highest grossing in its series is Indiana Jones And The Dial Of Destiny. Though it had an okay hold last week, it couldn't take the competition from Mission: Impossible and dropped 55 percent to gross 12 m, for a total so far of 145 m. In better news for Disney, Elemental had another gravity-defying hold, dropping only 9 percent to gross 9 m. So far, it has grossed 125 m, which is a lot more than was expected after such a poor opening. Last weekend's flop Joy RIde dropped 54 percent to gross close to 3 m. So far, it has only grossed about 11 m.

More good news for Disney (Searchlight, in this case) comes from the limited release field, as Theater Camp opened to 300 k, grossing 50 k per theater at 6 locations. While this is a great opening (out-grossing most limited releases of the past few years), I imagine that the locations it was released in played a heavy part in that. I believe this may have less wide appeal than other comparable films like Bodies, Bodies, Bodies or Asteroid City. A good comparison for its wider release may be Marcel The Shell With Shoes On, which shared the mockumentary style, and grossed 6 m in the end. The film with the second highest PTA this weekend was Mission: Impossible, grossing about 13 k. Besides Theater Camp, Lakota Nation Vs. United States also did decently, grossing about 9 k at one theater. In fourth, Sound Of Freedom grossed 8 k per theater. To round out the PTA field, Insidious: The Red Door grossed 4 k per theater.

Besides Theater Camp and Lakota Nation Vs. United States, the limited release openers fared very poorly. The Miracle Club grossed about 700 k in a similar amount of theaters, having a PTA just under 1 k. Anime film Psycho-Pass: Providence did even worse, grossing about 200 k at over 400 theaters. Final Cut and Black Ice also had bad openings, with the former grossing under 10 k in 18 theaters, and the latter grossing about 30 k in about 150 theaters.

This Week

Barbie



This looks like it will be absolutely massive, at least on opening weekend. In fact, it's likely going to be the biggest live-action comedy (without action elements) opening of all time, beating The Hangover Part II. Really everything has went right for it - being based on one of the most well-known toys of all time helps with awareness, the marketing has been eye-catching from the first trailer's parody of 2001 to later trailers that have shown more of the story, it (similar to Oppenheimer) has an all-star ensemble cast as well as a star-studded soundtrack, and reviews have been extremely positive so far. I really can't think of anything that could go wrong at this point.

I expect an OW of 150 m, and a total of 400 m.

It will get you 25-30 Top 5 points, 15-20 PTA points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Absolutely take this in both Box Office and Ultimate.

Oppenheimer



This is also looking at a very impressive opening. Up until about a month ago, I thought this would perform along the lines of Once Upon A Time In... Hollywood, which had a similar release date, which would have been good enough. But the hype for it has really gone into overdrive over the past few weeks, with rave reviews as well. Now, I think it could hit 60 m, though to play it safe I'm predicting lower. Either way, the numbers this is looking to do (especially against Barbie) are incredible in this day and age for a drama.

I expect an OW of 55 m, and a total of 180 m.

It will get you 15-20 Top 5 points, 15-20 PTA points, and a score of 8 on IMDb.

Take it in both Box Office and Ultimate.

Cobweb



This will be completely lost in the shuffle. It has an intriguing trailer, but it is coming from the troubled Lionsgate, and marketing otherwise has been nonexistent. Reviews haven't actually been that bad, but there does not seem to be any room for this in the marketplace at the moment.

I expect an OW of 1 m, and a total of 2 m.

It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a score of 6 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Top 5

Barbie - 150 m
Oppenheimer - 55 m
Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part One - 20 m
Sound Of Freedom - 20 m
Elemental - 7 m

PTA

Barbie - 37 k
Oppenheimer - 15 k
Theater Camp - 10 k
Sound Of Freedom - 6 k
Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part One - 5 k

Next Week

Join us next week for six's overview of Haunted Mansion and Talk To Me, as well as a few limited releases.

Until then, is anyone doing the "Barbenhiemer" double feature? I will not see them both at once, though I plan on getting around to them both this weekend.

[transformers2]

I'm not doing the double feature. I had considered it for a while, but it's just too damn much for one day-especially when one of those movies is going to be bleak as hell and most likely, deafeningly loud. I will however barring some unforeseen fuckery, be seeing them both by the end of the weekend and doing the much less trendy Barbie/Theater Camp double feature. I'm also excited to get the chance to see Oppenheimer in standard 70mm since I can't tell you the last time I saw anything on film.

[Buscemi2]

The local Film Club decided it would be a good idea to do the double feature because of a lame meme instead of picking something we wouldn't normally have an opportunity to see like it once was. Personally, I straight up do not get it. Neither film connects in any way outside of both getting positive reviews (the praise of Barbie truly shows just how bad American cinema has gotten if a two-hour toy commercial is being called the best mainstream movie of the summer).

If Michael Bay for Intellectuals didn't have such a big ego, no way Oppenheimer would be opening this weekend. It would a Christmas release playing exclusively in 70mm for the first week or two and then expands wide in January.

Related to Oppenheimer, pre-sales haven't been so hot, it seems like. I could see it opening below expectations and unless the Cinemascore is good, it could be played out after the second week.

[Screen203]

I will be seeing Oppenheimer in about an hour in (digital) IMAX - I had considered seeing it on film, but I wasn't sure it was worth the drive. I probably won't get around to Barbie until later this weekend (probably Sunday). I may be doing a Theater Camp To Me double feature next weekend though.

[Buscemi2]

I'd say see Oppenheimer on digital just to piss Nolan off and maybe encourage him to stop making the most bloated things imaginable and make another film like Memento.

On a related note, Ridley Scott needs to retire.

[numbersix]

This double feature gimmick is saving the ass of cinema, for real. This week a major UK distributor is shutting down and Bron are filing for bankruptcy. So if it takes this for 2 original films (well, kinda) to set the cinemas alight (in a non-insurance-scam way), so be it. Personally, I'm seeing Barbie tomorrow and Oppenheimer in IMAX on Wednesday.

[Buscemi2]

The future of cinema should not be dependent on memes or groups similar to Snydercut. Mainstream cinema is already homogenized enough, with the same few actors or actor styles in every movie, the same stories done over and over, themes that only appeal to the executives themselves, style that is overly dim and empty, and letting computers come up with the scripts. Also, every major studio movie gets positive reviews now, so you can't tell what's actually good anymore and what had their reviews bought off in an attempt to get the reviewer's name in the ads. Before long, we're going to get movies based on Bored Ape that are designed to get people to buy glorified GIF's or a Minions spinoff where they talk about their love of QAnon for the entire duration.

I'd rather see cinema die than just see the latest "let's see what the vocal minority of the Internet wants" project. That's what's really killing cinema. At least if cinema died, we can watch actually good movies and revive it without another Fast and Furious movie.

[transformers2]

This double feature gimmick is saving the ass of cinema, for real. This week a major UK distributor is shutting down and Bron are filing for bankruptcy. So if it takes this for 2 original films (well, kinda) to set the cinemas alight (in a non-insurance-scam way), so be it. Personally, I'm seeing Barbie tomorrow and Oppenheimer in IMAX on Wednesday.

Agreed. Anytime people head out to the movies these days, I'm thrilled since the industry needs all the help it can get to survive. The fact that people are so over-the-top excited to see these movies is just awesome to see.

[Buscemi2]

They would help themselves if they didn't make the same movie over and over and actually knew how to market things past "oh shit, we have a new movie opening next week but no ads!". Barbenheimer is not going to save cinema. No matter how much money they make, it's just going to be the status quo. Barbie is interchangable from Transformers or any other toy-based movie while Oppenheimer is just another Christopher Nolan movie. It's the same story told slightly differently but in our disposable culture, we just forget what we saw last week in favor of this week's new sameness.

[Chienfantome]

Barbie and Oppenheimer opened yesterday here in France, Barbie made the second best first day of 2023 in terms of entries, Oppenheimer made the 10th best first day.

As for the success of those films, I have yet to see them, but any film that is not a superhero film or a sequel that shines at the box-office makes me happy those last few years. Even if Barbie is not exactly what you'd call an original film.
And it's glorious that a film such as Oppenheimer, 3 hour long, about the scientist that made the atomic bomb, makes blockbuster numbers.

[Screen203]

I just got back from seeing Oppenheimer. The theater was very full, and despite the incidents listed in the trailer thread, most seemed to enjoy the movie. There was a solid amount of applause at the end.

I personally think it's Nolan's best since Interstellar. Hearing the Dunkirk comparisons were really concerning for me, but I didn't have many of the issues I had with that.

As a whole, while "Barbenhiemer" is unlikely to save cinema (I also think the death of theaters has been a bit overstated by some, though there are undoubtedly some major issues in the marketplace, and me being eternally over-optimistic likely doesn't help with my perception), I do believe it is a very positive sign that audiences are turning up in such large numbers for two somewhat original films.

[transformers2]

Preview totals:
Barbie $22.3 mil ($1.1 mil of which came from Wednesday's "Blowout Party" Dolby Showings)
Oppenheimer $10.5 mil

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Barbie $155 mil
Oppenheimer $80.5 mil
Sound of Freedom $20.1 mil
Mission-Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One $19.5 mil
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny $6.7 mil
Insidious: The Red Door $6.5 mil
Elemental $5.8 mil
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $2.8 mil
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts/No Hard Feelings $1.1 mil

PTA:
Barbie $36.5k
Oppenheimer $23k
Sound of Freedom $6.1k
Theater Camp $5.2k
Mission-Impossible $4.5k

No word on Cobweb yet, but Variety had a Friday number for it, so it will report

I'll run through all the milestones tomorrow once the actuals come in, but holy hell, what a remarkable weekend at the box office

[Chienfantome]

Kaboom. Damn. Amazing.
(Wait, what ? Sound of Freedom is ahead of MI7 ?!!)

[transformers2]

While its drops will almost certainly stabilize after this weekend, the loss of all of its IMAX screens and the vast majority of its other PLF's along with walking into the Barbenheimer buzzsaw doomed Mission: Impossible. Why Paramount didn't just wait until mid-August to release it is completely beyond me.