Screening The Releases - July 4th/July 7th

[Screen203]

Last Week

Indiana Jones went out with a whimper instead of a bang as The Dial Of Destiny underperformed to a pretty severe extent, grossing 60 m over the 3-day and 83 m over the 5-day (actually placing second behind another film I will cover in a minute). I think that the poor reception to the previous film as well as its own mediocre reviews are the leading factors behind these numbers. Disney's own Elemental was in second, grossing 12 m over the 3-day and almost 18 m over the 5-day, dropping 34 percent as it continues to save a bit of face after its rough opening. So far, it has grossed 95 m, and should cross the century mark over the upcoming weekend. In third, Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse also grossed 12 m over the 3-day (dropping 37 percent), and about 18 m over the 5-day, for a total so far of 346 m. In fourth, No Hard Feelings, dropping 48 percent, grossed almost 8 m over the 3-day, and 10 m over the 5-day, for a total so far of 33 m. While not the savior of raunchy comedy in theaters some had claimed it could be, it is doing solidly so far. In fifth, Transformers: Rise Of The Beasts has a solid hold, dropping 37 percent, and grossing 7 m over the 3-day, and 9 m over the 5-day. Outside the Top 5, Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken grossed just about 6 m over the 3-day, and about 8 m over the 5-day. i believe this is the lowest opening for a DreamWorks Animation film ever, so not great to say the least. Also outside the Top 5, Asteroid City fell 53 percent, which isn't a great hold, but considering the mixed WOM even among Wes Anderson's fanbase, it could have been worse. It grossed 4 m over the 3-day, and 6 m over the 5-day. Also of note is Past Lives, which expanded into almost 1,000 theaters and grossed about 2 m over the 5-day.

On the PTA side (Note: all PTAs listed are for the 3-day - not sure if the 5-day PTAs count in the game), Indiana Jones was also number one in spite of its disappointing opening, grossing 13 k. In second, Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse grossed about 4 k. In third, Elemental grossed about 3 k per theater. In fourth, Transformers: Rise Of The Beasts grossed about 3 k. In fifth, No Hard Feelings grossed about 2 k.

July 4th

Sound Of Freedom



This is doing very well so far, despite me not really even knowing what it is. However, it had a not-great hold on Wednesday, and I expect it to continue to be front-loaded throughout the weekend. Supposedly, they have given a lot of tickets out for free, and I don't know how that will affect this. I could really see it doing anything from 5 m to 15 m over the 3-day, but for now I will go with the lower number.

I expect a 3-day opening of 8 m, along with a 6-day of 25 m. In total, it should make about 40 m.

It will get you 5-8 PTA points, 3-5 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

It's probably worth a look in both Box Office and Ultimate.

July 7th

Insidious: The Red Door



I feel though the Insidious franchise has been a lot more influential on the horror industry over the past decade than what was initially assumed. In fact, I would say it was the precursor to The Conjuring universe becoming as popular as it has been. Anecdotally, Insidious was THE horror movie franchise everyone knew when I was growing up (the movies all being PG-13 probably helped with this somewhat), so there definitely is an audience that grew up with these films. That being said, reviews are not good at the moment, and along with it being the alleged finale, I think it will have issues attracting new audiences. Still, it's fanbase should be enough for 30 m at least.

I expect an OW of 30 m and a total of 75 m.

It will get you 4-6 PTA points, 7-10 Top 5 points, and a score of 6 on IMDb.

Joy Ride



I don't really know what to think of this one, box office wise. While reviews are great, and I have enjoyed the trailers so far, comedies have had a rough run at the box office over the past few years, and I don't think this will do much to change that. In addition, Lionsgate has a pretty poor track record over the past few years marketing comedies (Point Grey's own Long Shot comes to mind), and I feel like marketing has been lacking. At this point, this really feels like a case of "what could have been" at the box office.

I expect an OW of 8 m, and a total of 25 m.

It will get you 3-4 PTA points, 3-5 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office, but it may be an okay option in Ultimate.

The Lesson



This is from Bleecker Street, so there's already a question as to how this will do. It's release pattern is strange as well - not limited enough for any PTA points, but not wide enough for a larger marketing campaign. While reviews are good, I can't see this doing much.

I expect an OW of under 1 m and a total of 1 m.

I expect 0 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take this in Box Office or Ultimate.

Amanda



This has gotten strong reviews, but I'm not sure how much interest there will be in it. Overall, there has been very little hype around it, though it should have an okay opening.

I expect 1 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Biosphere



I believe this is only showing at Alamo Drafthouse and Landmark locations. Reviews have been okay, but it is releasing on VOD day-and-date, so it will probably not do much in theaters.

I expect 0 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Misc.

Earth Mama was originally going to open on this date, but I believe it has been pushed back to the 14th.

Top 5

Insidious: The Red Door - 30 m
Indiana Jones And The Dial Of Destiny - 25 m
Elemental - 10 m
Sound Of Freedom - 8 m over the 3-day, and 25 m over the 5-day.
Joy Ride - 8 m

PTA

Sound Of Freedom
Insidious: The Red Door
Joy Ride
Indiana Jones And The Dial Of Destiny
Amanda

Next Week

Join transformers next week for a look over the latest Mission: Impossible, as well as Theater Camp.

[transformers2]

Earth Mama is opening tomorrow (in the Bay Area only since it was shot/takes place in Oakland, which makes it a serious threat for the PTA crown this week). IMDb has the wrong date listed.

As for the rest of the weekend, I agree with you on Insidious taking the top spot. As you said, the franchise is more popular/influential than its given credit for and that name recognition/"final" film hook along with the lack of pure horror films out right now should allow it to overperform its early-to-mid 20 mil tracking figure.

Even with the drop yesterday, Sound of Freedom could still get to $10+ mil for the weekend. This shit is playing like Avengers: Endgame for the QAnon people.

[Buscemi2]

Is 72% the biggest single day drop ever for a new movie?

Meanwhile, Sound of Freedom is playing in over 2,600 theatres. No way it wins the PTA crown with an $8 million weekend.

[transformers2]

No clue, but it's certainly the most eye-popping day-to-day decline I can remember off the top of my head. Its prospects beyond this weekend are BLEAK.

[Buscemi2]

Makes me think of The Interview but at a much larger scale. Opening night for that one was filled with Infowars types and once word of mouth spread, it ended up not living up to the controversy it caused and is now a mere footnote in Seth Rogen's career.

Sound of Freedom will be finished as a cause celebre once Mission: Impossible opens and takes the alpha male audience. It could end up splitting screens at some places by next Friday at the earliest.

[Screen203]

Speaking of Seth Rogen, I just got back from seeing Joy Ride - I really enjoyed it (and the audience I saw it with seemed to like it a lot too), but I think I may have predicted it too high. There was hardly anyone there, which I really hope is just because it burned off some demand with its early showings, but not a great sign regardless.

Had I known Sound Of Freedom was in that many theaters, I would have decreased its PTA by quite a bit. I also originally had Earth Mama getting 5 PTA points, but considering I thought it was releasing next week, I think it would have (and maybe still will) been third behind Theater Camp and Mission: Impossible.

[transformers2]

Preview totals:
Insidious: The Red Door $5 mil
Joy Ride $1.1 mil (Wednesday and Thursday showings)

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Insidious: The Red Door $32.7 mil
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny $26.5 mil
Sound of Freedom $18.2 mil
Elemental $9.6 mil
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $8 mil
Joy Ride $5.9 mil
No Hard Feelings $5.3 mil
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts $5 mil
The Little Mermaid $3.5 mil
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken $2.8 mil

-The Lesson $158k
-Biosphere $34k
-Amanda $9.5k

PTA:
Insidious: The Red Door $10.2k
Sound of Freedom $6.4 k
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny $5.8k
Amanda $4.7k
Elemental $2.8k


No word on Earth Mama yet

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.Insidious: The Red Door $33 mil
2.Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny $27.4 mil
3.Sound of Freedom $19.7 mil ($41.66 mil 6-day)
4.Elemental $10 mil (-17%!)
5.Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $8 mil
6.Joy Ride $5.8 mil
7.No Hard Feelings $5.4 mil
8.Transformers: Rise of the Beasts $5.1 mil
9.The Little Mermaid $3.7 mil
10.Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken $2.9 mil

-The Lesson $166,601
-Biosphere $33,805
-Amanda $8,963

PTA:
1.Insidious: The Red Door $10,355
2.Sound of Freedom $6,667 ($1 less would've made for the funniest possible outcome)
3.Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny $5,961
4.Amanda $4,481 (2 theaters)
5.Elemental $2,916

-Biosphere $704 (48 theaters)
-The Lesson $622 (268 theaters)

Earth Mama didn't report

Also just wanted to note, Chien and Spectre, if you're reading this and want to play this season, get your in slates ASAP if you want in on Dead Reckoning and/or Barbenheimer

[Buscemi2]

The underperformance of The Blackening and the failure of Joy Ride truly shows how Lionsgate dropped the ball on these two. Both films were festival hits that had glowing reviews but Lionsgate spent almost no money promoting them, choosing instead to super saturate the Hunger Games prequel few demanded. Had any other company released the two films, we'd be looking at the two biggest sleepers of the summer.

[Chienfantome]

Also just wanted to note, Chien and Spectre, if you're reading this and want to play this season, get your in slates ASAP if you want in on Dead Reckoning and/or Barbenheimer

Of course we're reading this !
And I will put my slates on today, yes !