Screening The Releases - June 30th

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Last Week

In spite of no movie making over 20 m (which has had a few headlines devoted to it, considering it is the middle of June), other than the complete collapse of The Flash, it actually wasn't that bad of a weekend. Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse returned to the top spot, grossing 19 m, and dropping only 30 percent from last weekend's 3-day for a total of about 317 m so far. In second, Elemental grossed 18 m, dropping a great 38 percent from last week's 3-day in its second week, for a total of 65 m so far. While I would not go as far to say that it is a success (it will likely lose a decent amount in theaters), it has undoubtedly saved some face after its very poor opening, and should continue to do so throughout the rest of the summer, as audiences seem to like it much more than critics (I wasn't really that into it, but the audience I saw it with seemed to enjoy it, with there being some applause at the end). This is probably a positive sign for Disney's next few animated films, but we will have to see. In third, we have the biggest story of the weekend, as the beleaguered Flash fell a horrible 72 percent from its already disappointing opening to gross only 15 m, and a mere total of about 88 m. In fourth, we have our first opener as No Hard Feelings very nearly beat The Flash, also grossing 15 m, which is about on par with Ticket To Paradise's opening. While this number isn't a complete knockout, for a comedy with mixed reviews I would say it's an okay number if it has decent legs. In fifth, Transformers: Rise Of The Beasts grossed almost 12 m, dropping 43 percent from the last 3-day, for a total of 123 m so far. Outside the Top 5 we see what is the biggest success story of the weekend, IMO, as Asteroid City grossed 9 m (the highest a Wes Anderson film has ever grossed in a single weekend, unadjusted for ticket-price inflation). While there has been a lot of talk around Anderson lately, this number still is way above my expectations, though I'm not sure if legs will be great (reception seems to be as mixed as his last film). It is also a win for Focus Features, who have gone through a very rough patch at the box office over the past few years. Last weekend's other wide opener, The Blackening, fell 49 percent to gross 3 m, for a total of 12 m so far.

On the PTA side, Asteroid City wins again, grossing about 5 k. In second is the number one movie at the box office, Across The Spider-Verse, also grossing 5 k. In third, No Hard Feelings grosses close to 5 k. In fourth, there is Elemental, which grossed just barely enough to be rounded up to 5 k. In fifth, we finally get to Past Lives, which grossed about 4 k in an expansion to almost 300 theaters. While it does seem to be cooling off a little bit (and competition from Wes Anderson's latest definitely doesn't help), it is still doing solid business as it expands (this weekend is the first weekend it grossed over 1 m over the 3-day).



This Week

Indiana Jones And The Dial Of Destiny



There seems to be very little in the way of hype for this. I would say the number one reason for this is the poor reception to the previous Indiana Jones film, Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull, which lost audiences with some of its more far-fetched moments. It's mediocre reviews out of Cannes don't help either, and in general there seems to be a lot of apathy towards it. It should do better than The Flash, but it won't be a hit for Disney.

I expect an OW of 60 m, and a total of 150 m.

It will get you 15-20 Top 5 points, 7-9 PTA points, and a score of 6 on IMDb.

While there are worse options, think twice before taking it in Box Office or Ultimate due to it only being in the game for one day.

Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken



This seems like it's being dumped (I can't really blame Universal, as what has been shown in the previews looks rather bad). While Elemental isn't exactly setting the box office on fire, it seems to be well-liked by audiences, and should outgross Ruby Gillman this weekend by more than double the amount. For a DreamWorks Animation film, the animation looks very cheap and the premise feels very played out by other family films. I don't see there being much of an audience at all for this.

I expect an OW of 7 m, and a total of 20 m.

It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take this in Box Office or Ultimate.

Every Body



This looks like the best film to come out this week, but it probably won't do anything that great either. Focus (just after having one of their only undoubted theatrical success in almost a year) is releasing this in about 300 theaters (I believe) which should severely cut down on its PTA and give it very little reason to expand.

I expect an OW of under 1 m, a PTA of about 2 k, and a total of 1 m.

It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Top 5

Indiana Jones And The Dial Of Destiny - 60 m
Elemental - 15 m
Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse - 15 m
No Hard Feelings - 8 m
Asteroid City - 7 m

PTA

Indiana Jones And The Dial Of Destiny - 14 k
Asteroid City - 4 k
Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse - 4 k
Elemental - 4 k
Past Lives - 3 k

Next Week

Join me again for a look over the 4th Of July frame, which includes the alleged conclusion to the Insidious franchise, Joy Ride, and Sound Of Freedom.

[transformers2]

Indiana Jones is a tough one to peg. Premiering it at Cannes was probably a mistake as nearly all of the truly bad reviews it received came out of there. The pairing of the poor reception for Kingdom of the Crystal Skull and a seeming lack of cross-generational appeal is doing some damage as well (which is puzzling as the original trilogy holds up really well* and seems like the kind of thing that would play just fine with younger generations.)

However, there are some mildly encouraging signs in the pre-sale data that it could overachieve and if the WOM is strong enough, it could have good legs. Thankfully, it's the last week of the season and is guaranteed to be a good pick regardless.

*I haven't watched Temple of Doom recently.

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After the last two weeks being filled with box office disappointments and mid to low-level titles, I'm sure Indiana Jones will open well just on name recognition and it being the first tentpole movie as summer has begun for real. It doesn't have any real competition until Mission: Impossible (the real marquee title of July, not this Barbieheimer that all of the memes are talking about).

[Chienfantome]

I'm honestly shocked by how the new Indiana Jones movie is coming up in the BO analysis up until now. Maybe Americans have forgotten about the character because of Crystal Skull misfire, but everyone around me here in France is dying to see the new Indy and the French reviews, though a few are mixed, are very largely very positive.
Anyway, I'm pretty sure Dial of Destiny will do much better than $150M. I'd be really shocked (again) if it did below $200M. It's got a 10 day corridor to itself before MI7 opening, it should be able to make $150M in that window alone.

[Buscemi2]

Presales have been quite solid in my area. Maybe it's the kind of movie that ends up doing better with walk-up sales or ticket buys as the preferred showtime gets closer.

Meanwhile, I get the feeling Ruby Gillman overperforms, seeing how much people on the Internet loved Puss in Boots: The Last Wish. Also, it's become popular to hate on Pixar and love DreamWorks again because of those vocal fans of The Last Wish.

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Preview totals:
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny $7.2 mil
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken $725k

[Buscemi2]

It wouldn't surprise me if Indy's word-of-mouth turned out to be horrible (even though people at my showing applauded at the end). Everything that audiences hated about Kingdom of the Crystal Skull is amplified in The Dial of Destiny.

[Screen203]

I don't think audiences will completely hate it - there was some applause at the end of my screening, and people seemed to be into it for the most part.

But online it will likely not have many (any?) fans - a lot of which will have to do with the final 30 minutes or so. I agree that the scenes in Syracuse will be hated by many.

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Weekend Estimates:
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny $60 mil
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $11.5 mil
Elemental $11.3 mil
No Hard Feelings $7.5 mil
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts $7 mil
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken/The Little Mermaid $5.2 mil
The Flash $5 mil
Asteroid City $3.8 mil
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3

-Every Body $145k

PTA:
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny $13k
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $3.4k
Elemental $3.1k
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts $2.4k
No Hard Feelings $2.3k

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Weekend Actuals
1.Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny $60.4 mil
2.Elemental $12.1 mil
3.Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $12 mil
4.No Hard Feelings $7.9 mil
5.Transformers: Rise of the Beasts $7.4 mil
6.Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken $5.5 mil
7.The Little Mermaid $5.4 mil
8.The Flash $5.2 mil
9.Asteroid City $4.3 mil
10.Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 $2 mil

-Every Body $150,030

PTA:
1.Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny $13,124
2.Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $3,526
3.Elemental $3,323
4.Transformers: Rise of the Beasts $2,579
5.No Hard Feelings $2,449

-Every Body $588 (255 theaters)

Final standings for the APR-JUN BO/ULT games should be up in 2-3 hours.