SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 6/9

[numbersix]

Last week proved that you should never, ever bet against the spider. Despite existing in a parallel dimension to the hugely successful live-action MCU film, the animated Spidey sequel had the second best opening of the year to date ($120m), and by this day week will have swung past its predecessors entire intake of $190m. The bad news is that he’ll be responsible for at least a handful of unnecessary Avengers films that everyone is bored of.

And speaking of boredom, let’s look at the single film that’s coming out this weekend. Strays, the talking animal comedy that some genius thought would work as an R-Rated film, has been pushed to later in the season.




Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Paramount) is the 7th entry in the film franchise started when Michael Bay forged the potent elements of nostalgia and cocaine together. The highly successful boys-with-non-sex-toys series have racked up billions worldwide, and apparently will keep going, with more spin-off films in the works. Beasts is set before the Bay series but after the prequel Bumblebee, it features the bond between some wide-eyed lad (Anthony Ramos) and his car, leading to a battle between unintelligible bots. And this one has robots who turn into animals, like Ziggy, and K9. Stephen Caple Jnr (Creed II) helms the action on this one.

So how is the franchise going? It’s no longer in its Optimus Prime, that’s for sure. The $300-400m the first few films made domestically have dwindled, with The Last Knight earning a paltry $130m in 2017, saved only by the solid figures abroad. And Bumblebee’s somewhat unique approach (a girl and her car. Andrew Tate must have blown a gasket) couldn’t fare much better with its $127m. None of this bodes well for Beasts, particularly due to its lower-profile cast.

So despite this opening without any competition, don’t expect a great return. This could indeed be the first Transformers film to take in less than $100m in the US box office. I can see a high 30s OW, and the Ultimate stats don’t look good: mid 5s in IMDB, 7 T5 points, and 5-6 PTA points. Even with a somewhat competitive $28 in Ultimate, it’s not worth the risk, and the $33 in BO can easily be spent on other viable options. These toys are broke.



Predictions for the Weekend


1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - $60m
2. Tranny’s Revenge - $37m
3. The Little Mermaid - $22m
4. Guardians of Kevin Feige’s Reputation Vol 3 - $6m
5. The Boogeyman - $5m

PTA: Past Lives, Spidey, Tranny, Little Mermaid, Guardians


Next week Tranny will tackle three wide releases, Pixar’s latest Elemental, the half-Batman film The Flash, and comedy The Blackening, alongside Wes Anderson’s latest quirkfest.

[Buscemi2]

Rise of the Beasts' reviews certainly aren't at Bumblebee's levels, that's for sure.

I'd suggest waiting for Transformers One if one wants the series to return to that entry's levels from an artistic standpoint.

[Chienfantome]

Well done, Boosch, you just wrote Transformers and artistic in the same sentence !

[Buscemi2]

Well, Bumblebee was a well-received film and Travis Knight was a two-time Oscar nominee before making it. Transformers One goes one up, being from an Oscar winner and could be more in tone with Bumblebee as said director also co-wrote the script and has the same animation background.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I know Strays got pushed due to the WGA/SAG strike, but it's funny to think that studios are so scared of the 7th (!) iteration of Transformers, that they wouldn't even dare counterprogram against it.

[Buscemi2]

My belief is that there just aren't enough movies out there that would justify an early June opening or haven't had enough marketing to make a move work. Elemental probably opens at the low end of Pixar titles, The Blackening was scheduled at the 16th to take advantage of Juneteenth, The Flash looks like the bomb of the summer, and No Hard Feelings is opening unopposed even though it looks like a dump month movie. Meanwhile, no family movie is going to want to run into Spider-Man's second weekend (also, Ruby Gillman didn't get a date until late March) while Indiana Jones doesn't need competition, though it needed better reviews.

[transformers2]

Yeah, I mostly agree with Boosh as I think it's more a case of Strays being delayed so close to its release date that the other studios didn't feel they had enough time to properly market any title that could get moved up to the 9th (No Hard Feelings seems like the only title that could've realistically moved since it has no PLF presence and an R-rated comedy was vacating the weekend, but it already has an ideal release date of its own) than being afraid to release something against Rise of the Beasts-which probably won't even up posting one of the top 3 openings of this month.

[transformers2]

Rise of the Beasts did $8.8 mil in previews (this figure includes the grosses from Wednesday night's fan screenings)

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Transformers: Rise of The Beasts $60.5 mil
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $55.4 mil
The Little Mermaid $22.8 mil
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 $7 mil
The Boogeyman $6.9 mil
Fast X $5.2 mil
The Super Mario Bros. Movie $2.1 mil
About My Father $845k
The Machine $575k
Past Lives $521k

PTA:
1.Past Lives $20k
2.Transformers: Rise of the Beasts $16.4k
3.Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $12.8k
4.The Little Mermaid $5.3k
5.Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 $2.2k

[Chienfantome]

Damn, I would have never bet on such a strong opening number for Rise of the Beasts. I will probably fall quickly but it's good for $120M at the end of the day at least.

[Buscemi2]

Transformers was very frontloaded though, losing Saturday and Sunday to Spider-Man. I'd expect a second weekend drop of well over 60%, maybe even 70%, despite the decent Cinemascore.

[numbersix]

Wow, did not (clearly) see that coming. I guess the beasts storyline did attract the fans. OR perhaps the lack of competition gave it an artificial boost. $120-150m is within its grasp, that's for sure.

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.Transformers: Rise of the Beasts $61 mil
2.Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $55.5 mil
3.The Little Mermaid $23.2 mil
4.Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 $7.22 mil
5.The Boogeyman $7.15 mil
6.Fast X $5.3 mil
7.The Super Mario Bros. Movie $2.2 mil
8.About My Father $837k
9.The Machine $577k
10.Past Lives $521k

PTA:
1.Past Lives $20,030
2.Transformers: Rise of the Beasts $16,597
3.Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $12,814
4.The Little Mermaid $5,359
5.Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 $2,277