SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 5/19

[numbersix]

It feels odd to be writing this. At least 15 years ago I was glued to my chunky Dell laptop, reading predictions from the mighty Shrykespeare, devouring information on what was going to happen at the weekend’s box office. Some things have changed for the industry, from global lockdowns to SVOD wars. Some things have remained the same – Tom Cruise hasn’t aged and I haven’t gotten any better at this game. And now, sadly, we’ve lost our centre with the passing of said mighty Shryke. But I hope to keep up this trend of inaccurate predictions in honour of the great man.

And so we go on.





Fast X (Universal) is not a sped-up version of the Ti West horror, but the 10th film in the GTA-but-only-cut-scenes franchise. Louis Leterrier (Transporter) takes the reigns, as The Rock now takes on Jason Momoa who is out to get revenge for something vehicle related. Or, to describe it to its fan base, “vroom vroom pew pew”. The franchise is undeniably massive, having earned over $6b worldwide across the various films. However, one could argue there’s a fatigue set in since Furious 7 earned $350m domestically. Spin-off Hobbs & Shaw made $173m, and Fast 9 also earned $173m – creepy for you numerologists out there. And 9 earned the lowest cinemascore since the original film. So, the logic would be that Fast X may actually earn less , despite an 11th and possible final film in the works. However, Fast 9 came out in 2021, when audiences were still hasty to go out in public spaces.

I’m feeling generous today, so I’m going to say Fast X does a little better than its predecessor, opening to $80m this weekend and ending up with around $180m across the summer. That should result in 12 T5 points, 7 PTA points, and an IMDB score in the high 5s. The pricing committee were competitive with this one, with it costing $45 in Ult and $51 in BO. However, looking at the tracking, it seems like there are better films to blow your budget on.




There’s only one other film in play this weekend, Master Gardener (Magnolia). This is the third film in Paul Schrader’s comeback, after the superb First Reformed and the clunky The Card Counter. It stars Joel Edgerton and a surprisingly un-blue Sigourney Weaver in this psychological thriller. The film opened in Venice last year, but the reviews haven’t been glowing (70% on Rotten Tomatoes), and are not enough for this to be a surprise hit. And with Magnolia releasing, expect it to come out in a few dozen screens this weekend. You may see a few PTA points this weekend, but in the long run this isn’t worth tending to.




Predictions for the Weekend

1. Fast X - $80m
2. Guardians Vol 3 - $35m
3. Super Mario Bros - $8m
4. Book Club 2 - $4m
5. Evil Dead Rise - $2.2m

PTA: Fast X, Guardians , Master Gardener, Monica, Starling Girl


Next week, a quartet of wide releases battle it out, namely The Little Mermaid, Kandahar, The Machine, and About My Father, while You Hurt My Feelings is the sole limited release. Tranny is going to give you the inside goss.

[Buscemi2]

Master Gardener is playing in my area this weekend, so it might end up being 200 or so theatres.

And had Vin Diesel not announced that Fast XI and Fast XII were in the works, Fast X would have easily cleared $100 million opening weekend. However, I still would have figured that X wouldn't be the last one as there's a post-credits scene with Dwayne Johnson, who initially wasn't going to appear in this one.

Lastly, You Hurt My Feelings looks to be at least a semi-wide opener. It might have made more sense to open limited and expand a week later, given Holofcener's past successes, but maybe A24's going for the Veep crowd with this move.

[transformers2]

First of all, Fast X was never planned to be the final installment. The movie has been framed as the beginning of the end from at least the time that they were doing press for F9 2 summers ago. As for a 3-part finale, Vin should've waited to see what kind of damage Fast X does to Universal's balance sheet before publicly teasing additional sequels that are far from guaranteed to happen.

Secondly, if you thought this was a 100+ mil opener, you must've stopped paying attention to how the Fast movies were performing at the box office after Furious 7. The arrow on this franchise has been pointing down for a while now, F9 is arguably the worst-received installment of the entire franchise and the tracking numbers haven't budged from the $60-70 mil range over the past month (which would probably explain why the Dwayne Johnson post-credits cameo was made public). Given all of these factors, I'd be pretty surprised if it was even able to get up to six's $80 mil prediction.

[Buscemi2]

Wasn't F9's negative response more because of China? Furious 7 was a once-in-a-decade movie that had the whole Paul Walker thing around it. The Fate of the Furious didn't do Furious 7 numbers but was still solid while Hobbs & Shaw did well for a spinoff.

As the Dwayne Johnson cameo was only confirmed a few days ago and insider news doesn't really reach the target audience, I have to imagine a lot of people are still convinced it's going to be the last one. The marketing has seemingly been pushing this and with Guardians of the Galaxy having been a bit of a disappointment while The Little Mermaid being a potential underperformer (not much marketing, mixed early word, and a lot of Internet backlash so far), enough people might believe that they have to see this one and not wait for Fast XII to say goodbye.

[transformers2]

I'm not sure if you're referring to the reception in China or the John Cena "country of Taiwan" incident, but no, neither of those factored into my statement about the popular opinion of F9. The most common criticism its received is from people feeling it went too far over-the-top (specifically a now-infamous sequence near the end of the film where Tyrese and Ludacris' characters enter space via a Pontiac Fiero with a rocket engine strapped to the roof to blow up a satellite capable of hacking into any computer system in the world that Charlize Theron's terrorist organization has launched into orbit). Was it hated enough that the masses are suddenly going to abandon the franchise in droves? No, but it's definitely going to take a chunk out of its box office.

And again, I have zero clue we're you're getting this belief that the mass audience believes this is the final installment from. The tagline on the 1st poster and at the end of the 1st trailer was "The End of the Road Begins" and the subsequent one they've been using is "Ride or Die". Now let's compare that to a confirmed final chapter in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3- which used phrases such as "Get Ready for One Last Ride" and "Once More with Feeling" in its marketing. Pretty stark difference between those if you ask me.

[transformers2]

Fast X made $7.5 mil from previews last night

[numbersix]

That's not a good figure, considering previews started at 2pm.

Could have an OW in the $50-60m range

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Fast X $67.5 mil
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 $32 mil
The Super Mario Bros. Movie $9.8 mil
Book Club: The Next Chapter $3 mil
Evil Dead Rise $2.4 mil
John Wick: Chapter 4/Are You There God?, It's Me Margaret $1.3 mil
Hypnotic $825k
Love Again $400k
Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves $385k

-Master Gardener $269k

PTA:
1.Fast X $16,683
2.Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 $7,186
3.The Super Mario Bros. Movie $2,768
4.Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania $1,600
5.Joyland $1,572

Sanctuary would've placed 2nd had it been in the game

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.Fast X $67 mil
2.Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 $32.4 mil
3.The Super Mario Bros. Movie $9.6 mil
4.Book Club: The Next Chapter $3 mil
5.Evil Dead Rise $2.4 mil
6.John Wick: Chapter 4 $1.34 mil
7.Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret $1.31 mil
8.Hypnotic $815k
9.Love Again $410k
10.Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves $406k

-Master Gardener $265k

PTA:
1.Fast X $16,563
2.Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 $7,282
3.The Super Mario Bros. Movie $2,711
4.Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania $2,056
5.Joyland $1,540

-Master Gardener $1,177 (225 theaters)