Screening The Releases - May 12th

[Screen203]

Last Week

The Guardians Of The Galaxy went out with a solid, though a bit dissapointing, 118 m over the weekend. Considering many of Marvel's releases over the past few years have received middling-or-worse reception, it isn't as much of a disaster as it could have been, and critical and audience reception has been very positive so far. The question now is if it will receive stronger legs than the extremely frontloaded MCU films over the past few years. In a distant second place, The Super Mario Bros. Movie had the first questionable drop of its run, dropping 55 percent to gross 18 m over the weekend. It should rebound next weekend, considering Guardians will be in its second weekend. In third, Evil Dead Rise continued to perform above expectations (though with a mediocre drop this weekend), grossing almost 6 m, dropping 52 percent in the process. In fourth, Are You There, God... didn't hold on like was hoped after its poor opening, dropping an identical 52 percent to gross 3 m. In fifth, the other opener Love Again tanked with an opening of just 2 m. Last weekend's other openers all suffered harsh drops as well.

As for PTA, Guardians was number one there too, with an average of almost 27 k. Mario mirrored its Top 5 ranking, with a PTA of almost 5 k. In third in the game, Ant-Man made a surprise reappearance with a PTA of 4 k, helped by double features at drive-ins. In fourth in the game is Evil Dead Rise, grossing about 2 k per theater. In fifth was Suzume, grossing almost 2 k per theater despite a harsh 63 percent drop from last weekend in terms of revenue.

This Week

Book Club: The Next Chapter



Strangely enough, I think a good comparison to this may be the Dog's Purpose sequel from a few years ago, in that a sequel that was always going to do less than the original sleeper hit had its potential essentially sliced in half by a similar film that filled the void faster - this seems to be struggling due to the very similar 80 For Brady opening just a few months before. In addition, I must sound like a broken record at this point, but Focus Features has had a rough past few years at the box office, and this seems like it (while making more money on its OW than most of their films over the past few years make in total) won't break that trend (I do believe that Asteroid City should break this pattern, at least temporarily).

I expect an OW of 8 m and a total of 20 m.

It will get you 3-5 Top 5 points, 1 PTA point, and a score of 5 on IMDb.

I wouldn't recommend taking it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Hypnotic



This isn't going to do much. New distributor Ketchup Entertainment seemingly has no interest in letting people know that this exists, and the reviews for it aren't great. While it has an interesting concept, and could have done decent business if it was well-received and got a decent marketing campaign, the lack of marketing and poor reviews are likely to put it in a similar realm as Ben Affleck's other underperforming thrillers over the past decade or so, such as Live By Night or Runner, Runner.

I expect an OW of 3 m, and a total of 7 m.

This will get you 0 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take this in Box Office or Ultimate.

Knights Of The Zodiac



I really don't know that much about this, but it seems unlikely to break out in any form. Sony, to say the least, hasn't put a ton of effort into marketing this, and I'm not sure how wide of a release it is getting. I wouldn't expect anything from it, but I know very little about it.

I expect an OW of 2 m, and a total of 4 m.

This will get you 0 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a score of 6 on IMDb.

Don't take this in Box Office or Ultimate.

Fool's Paradise



This has been in development for quite a long time. Now that it's finally being released, there seems to be little fanfare around it. Add to that Roadside Attractions's recent struggles, and you have a film you can pass up in spite of its cast.

I expect an OW under 1 m, and a total of 1 m.

This will get you 0 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a score of 6 on IMDb.

Don't take this in Box Office or Ultimate.

BlackBerry



Movies about tech innovations have a difficult time connecting at the box office to begin with, such as the multiple films about Steve Jobs. This has received really strong reviews, but there is very little buzz around it, and its release seems pretty limited (I was looking forward to seeing it this weekend, but its not playing at the any of the theaters I usually attend and I don't think I will make it this weekend to the ones that are - and I doubt those theaters will hold it for a second weekend). It seems like a very niche film that is unlikely to get the traction it more-than-likely deserves.

I see an OW of under 1 m, and a total of 1 m.

It will get you 1 PTA point, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take this in Box Office or Ultimate.

The Starling Girl



This is probably the limited release that will get the most traction this week, though not that much. While it got a solid reception at Sundance, it is being released Bleecker Street, who has had similar struggles to Focus and Roadside in recent years. For once, they are opening this limited instead of semi-wide, which should help it get some PTA points before fizzling out in wider release.

I see this debuting to a PTA of about 10 k, and a total of under 1 m.

It should get you 5-8 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take this in Box Office, but it's probably worth considering in Ultimate.

Monica



This has been well-reviewed, but probably won't do much in limited or wide release. IFC already has BlackBerry this weekend, and it doesn't seem like they have spent much time marketing either, in spite of the very positive reviews both have received.

I expect it will get an opening PTA under 10 k, and a total under 1 m.

It should get you 0 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take this in Box Office or Ultimate.

L'immensita



Despite starring Penelope Cruz, this is unlikely to do that much. There has been little marketing for it, despite debuting to strong reviews at Sundance. Music Box has had a rough time for longer than the other indie studios, and this probably won't move the needle.

I expect it will get an opening PTA under 10 k, and a total under 1 m.

It should get you 0 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take this in Box Office or Ultimate.

Top 5

Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3 - 60 m
The Super Mario Bros. Movie - 12 m
Book Club: The Next Chapter - 8 m
Evil Dead Rise - 4 m
Are You There, God? It's Me, Margret - 3 m

PTA

The Starling Girl
Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Joyland
BlackBerry

Next Week

Join six for a look over the latest Fast film, and the other films that dare to go up against it.

[Buscemi2]

BlackBerry looks to be a wide release. Two theatres near me are getting it.

And it looks like Fool's Paradise is wide also a theatre near me is getting it for some bizarre reason. It was filmed nearly five years ago and the reviews have been awful.

Also, I noticed some theatres are screen-splitting Hypnotic with other movies so its opening could be even lower.

[transformers2]

BlackBerry is in 449 and Fool's Paradise is in 784. On the PTA front, Monica could be a wild card as it's only in 2 theaters compared to 4 for The Starling Girl.

[Screen203]

IMO, the market for limited/semi-wide releases in general is going to continue to be very rough until Past Lives and Asteroid City open in June. The only releases I expect to even cross 1 m are Sanctuary and You Hurt My Feelings.

[Buscemi2]

I've seen absolutely nothing for Sanctuary and the ad campaign only started last month. It seems like Neon is hoping for post-theatrical success with it more than anything.

And I don't think Past Lives is going to be the big breakout you think it will be. It looks too similar to other recent romances and has little appeal outside of New York and Los Angeles.

[numbersix]

Not sure what films Past Lives seems so similar too, but its festival buzz is through the roof and it is the first major contender of the 2023-4 award season. Its ultimate performance is up for debate, but Call Me By Your Name's performance feels like a good comparison.

[Buscemi2]

Your Name and Il Mare (which was remade as The Lake House) are a couple of films that is feels similar to, albeit those were sci-fi films and Past Lives isn't. Also, we've seen the whole "old lovers reconnect and disrupt each other's current relationships" premise done so often that it's cliche at this point.

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascores:

Book Club 2: B
Hypnotic: C+

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 $60.5 mil
The Super Mario Bros. Movie $13 mil
Book Club: The Next Chapter $6.5 mil
Evil Dead Rise $3.7 mil
Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret. $2.5 mil
Hypnotic $2.4 mil
John Wick: Chapter 4 $1.9 mil
Love Again $1.6 mil
Air $768k
Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves $741k

-Knights of the Zodiac $535k
-BlackBerry $473k
-Fool's Paradise $443k
-Monica $26.5k
-The Starling Girl $25k
-L'immenstia $9k

PTA:
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 $13,595
Monica $13,250
The Starling Girl $6,184
L'immenstia $4,640
The Super Mario Bros. Movie $3,421

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 $62 mil (best 2nd weekend hold for an MCU movie since Black Panther, best 2nd weekend hold ever for an MCU sequel and the 1st MCU movie to have a sub-60% drop 2nd weekend drop since Shang-Chi)
2.The Super Mario Bros. Movie $12.6 mil
3.Book Club: The Next Chapter $6.7 mil
4.Evil Dead Rise $3.7 mil
5.Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret. $2.5 mil
6.Hypnotic $2.4 mil
7.John Wick: Chapter 4 $2.1 mil
8.Love Again $1.5 mil
9.Air $885k
10.Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves $793k

-Knights of the Zodiac $557k
-BlackBerry $492k
-Fool's Paradise $466k
-Monica $28k
-The Starling Girl $24k
-L'immenstia $9k

PTA:
1.Monica $13,938 (2 theaters)
2.Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 $13,935
3.The Starling Girl $5,961 (4 theaters)
4.L'immenstia $4,579 (2 theaters)
5.The Super Mario Bros. Movie $3,319

-Book Club: The Next Chapter $1,904
-Hypnotic $1,134
-BlackBerry $1,096 (449 theaters)
-Knights of the Zodiac $950 (586 theaters)
-Fool's Paradise $586 (794 theaters)

edit: BlackBerry numbers/theater total have been corrected

[Buscemi2]

It looks Paramount was smart in passing on the Book Club sequel to make 80 for Brady. But also, I saw almost no marketing for it. You think that a sequel to a sleeper hit would have had more pre-release awareness.