Screening The Releases - April 28th
Posted: April 27th, 2023, 6:58 pm
Last Week
The Super Mario Bros. Movie led the box office again, with a gross of almost 60 m, dropping just 35 percent from last weekend, for a huge total of 436 m so far. In second comes our first opener, Evil Dead Rise, which performed above expectations with almost 25 m over the weekend. Additionally, it seems less front-loaded than expected, and positive WOM may get it longer legs than expected. In third, there is another opener. This time, it is The Covenant, which opened to about 7 m. Not a good number for a 55 m-budgeted film, but at the very least it is better than Guy Richie's last - Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre - which grossed about what this will do in one week in total domestically. In fourth, John Wick: Chapter 4 drops just 27 percent to gross almost 6 m over the weekend. In total, it has earned almost 170 m, and will become the highest grossing in the series domestically soon. In fifth, Dungeons And Dragons: Honor Among Thieves also dropped 27 percent, grossing 5 m for a total so far of 82 m. In between last week's horror releases The Pope's Exorcist and Renfield (both of which were hit hard by Evil Dead Rise - the former dropped 62 percent to gross about 3 m over the weekend for a total of 15 m, and the latter dropped 59 percent and also grossed about 3 m, with a total so far of almost 14 m) and anime film Suzume (which dropped 68 percent to gross about 2 m, for a total so far of 8 m) was the wide expansion of Beau Is Afraid, which grossed about 3 m this week. WOM is extremely divisive, so don't expect much in the way of legs or further expansion. Outside the top 10, Chevalier opened to about 2 m, which is okay considering the nonexistent marketing campaign and multiple delays. Ray Romano's Somewhere In Queens opened to under 1 m in semi-wide release.
In terms of PTA, Mario reigned there too, with a PTA of almost 14 k. Evil Dead Rise was in second in PTA, as well, with a 7 k PTA. In third was Joyland, with around 5 k. In fourth was Other People's Children, which opened to 4 k in three theaters. (Note: Wild Life - which I do not believe is in the game - took fifth in terms of all PTAs with almost 4 k) In fifth in the game was Carmen, which opened to an underwhelming PTA of around 4 k.
This Week
Are You There, God? It's Me, Margaret
While the novel this is based on is iconic, and reviews for the adaptation have been strong so far, I don't see it doing particularly well. (Expect to see the following reason for my low prediction as a common theme this week); the one major issue the film has is that awareness it's even coming out doesn't seem that high. If it had more marketing, I believe it could have been a hit. While I do think it will have okay legs, it will probably be too late.
I see an OW of 7 m, and a total of 21 m.
It will get you 3-4 Top 5 points, 1 PTA point, and a score in the range of 7 on IMDb.
Don't take this in Box Office or Ultimate.
Big George Foreman...
Odds for this don't look great either. The marketing campaign has been very muted, and what has been shown looks confused in terms of target audience. Additionally, Air is still in the marketplace (And this is likely to get much worse reviews than that has at the moment), providing another sports drama for those potentially interested.
I see it having an OW of 5 m, and a total of 10 m.
It will get you 2 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a IMDb score in the range of 7.
Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.
Sisu
This will probably be the most successful of the releases this week, though that's not saying much. This had a decent amount of buzz when the trailer was first released, and said trailer playing before John Wick: Chapter 4 can only help its chances. That being said, Lionsgate hasn't done much since to get the word out that this is releasing this weekend. Additionally, it is only being released in about 1,000 theaters, which will hurt its chances a little bit.
I expect an OW of 4 m, and a total of 12 m.
It will get you 1 Top 5 point, 5-6 PTA points, and a score in the range of 8 on IMDb.
Don't take it in Box Office, but it's a solid choice in Ultimate.
Polite Society
This seems like it is going to completely tank at the box office, unfortunately. It received a positive reception at Sundance, but since then, Focus has done pretty much nothing to market it whatsoever (I feel like a broken record saying this about a lot of underperforming releases - especially from Focus - but it really does seem to be an issue a lot of these films face). Hopefully it finds more of an audience after its theatrical release.
I expect an OW of 1 m, and a total of 2 m.
It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a score of 6 on IMDb.
Pass on this in both Box Office and Ultimate.
Top 5
The Super Mario Bros. Movie - 40 m
Evil Dead Rise - 10 m
Are You There, God? It's Me, Margaret - 7 m
Big George Foreman... - 5 m
Sisu - 4 m
PTA
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Sisu
Joyland
Evil Dead Rise
Are You There, God? It's Me, Margaret
Next Week
Join transformers for the start of the summer box office, with a look at the prospects of Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3, as well as Love Again.
The Super Mario Bros. Movie led the box office again, with a gross of almost 60 m, dropping just 35 percent from last weekend, for a huge total of 436 m so far. In second comes our first opener, Evil Dead Rise, which performed above expectations with almost 25 m over the weekend. Additionally, it seems less front-loaded than expected, and positive WOM may get it longer legs than expected. In third, there is another opener. This time, it is The Covenant, which opened to about 7 m. Not a good number for a 55 m-budgeted film, but at the very least it is better than Guy Richie's last - Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre - which grossed about what this will do in one week in total domestically. In fourth, John Wick: Chapter 4 drops just 27 percent to gross almost 6 m over the weekend. In total, it has earned almost 170 m, and will become the highest grossing in the series domestically soon. In fifth, Dungeons And Dragons: Honor Among Thieves also dropped 27 percent, grossing 5 m for a total so far of 82 m. In between last week's horror releases The Pope's Exorcist and Renfield (both of which were hit hard by Evil Dead Rise - the former dropped 62 percent to gross about 3 m over the weekend for a total of 15 m, and the latter dropped 59 percent and also grossed about 3 m, with a total so far of almost 14 m) and anime film Suzume (which dropped 68 percent to gross about 2 m, for a total so far of 8 m) was the wide expansion of Beau Is Afraid, which grossed about 3 m this week. WOM is extremely divisive, so don't expect much in the way of legs or further expansion. Outside the top 10, Chevalier opened to about 2 m, which is okay considering the nonexistent marketing campaign and multiple delays. Ray Romano's Somewhere In Queens opened to under 1 m in semi-wide release.
In terms of PTA, Mario reigned there too, with a PTA of almost 14 k. Evil Dead Rise was in second in PTA, as well, with a 7 k PTA. In third was Joyland, with around 5 k. In fourth was Other People's Children, which opened to 4 k in three theaters. (Note: Wild Life - which I do not believe is in the game - took fifth in terms of all PTAs with almost 4 k) In fifth in the game was Carmen, which opened to an underwhelming PTA of around 4 k.
This Week
Are You There, God? It's Me, Margaret
While the novel this is based on is iconic, and reviews for the adaptation have been strong so far, I don't see it doing particularly well. (Expect to see the following reason for my low prediction as a common theme this week); the one major issue the film has is that awareness it's even coming out doesn't seem that high. If it had more marketing, I believe it could have been a hit. While I do think it will have okay legs, it will probably be too late.
I see an OW of 7 m, and a total of 21 m.
It will get you 3-4 Top 5 points, 1 PTA point, and a score in the range of 7 on IMDb.
Don't take this in Box Office or Ultimate.
Big George Foreman...
Odds for this don't look great either. The marketing campaign has been very muted, and what has been shown looks confused in terms of target audience. Additionally, Air is still in the marketplace (And this is likely to get much worse reviews than that has at the moment), providing another sports drama for those potentially interested.
I see it having an OW of 5 m, and a total of 10 m.
It will get you 2 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a IMDb score in the range of 7.
Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.
Sisu
This will probably be the most successful of the releases this week, though that's not saying much. This had a decent amount of buzz when the trailer was first released, and said trailer playing before John Wick: Chapter 4 can only help its chances. That being said, Lionsgate hasn't done much since to get the word out that this is releasing this weekend. Additionally, it is only being released in about 1,000 theaters, which will hurt its chances a little bit.
I expect an OW of 4 m, and a total of 12 m.
It will get you 1 Top 5 point, 5-6 PTA points, and a score in the range of 8 on IMDb.
Don't take it in Box Office, but it's a solid choice in Ultimate.
Polite Society
This seems like it is going to completely tank at the box office, unfortunately. It received a positive reception at Sundance, but since then, Focus has done pretty much nothing to market it whatsoever (I feel like a broken record saying this about a lot of underperforming releases - especially from Focus - but it really does seem to be an issue a lot of these films face). Hopefully it finds more of an audience after its theatrical release.
I expect an OW of 1 m, and a total of 2 m.
It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a score of 6 on IMDb.
Pass on this in both Box Office and Ultimate.
Top 5
The Super Mario Bros. Movie - 40 m
Evil Dead Rise - 10 m
Are You There, God? It's Me, Margaret - 7 m
Big George Foreman... - 5 m
Sisu - 4 m
PTA
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Sisu
Joyland
Evil Dead Rise
Are You There, God? It's Me, Margaret
Next Week
Join transformers for the start of the summer box office, with a look at the prospects of Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3, as well as Love Again.