Screening The Releases - April 21st

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

Moderators: Buscemi, BarcaRulz, Geezer, W

Post Reply
User avatar
Screen203
Clark Griswald
Posts: 1170
Joined: December 1st, 2018, 3:38 pm
Location: Mullholland Dr.

Screening The Releases - April 21st

Post by Screen203 »

Last Week

The Super Mario Bros. Movie had an incredible hold, dropping only 37 percent to gross 92 m. So far, it has grossed 353 m, with much more to come. In second, the best of a very mediocre-performing lot of releases, The Pope's Exorcist, grossed about 9 m in its first week, which isn't a great number by any means, but it was made on a low budget, so it should turn a very modest profit. In third, John Wick: Chapter 4 dropped 44 percent to gross 8 m, for a total so far of 160 m. After that comes the opener with the most hype, Renfield, which flopped with an 8 m OW against a 65 m budget. It seemed like the marketing never knew exactly what to do with this rather niche film, though it may do a bit better after theaters. In fifth, Air followed with an okay drop, losing 46 percent of its audience to gross almost 8 m, which amounts to a total so far of 33 m (which is bad considering the budget, but in comparison to the expectations this had in terms of its performance, it is a decent number). In seventh we see another opener, as anime film Suzume opened to 5 m, which seems like a fine opening. What isn't a great opening, though, is Mafia Momma in eighth place with 2 m - another underperformer for Bleeker Street, who can't seem to catch a break lately. (In tenth place, religious film Nefarious opened to about 1 m, but I don't believe it is in the game). In thirteenth place, we see our last wide opener, Sweetwater, which opened with under 1 m.

In terms of the arthouse box office/PTA scene, Beau Is Afraid opened with 320 k from 4 theaters, grossing a huge 80 k PTA (For more on this film, as well as Wild Life and Sick Of Myself, see below). (While I do not believe it is in the game, the documentary Wild Life opened to almost 50 k from 2 theaters, grossing almost 24 k. A similar case is the film Sick Of Myself - which I have a stronger, though not certain, belief is in the game - it is fourth when PTA from all titles are counted, grossing 20 k from 2 theaters, for a PTA of 10 k. I will not count either title here, just in case). In second, The Super Mario Bros. Movie grossed 21 k from about 4,400 theaters. Third is Joyland, which fell 55 percent from last weekend, but still grossed almost 10 k in 1 theater. In fourth, there is Showing Up, with a PTA of nearly 5 k from 28 theaters - this should continue to have decent expansions, but it may be out of PTA points. In fifth is The Pope's Exorcist, with a PTA of about 3 k.

This Week

Evil Dead Rise



This seems like it will do well, and perform at the level of the 2013 film, but not the recent breakout horror hits. It has very strong reviews going for it at the moment, but the marketing has felt a little bit muted in comparison to the last film's advertising blitz. What marketing there has been, though, is very effective, and positive WOM/lack of horror competition until The Boogeyman in June could lead it to have better-than-average legs for a very fan-driven franchise (I have seen the film, and there wasn't much of a reaction from the audience I saw it with, but the crowds at the theater I went to generally don't react much to the movies shown there).

I expect an 22 m OW, and a total of 55 m.

It will get you 3-4 PTA points, 4-6 Top 5 points, and a score in the range of 7 on IMDb.

It will do okay in both Box Office and Ultimate.

The Covenant



I expect this will perform pretty similar to Jake Gyllenhall's last theatrically-released action film, Ambulance, give or take a few million dollars. Either way, I don't expect huge numbers for this. Reviews haven't been awful, but it looks very different for a Guy Richie film and MGM hasn't put much in the way of marketing for it (it is also getting a smaller release in less than 3,000 theaters, which isn't always a bad sign for a movie's box office potential but it's below the amount I would have expected). With positive reviews (and appeal to an audience that rarely attends theaters), it could have some solid legs, though there are a lot of action movies being released over the next few weeks. At the very least, it should do a bit better than Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre, Guy Richie's last film.

I see an OW of 7 m, and a total of 20 m

It will gross 1-2 PTA points, get 3-4 Top 5 points, and score a score in the range of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Chevalier



This seems unlikely to do much, unfortunately. It seems like Disney/Searchlight has done very little to get the word out that it's opening this week, in spite of positive reviews. I really don't have that much more to say about this other than that it seems like it is being dumped with little reason behind that decision.

I expect an opening of 2 m, and a total of 5 m.

It will get 0 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score in the range of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Carmen



In spite of its muted reception, I think this will have an okay opening. Paul Mescal has had a meteoric rise in fame over the past few years, and Melissa Barrera has also seen a rise in her name due to the new Scream movies. While musicals have had a rough run at the box office over the past few years, this should still be able to draw a solid crowd in limited release, even if mainstream appeal is limited.

I expect an opening of about 80 k in limited release, and a total of 2 m.

It will get you 5-6 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score in the range of 6 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office, but it may be an okay choice in Ultimate if you have little-to-nothing left to spend in the game.

Somewhere In Queens



This seems like something that may have done better a decade or two ago, but is unlikely to draw much attention in theaters now. Reviews have been good, but Roadside Attractions has had a very poor track record as of late, and the marketing has been minimal since its Sundance premiere, to say the least.

I expect an opening of about 500 k in semi-wide release, and 1 m in total.

This will get 0 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a score in the range of 7 on IMDb.

Pass on this in both Box Office and Ultimate.

Other People's Children



I don't expect that much for this either. Music Box Films has had serious difficulties at the box office over the past few years, and I don't think that this will do that much to change that, in spite of positive reviews.

(I am not sure if this is opening this week, as there has been no theater count released for it, which I believe Music Box Films usually does. The following predictions are assuming it is opening tomorrow).

I expect an OW below 50 k in limited release, and a total under 1 m.

It will get you 0 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score in the range of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take this in Box Office or Ultimate.

Also Opening/Expanding This Week

Beau Is Afraid is expanding this week after its huge limited start. Despite Ari Aster, A24, and Joaquin Phoenix all having solid fan followings, it seems very niche and unlikely to gross that much in about 1,000 theaters. I expect about 3 m for it this week. While I haven't put it in the PTA list (due to it - I believe - not being in the game), Wild Life should have a very solid expansion this week. Sick Of Myself (which I believe is in the game) could be another PTA spoiler to look out for.

Top 5

The Super Mario Bros. Movie - 65 m
Evil Dead Rise - 18 m
The Covenant - 7 m
Air - 5 m
The Pope's Exorcist - 5 m

PTA

The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Carmen
Evil Dead Rise
Joyland
Beau Is Afraid


Join me next week for coverage on several releases, including the long-awaited adaptation of Are You There, God? It's Me, Margret, as well as the George Foreman biopic Big George Foreman..., as well as action films Polite Society and Sisu, both of which have positive reviews and some online buzz.
It's not destroying. It's making something new.

Image courtesy of -
https://nerdist.com/annihilation-shimmer-ending-explained/

User avatar
Chienfantome
Captain Jack Sparrow
Posts: 9967
Joined: May 29th, 2010, 4:22 am
Location: Paris, France
Contact:

Re: Screening The Releases - April 21st

Post by Chienfantome »

Even if it probably won't make much at the BO, if you have a chance to catch Other People's Children, go ahead. It was one of the very besst films I saw last year.
Fluctuat nec mergitur

User avatar
numbersix
Darth Vader
Posts: 11545
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: Screening The Releases - April 21st

Post by numbersix »

I watched it a few weeks ago and very much liked it as well!

User avatar
transformers2
John Rambo
Posts: 7731
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 5:15 pm

Re: Screening The Releases - April 21st

Post by transformers2 »

Evil Dead Rise did $2.5 mil in previews last night. $20+ mil could be in play if it's not too frontloaded.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6664
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Screening The Releases - April 21st

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascores:

The Covenant: A
Evil Dead Rise: B
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
transformers2
John Rambo
Posts: 7731
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 5:15 pm

Re: Screening The Releases - April 21st

Post by transformers2 »

The Covenant could've been at least a modest hit if Amazon had put some real marketing juice behind it. Aside from the action/military stuff-which is gripping and regularly quite tense, the relationship between Jake Gyllenhaal and Dar Salim's characters is surprisingly powerful despite the simplicity of the story.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!

User avatar
Screen203
Clark Griswald
Posts: 1170
Joined: December 1st, 2018, 3:38 pm
Location: Mullholland Dr.

Re: Screening The Releases - April 21st

Post by Screen203 »

transformers2 wrote:
April 22nd, 2023, 5:02 pm
The Covenant could've been at least a modest hit if Amazon had put some real marketing juice behind it. Aside from the action/military stuff-which is gripping and regularly quite tense, the relationship between Jake Gyllenhaal and Dar Salim's characters is surprisingly powerful despite the simplicity of the story.
I haven't seen The Covenant, but Wrath Of Man was surprisingly really good.

One film last year that should have received a lot more attention was Breaking. I'm not sure how much better it would have done, but I don't think it would have performed as poorly as it did if it had more of a marketing campaign.
It's not destroying. It's making something new.

Image courtesy of -
https://nerdist.com/annihilation-shimmer-ending-explained/

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6664
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Screening The Releases - April 21st

Post by Buscemi2 »

Breaking was a forgettable film with not very good reviews. Nothing would have helped it improve its box office.

As for The Covenant, it had the issue of being a film picked up for distribution. As MGM didn't produce it, there weren't going to push it the way they did with No Time to Die or Air (the latter was actually produced by MGM's parent company but still).
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
transformers2
John Rambo
Posts: 7731
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 5:15 pm

Re: Screening The Releases - April 21st

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Estimates:
The Super Mario Bros. Movie $58.2 mil
Evil Dead Rise $23.5 mil
The Covenant $6.3 mil
John Wick: Chapter 4 $5.8 mil
Air $5.5 mil (Deadline and The Numbers have this figure while BOM's is at $4.9 mil)
Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves $5.4 mil
The Pope's Exorcist $3.3 mil
Renfield $3.1 mil
Beau is Afraid $2.8 mil
Suzume $1.6 mil

-Chevalier $1.5 mil
-Somewhere in Queens $682k

PTA:
The Super Mario Bros. Movie $13,386
Evil Dead Rise $6,907
Other People's Children $4,937
Joyland $4,913
Carmen $4,279
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!

User avatar
transformers2
John Rambo
Posts: 7731
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 5:15 pm

Re: Screening The Releases - April 21st

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Actuals:
1.The Super Mario Bros. Movie $59.9 mil
2.Evil Dead Rise $24.5 mil
3.The Covenant $6.4 mil
4.John Wick: Chapter 4 $5.8 mil
5.Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves $5.5 mil
6.Air $5.4 mil
7.The Pope's Exorcist $3.4 mil
8.Renfield $3.2 mil
9.Beau is Afraid $2.8 mil
10.Suzume $1.6 mil

-Chevalier $1.5 mil
-Somewhere in Queens $671k
-Other People's Children $13k
-Carmen $11k

PTA:
1.The Super Mario Bros. Movie $13,777
2.Evil Dead Rise $7,202
3.Joyland $4,788 (8 theaters)
4.Other People's Children $4,188 (3 theaters)
5.Carmen $3,610 (3 theaters)

-Beau is Afraid $2,929
-The Covenant $2,443
-Chevalier $1,193
-Somewhere in Queens $1,115 (602 theaters)
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!

Post Reply