SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 4/5-7

[numbersix]

Spring has sprung, and not only are the flora and fauna emerging out of their primordial pools of existence, but so is the box office. With a slow start to Jan and Feb, we’re now facing surprise after surprise, with the latest being the Dungeons and Dragons film not just appealing to wet-legged virgins, but to a much wider audience (I do hope Stranger Things is getting a cut of the profits). Opening to $38m, this could be a new franchise, and anything that isn’t MCU or DCU is welcome in my books, including Mr Wick whose 4th film has nabbed almost $250m worldwide. And, if you even dared to think things will calm down in April, think again, porca troia.




Mamma Mia! That’s what my friend’s 4 year-old niece exclaimed at news of The Super Mario Bros Movie (Universal), over and over again. After the utter failure of the live-action attempt 30 years ago, Mario has been given an extra life, but this time in animated form. Presumably, he’ll be stomping heads before taking on Bowser to rescue Princess Peach, with the deeply Italian Chris Pratt voicing Mario, alongside Anya Taylor-Joy, Jack Black, and Charlie Day.

The curse of video game adaptations has long gone. The Hitmans and Dooms have now turned into the Uncharteds and Sonic the Hedgehogs. The latter is the best comparable, being SEGA’s (remember them? If so, eat a toffee, gramps) answer to Mario, which opened to $58m with a $148 cume in the US, and a sequel that fared higher. And now Mario is set to do bigger, with tracking rising faster than an Italian after munching on a moving mushroom. In fact, with very little out there for kids, expect Mario to dominate the Spring season. A $100m 3-day over the holidays and $120m 5-day (it comes out tomorrow) is on the cards, and it could hit 300m gold coins before the summer sucks the life out of it. Despite the hefty prices of $48 and $49 in the game, I would make this a priority, considering MCU and the Fast films are both starting to falter. And in Ultimate you’ll get about 18 T5 points, a high 6 IMDB score, and 8-10 PTA points. It’s a bargain.




Counter-programming comes in the form of Air: Courting a Legend (Warner Bros), the reunion of Matt Damon and Ben Affleck, as actors at least. This is the story of Nike’s resurrection in the 1980s, by taking a risk by making upcoming basketball champ Micheal Jordan their main endorser. While this may not sound exactly riveting, the script is breezy and fun, and the cast is rounded off with the likes of Viola Davis, Chris Tucker, and Jason Bateman. Opening against Mario is a risk, but it should get the attention of an older audience who can remember those days of hairspray and shoulderpads. Expect a $10m 3-day, 13m 5-day, finishing in the low 30s, but not earning much in terms of T5 or PTA points. Sadly, it costs $8 in both games, so just don’t do it.


On the limited side, for the first time this year, there are some really competitive choices. Here’s a rundown of what each is.




Paint (IFC) looks like the most high-profile film. It’s a broad comedy starring Owen Wilson as a fictional version of Bob Ross, who clashes with an upstart TV painter. 20 years ago and this would have been a major studio release, but instead this is coming out on a limited basis with no advance reviews or festival buzz.





Showing Up (A24) is the latest film by gentle auteur Kelly Reichardt. Here, a sculptor must find a way to juggle her daily life with the excitement of an upcoming art exhibition. It features Michelle Williams, Andre Benjamin, and Hong Chau, but the real star here is A24, who scooped up a bunch of Oscars thanks to Everything Everywhere All at Once. Reichardt’s films tend to do well on the PTA front, although this film has lost buzz since its festival run since Cannes last May and A24 are focusing on Beau is Afraid.




The brilliantly titled How to Blow Up A Pipeline (Neon) is an adaptation of a book about a group of idealists committing a crime for environmentalist reasons. It opened in Toronto last year and picked up a prize. The cast are all relatively young-uns but reviews have been excellent.




Finally Joyland (Oscilloscope) is a Pakistani drama about a young man who falls for a trans performer, despite coming from a conservative family. Despite sounding niche, it opened in Cannes last year and also Toronto and Sundance – that’s three of the big 5 fests. Reviews are strong with a 98% RT score.

So all have potential, all have festival buzz and solid reviews and are coming out on Friday rather than Wednesday. So it’s really a case of theatre count. After wrestling with a VPN for half a day (US movie ticket sites are now geo-blocked), it seems that Joyland is coming out in a single theatre, Showing Up in less than 10, Pipeline in a dozen or two, and Paint in a few dozen if not crossing the 100 mark. That means that the likely PTA winner will be Showing Up, due to the director’s profile and A24’s heft, but Joyland could surprise as well. The other two are riskier options in Ultimate.



Predictions for the Weekend

1. Super Mario Bros - $100m 3-day (120m 5-day)
2. Dungeons and Dragons – 18m
3. John Wick 4 - $16m
4. Air- $10m 3-day (13m 5-day)
5. His Only Son - $4m

PTA: Showing Up, Super Mario, Joyland, How to Blow Up, DnD


Join us next week for a debrief on the madness of this week, plus Tranny is going to talk us through Renfield, The Pope’s Exorcist, Sweetwater, Rare Objects, and a film with the worst title I’ve heard in years, Mafia Mamma.

[Buscemi2]

Mafia Mamma is at least a better title than the monstrosity that is the full Big George Foreman title. However, I would have gone with Mamma Mafia as an homage to Pasolini's Mamma Roma. But that might be too clever for a disposable comedy that will be forgotten as soon as it opens, even with Toni Collette starring.

As for Paint, I don't get why this is going wide. This feels like a middling streaming title made for the few people who want to watch a fictionalized depiction of Bob Ross. I have a feeling IFC picked it up solely to make their streaming/pay cable package deals look more appealing.

[Chienfantome]

Illumination + Mario = Jackpot.
I'm pleasantly surprised by the tracking numbers for AIR.
As for Joyland, it is a wonderful film. If it plays near you, go see it !

[Buscemi2]

Yeah, Air just looks like a dated white savior narrative that got made because some industry heavy hitters wanted it produced. But that's probably why it ends up doing well. A lot of people, especially those that don't care about the NBA or Air Jordans, still love things like The Blind Side and The Help that gloss over the truth in favor of appealing to middle America and would go see something like Air because of the inspirational angle and it using the marketing tool of "inspired by a true story".

[Chienfantome]

Super Mario Bros' reviews and WOM aren't great. I wonder how much of an impact it will have on its perspectives.

[Buscemi2]

I think it's critic proof. Kids don't read reviews and adults are either taking their kids or just want to see a more accurate adaptation than the Blade Runner-inspired 1993 version.

It should win April rather easily, perhaps spending its first four weekends at the top spot.

[transformers2]

Yeah, it should be fine. The kid-friendly nature of Illumination movies makes them suspectable to getting mediocre reviews and if it's anything like the Sonic the Hedgehog movies, the exit polling should be great.

[Chienfantome]

I'm sure it will have no impact this weekend, but I'm hearing such disappointing audience feedback that even though it's always easier for a kids friendly film to overpass bad reviews, bad WOM might have an impact on the following weeks.

[Buscemi2]

You always have a vocal minority that will go against the general opinion for things like this in hopes of swaying everyone else into agreeing with them. Cases in point: the Star Wars sequel trilogy and Justice League.

Meanwhile, the Cinemascore was an A. As was Air. Both should have solid weekends.

[Chienfantome]

Boom.
Deadline projects a $92M 3-day and $141M 5-day for Super Mario Bros based on Wednesday and Thursday numbers.
AIR would be $10M 3-day and $16M 5-day.

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates
The Super Mario Bros. Movie $146.4 mil
John Wick: Chapter 4 $14.6 mil
Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves/Air $14.5 mil
Scream VI/His Only Son $3.3 mil
Creed III $2.8 mil
Shazam!: Fury of the Gods $1.6 mil
Paint $750k
A Thousand and One $600k

PTA:
The Super Mario Bros. Movie $33,700
Joyland $21,142
Showing Up $16,733
How to Blow Up a Pipeline $10,039
Air $4,125

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.The Super Mario Bros. Movie $146.3 mil
2.John Wick: Chapter 4 $14.46 mil
3.Air $14.45 mil
4.Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves $13.9 mil
5.Scream VI $3.4 mil
6.His Only Son $2.8 mil
7.Creed III $2.75 mil
8.Shazam!: Fury of the Gods $1.6 mil
9.A Thousand and One $600k
10.Paint $570k

-How to Blow Up a Pipeline $115k
-Showing Up $67k
-Joyland $21k

PTA:
1.The Super Mario Bros. Movie $33,701
2.Joyland $20,638 (1 theater)
3.Showing Up $16,733 (4 theaters)
4.How to Blow Up a Pipeline $9,621 (12 theaters)
5.Air $4,122

-Paint $697 (816 theaters)

[Buscemi2]

It looks like Dungeons & Dragons 2 isn't going to happen after all. Unless international numbers get it to where Paramount or whomever buys eOne from Hasbro ends up getting it made, albeit with a smaller budget.

Meanwhile, I could see Air hitting $50 million by the time it finishes its run, making the possibility of Amazon releasing more titles through MGM very likely.

[transformers2]

Air definitely won't be a one-off for Amazon Studios in the theatrical space. I think the real question is how many titles per year will they put out in theaters. Saltburn has reportedly been testing really well and could conceivably end up in the awards mix, so that seems like a leading candidate to make the pivot from streaming to a big screen debut.

[Buscemi2]

Saltburn might be too niche, even with if being from an Oscar winner (also, her previous film wasn't really all that popular). Red One would seem to be the more likely bet, even with Dwayne Johnson's star power having dampened a bit with his failed attempt to take over the DCEU.