Screaming The Releases - March 10th
Posted: March 9th, 2023, 10:41 pm
Last Week
Creed III scored a box office TKO, grossing 58 m (the highest of the trilogy, though the other two films were released over the 5-day Thanksgiving weekend). Strong reviews and solid audience reception should lead it to become the highest (unadjusted for ticket price inflation) grossing of the Creed series, if not the whole Rocky franchise. In second, Ant-Man And The Wasp: Quantamania had another poor hold, dropping about 60 percent to gross just under 13 m, for a total so far of 187 m (passing the unadjusted total of the first Ant-Man domestically). Marvel will be fine in the short term with Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3 and The Marvels coming up later this year, but it's underperformance does have to be causing some concern for them. In third, the surprisingly potent Cocaine Bear grossed 11 m, dropping 52 percent to gross a total of about 41 m, which is a solid gross considering its rather niche premise. In fourth, anime film Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba - To The Swordsmith Village grossed 10 m, which is a good gross, if beneath the 2021 film Mugen Train's OW. In fifth, surprise success Jesus Revolution had an okay hold, dropping 46 percent to gross about 9 m. Less successful for Lionsgate was the much-delayed Guy Richie film Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre, which was given a last-minute release, resulting in an opening of only 3 m outside of the Top 5.
Creed III also held the top PTA of the week with a PTA of about 15 k. In second, Demon Slayer... had a PTA of about 6 k. Third went to The Quiet Girl, which has performed surprisingly solid numbers so far in comparison to expectations. It grossed about 4 k over the weekend. Ant-Man... was fourth for PTA, grossing about 3 k. Lastly, Jesus Revolution grossed a very similar 3 k.
This Week
Scream VI
This should continue the revival of the franchise the success of the fifth started. The New York setting and the rapid rise to popularity of star Jenna Ortega have seemingly helped lessen the lack of Sidney in terms of buzz, and reviews are, while not quite as strong as they were for the fifth, still relatively positive. One potential concern is the competition - while besides 65 there are no other widely released horror films until the 14th, there will be a lot of space taken up by Shazam, John Wick, Dungeons And Dragons, and Mario over the next few weeks. That being said, it certainly seems like America still likes scary movies.
I expect it to gross 38 m on OW and 87 m in total.
I expect it to get 10-15 Top 5 points (despite my prediction of frontloadedness, there's only one movie per week until the 7th I expect to debut to much), 7-8 PTA points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.
I would recommend taking it in both Box Office and Ultimate.
65
I don't love the prospects for this. It has had a lot of production issues (supposedly including copious reshoots after poor test screenings - which can sometimes salvage a film, but it seems like it could have made things worse in this case - Sony is holding off press screenings until the day of release, but the reviews that have managed to come out are not good), and the release date has been delayed more times than I can count. Additionally, it is releasing against another horror film (I have a feeling this isn't really a horror film, but the marketing has tried to make it look like one), and I imagine it won't be the first choice for most horror fans.
I expect an OW of 10 m, and a total of 24 m.
I expect it to get 3-5 Top 5 points, 1-2 PTA points, and a score of 5 on IMDb.
I would not recommend taking it in Box Office or Ultimate.
Champions
This never really seemed to gain any traction, despite looking like a potential sleeper hit on paper. Focus hasn't has a great track record at the box office over the past few years, and comedies have had a better, but still very mixed track record (especially if there aren't any action or horror elements to distinguish it). Reviews for it aren't great, but the biggest issue is that buzz around it is so small.
I expect an OW of 4 m, and a total of 12 m.
I expect it to get 0 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a score of 8 on IMDb.
Don't take this in Box Office, and the theater count is probably too large to make a difference in Ultimate.
Miscellaneous
Golda and Inside are on the schedule in the game, but both have moved - I believe the former moved to August or September, while the latter opens next week.
Top 5
Scream VI - 38 m
Creed III - 22 m
65 - 10 m
Cocaine Bear - 7 m
Ant-Man... - 7 m
PTA
Scream VI
Creed III
Jesus Revolution
The Quiet Girl
65
Next Week
Join me again for a look at Shazam: Fury Of The Gods, Inside, and Moving On.
Creed III scored a box office TKO, grossing 58 m (the highest of the trilogy, though the other two films were released over the 5-day Thanksgiving weekend). Strong reviews and solid audience reception should lead it to become the highest (unadjusted for ticket price inflation) grossing of the Creed series, if not the whole Rocky franchise. In second, Ant-Man And The Wasp: Quantamania had another poor hold, dropping about 60 percent to gross just under 13 m, for a total so far of 187 m (passing the unadjusted total of the first Ant-Man domestically). Marvel will be fine in the short term with Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3 and The Marvels coming up later this year, but it's underperformance does have to be causing some concern for them. In third, the surprisingly potent Cocaine Bear grossed 11 m, dropping 52 percent to gross a total of about 41 m, which is a solid gross considering its rather niche premise. In fourth, anime film Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba - To The Swordsmith Village grossed 10 m, which is a good gross, if beneath the 2021 film Mugen Train's OW. In fifth, surprise success Jesus Revolution had an okay hold, dropping 46 percent to gross about 9 m. Less successful for Lionsgate was the much-delayed Guy Richie film Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre, which was given a last-minute release, resulting in an opening of only 3 m outside of the Top 5.
Creed III also held the top PTA of the week with a PTA of about 15 k. In second, Demon Slayer... had a PTA of about 6 k. Third went to The Quiet Girl, which has performed surprisingly solid numbers so far in comparison to expectations. It grossed about 4 k over the weekend. Ant-Man... was fourth for PTA, grossing about 3 k. Lastly, Jesus Revolution grossed a very similar 3 k.
This Week
Scream VI
This should continue the revival of the franchise the success of the fifth started. The New York setting and the rapid rise to popularity of star Jenna Ortega have seemingly helped lessen the lack of Sidney in terms of buzz, and reviews are, while not quite as strong as they were for the fifth, still relatively positive. One potential concern is the competition - while besides 65 there are no other widely released horror films until the 14th, there will be a lot of space taken up by Shazam, John Wick, Dungeons And Dragons, and Mario over the next few weeks. That being said, it certainly seems like America still likes scary movies.
I expect it to gross 38 m on OW and 87 m in total.
I expect it to get 10-15 Top 5 points (despite my prediction of frontloadedness, there's only one movie per week until the 7th I expect to debut to much), 7-8 PTA points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.
I would recommend taking it in both Box Office and Ultimate.
65
I don't love the prospects for this. It has had a lot of production issues (supposedly including copious reshoots after poor test screenings - which can sometimes salvage a film, but it seems like it could have made things worse in this case - Sony is holding off press screenings until the day of release, but the reviews that have managed to come out are not good), and the release date has been delayed more times than I can count. Additionally, it is releasing against another horror film (I have a feeling this isn't really a horror film, but the marketing has tried to make it look like one), and I imagine it won't be the first choice for most horror fans.
I expect an OW of 10 m, and a total of 24 m.
I expect it to get 3-5 Top 5 points, 1-2 PTA points, and a score of 5 on IMDb.
I would not recommend taking it in Box Office or Ultimate.
Champions
This never really seemed to gain any traction, despite looking like a potential sleeper hit on paper. Focus hasn't has a great track record at the box office over the past few years, and comedies have had a better, but still very mixed track record (especially if there aren't any action or horror elements to distinguish it). Reviews for it aren't great, but the biggest issue is that buzz around it is so small.
I expect an OW of 4 m, and a total of 12 m.
I expect it to get 0 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a score of 8 on IMDb.
Don't take this in Box Office, and the theater count is probably too large to make a difference in Ultimate.
Miscellaneous
Golda and Inside are on the schedule in the game, but both have moved - I believe the former moved to August or September, while the latter opens next week.
Top 5
Scream VI - 38 m
Creed III - 22 m
65 - 10 m
Cocaine Bear - 7 m
Ant-Man... - 7 m
PTA
Scream VI
Creed III
Jesus Revolution
The Quiet Girl
65
Next Week
Join me again for a look at Shazam: Fury Of The Gods, Inside, and Moving On.