SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/21-23

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

Moderators: Buscemi, BarcaRulz, Geezer, W

Post Reply
User avatar
numbersix
Darth Vader
Posts: 11545
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/21-23

Post by numbersix »

I’m shocked. I’m stunned. No, not that the World Cup ended with the loss of France (and the lives of 6000 immigrants hired to build stadiums in Qatar), but that we actually live in a world in which Avatar 2 has finally been released. That said, it may not exist. It may just be 3 hours of James Cameron conducting mass hypnotism to convince the masses that it’s real, it's actually a good franchise, and to give it a great Cinemascore. And it seems to be working, having earned a solid (but not record-breaking) $134m this weekend and over $440m across the globe. It should be a billion-dollar blockbuster globally, depending on how it performs over the holidays. And speaking of holidays, here we are at Christmas week, usually a key time for Hollywood. Let’s see what gifts Santa brought us this year.




Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Universal) is another sequel with a long gap (11 years), although fans of the original are now graduated, married, and wondering if they really should have married Sandie and had a kid so soon instead of pursuing their dream of becoming a Magick: The Gathering world champ and proving himself to his older brother Chuck who used to make fun of him and call his action figures dolls.

Anyway, this sequel to the Shrek spinoff is another animated romp, and its quality means less than the timing of its release. This is the only animation on the horizon, and given Strange World’s poor performance, this should dominate for families who want to take a break from the big turkey dinner by sitting down for 2 hours and guzzling 30oz sodas between fistfuls of M&Ms. Expect this to open moderately well but perform strongly across the next 2 weeks, and indeed into January. A $20-25m opening across the 5 days (it opens on Weds) is possible, but it could hit $100m before the year’s end. Only eligible for the next two weeks, that also means 8 T5 and 2-4PTA points. This is a solid mid-level picks for $15 in BO, but in Ultimate it’s very much worth your $11.




I Wanna Dance with Somebody’s (Sony) title has recently been changed, starting with Whitney Houston’s name. Even though the world and its great-grandmother knows who sang that iconic pop hit. Charting the singer’s rise to fame, it stars Naomi Ackie as Whitney. Given the singer’s popularity, this is a film that should perform well, but do note the significant lack of buzz around this one, plus the reviews have yet to come out. Ackie’s lack of Golden Globe nomination is not a good sign, but maybe they’re saving all their love for the Oscars. Normally I’d be high on this, but am currently cautious. It could earn $10m this weekend, which could result in a $40m hit, and its $6 price tag in both games doesn’t make it a risk, but at best this film is going to be only fine.




Babylon (Paramount) was originally slated to be a platform release. Then they must have seen the film. The utterly overrated Damien Chazelle returns with another tribute to cinema, this time the roaring 20s. Dealing with a smorgasbord of characters dealing with the transition from silent cinema to the talkies, it’s purported to be a visual orgy (featuring actual orgies), and stars Brad Pitt and Margot Robbie amongst many others. It’s the kind of film that should have swept across awards season and the festival circuit, but critics have not been kind. The film currently sits at 62% on RT, and so far it has been getting a few nominations but looks like bridesmaid. Not unlike David O Russell’s Amsterdam, this star-studded feature could fail to win over audiences. Now opening wide, a sub $10m OW is on the card, and $40m seems to be its ceiling. Not great for $4 in ultimate, but in BO it’s a meagre $2, which could get you anywhere from $10-$20m in the game. A definite pick-up if you want to combine with Avatar and Black Panther 2 to win the season, you lucky, lucky Frenchman.




Another result of schedule-shifting, Women Talking (United Artists) has been pushed later into the season. Normally this film, about a group of women dealing with being sexually assaulted, would be a perfect pick in Ultimate. The reviews from the festivals have been positive, awards are on the cards for the impressive cast of Rooney Mara, Claire Foy, Frances McDormand, and Jessie Buckley. It should earn some PTA points over the next fortnight, but the Ultimate and BO pricetags are a tad too high to justify.




Living (Sony Classics) should enrage me, as it’s a remake of the near-perfect Kurosawa classic Ikiru. But, it has been written by classy novelist Ishiguro and reset to 1950s London. Dealing with the acceptance of death, its stars Bill Nighy, and has been getting solid reviews. It has potential in Ultimate although the question is whether older audiences want to face up to this issue during the festive season. 2-4 PTA points feel about right. You could have done better earlier in the season, but if you’ve a gap, take it.




Finally, Corsage (IFC) is a clever period drama featuring an incredible lead performance from Vicky Kripps, who has been picking up awards since the film’s premiere in Cannes last May. However, IFC don’t have a great reputation with their releases, particularly in this game, so it’s probably not worth it.



Predictions for the weekend


1. Avatar 2 - $60m
2. Puss in Boots 2 - $16m (25m 5-day)
3. I Wanna Dance with Somebody - $10m
4. Babylon - $8m
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever- $3.5m

PTA: Avatar 2, Women Talking, Living, Puss in Boots 2, The Whale




Phew, that’s me done for this year. Next week you can expect a novella from Screen on the vast amount of films coming out next week: dramedy A Man Called Otto and doc Turn Every Page.

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6662
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/21-23

Post by Buscemi2 »

I'm still not buying into the the possibility that Babylon even hits $5 million. It's over three hours and not a franchise film, it's about the film industry, and early word isn't very good. If The Fabelmans couldn't get through to audiences, this won't either.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
transformers2
John Rambo
Posts: 7730
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 5:15 pm

Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/21-23

Post by transformers2 »

Avatar topped Minions' 4th of July take for the 2nd best Monday of the year, so the widespread belief that it's going to hold just fine seems to be materializing.

I believe Corsage is one of the rare IFC titles to get an actual theatrical exclusive limited release this week. If that's the case, it could be in the mix for that 5th PTA spot if The Whale falters upon its semi-wide expansion.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6662
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/21-23

Post by Buscemi2 »

I think Corsage is getting a Oscar push, even though it feels like the only foreign language film getting any sort of push is the one from Bollywood Zack Snyder.

Meanwhile, The Whale's expansion is officially now a wide one. The Wednesday morning showing I'm going to is already half-full.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
numbersix
Darth Vader
Posts: 11545
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/21-23

Post by numbersix »

transformers2 wrote:
December 20th, 2022, 5:12 pm
Avatar topped Minions' 4th of July take for the 2nd best Monday of the year, so the widespread belief that it's going to hold just fine seems to be materializing.

I believe Corsage is one of the rare IFC titles to get an actual theatrical exclusive limited release this week. If that's the case, it could be in the mix for that 5th PTA spot if The Whale falters upon its semi-wide expansion.
Yes, Corsage could sneak in there like a dirty European. That's what we're like

User avatar
transformers2
John Rambo
Posts: 7730
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 5:15 pm

Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/21-23

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Actuals (3-day):
1.Avatar: The Way of Water $63.3 mil
2.Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $12.4 mil
3.I Wanna Dance with Somebody $4.8 mil
4.Babylon $3.6 mil
5.Violent Night $3.51 mil
6.Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $3.49 mil
7.The Whale $1 mil
8.The Fabelmans $745k
9.The Menu $678k
10.Strange World $413k

PTA:
1.Corsage $16,143 (2 theaters)
2.Avatar: The Way of Water $15,073
3.Living $7,595 (3 theaters)
4.Women Talking $5,066 (8 theaters)
5.Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $3,032

-The Whale $1,673 (603 theaters)
-I Wanna Dance with Somebody $1,314
-Babylon $1,078

Kudos to the Europeans for sneaking into the PTA race and stealing the damn crown
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!

Post Reply