Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/2

[transformers2]

Well, it sure it was a quiet, if not depressing Thanksgiving weekend at the box office.

Disney had its biggest animated bomb in ages with Strange World, Devotion got off to a below average start for a war movie, The Fabelmans did just alright in its semi-wide expansion and Bones and All disappeared faster than a drifter who hopped into the wrong van on the interstate in 1982 upon expanding wide. Even the impressive performance of Glass Onion in under 700 theaters was bittersweet for theater owners since it's now 10,000% clear that it would've been a huge hit if Netflix had allowed it to have a longer run and be booked in more theaters. Brighter days are ahead for exhibition with Avatar now just 2 weeks away, but having a Thanksgiving slate do this poorly is a tough blow-especially considering how much the numbers have improved from last year on the whole.

Wide Release:
From Krampus to Santa's Slay to all 3 versions of Black Christmas, horror has had a monopoly on the world of genre Christmas movies forever. Dead Snow director Tommy Wirkola and Sonic the Hedgehog scribes Pat Casey and Josh Miller are seeking to change that with the action comedy Violent Night (Universal). This bloody R-rated romp stars David Harbour as a downtrodden, hard-drinking version of Santa Claus that is forced to regain his purpose and kick some ass after he receives a call for help from a little girl (Leah Brady) that's on his nice list whose family (Alex Hassell, Alexis Louder, Cam Gigandet, Edi Patterson) is being attacked by mercenaries (led by John Leguizamo) seeking to rob $300 million from the home vault of her CEO grandmother (Beverly D'Angelo).

With a premise that is so purposefully nutty and absurd, there will be people out there that will rush out to the theaters on opening weekend to check it out (you'll never guess who will be among them!!!) Will be there enough here to appeal people outside of the vocal but small demographic is the question that will dictate Violent Night's fate. While a lot of the early reviews-which have been generally pretty good so far-have stated that there is a surprising amount of heart underneath all of the carnage, a dose of classic holiday sentimentality may not be enough to win over people that aren't all in on the “John Wick meets Die Hard, but it's Santa Claus” premise.

Barring some kind of seasonal magic taking place, Violent Night seems set to have a run that's comparable to fellow Universal title “Beast”: low double digit opening followed by a semi-respectable legs brought on by a thin release schedule before it craps out once the slate picks up again.
Price: $8 ULT/$7 BO
Predictions: $7-13 mil OW/2-7 PTA/5-11 Top 5/ mid to high 6 IMDB/$20-45 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: The disparity between BO and ULT is signficiant. It's basically useless in BO, but its status as the sole traditional wide release hitting the marketplace over the next 2 weekends (and the all but guaranteed top 5/PTA points that come with that distinction) gives it a high-floor-which makes it appealing at a reasonable $8 price tag.


Limited Releases:
Spoiler Alert (Focus) could be in an even better spot to capitalize on a thin market than Violent Night this weekend. While the long-term prospects for this tearjerker romantic dramedy based on the memoir of Michael Ausiello aren't great as its set to expand wide next weekend and has only gotten lukewarm reviews, the late switches to the limited release date of Women Talking and expansion date of The Son-which pivoted its planned November 25 limited rollout into an Oscar-qualifying run at the last minute after it received middling reviews on the festival circuit that seemed to have killed the bulk of its award hopes-suddenly gives it a very easy path to the top 2 of the PTA charts. If you happen to be looking for a cheap option to fill out your ULT slate that is guaranteed to pick up some PTA points and could even sneak into the top 5 next weekend with a couple of breaks (high enough theater count, the ability to make the $3 or so mil that it seems like it will take to enter that territory), this could be a nice little pickup
Price: $3 ULT/$2 BO
Predictions: $65-100k OW/3-5 PTA/0-3 Top 5/mid to high 6 IMDB/$2.5-8 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: The suddenly strong possibility of it topping the PTA charts give it some appeal in ULT if you missed out on the season's other solid $3 picks (Aftersun, Triangle of Sadness, Holy Spider). Otherwise, avoid it.


We've reached the obligatory IFC day-and-date release segment of the column!!! On this edition, the film I'll be profiling is Four Samosas (IFC). This offbeat comedy that received some pretty good reviews out of Tribeca earlier in this year tells the story of a South Asian-American teen (Verek Potula) who recruits his friends (Sharmita Bhattacharya, Sonal Shah, Nirvan Patnik) to help him steal diamonds from a grocery store owned by his ex-girlfriends father (Tony Mirrcandi) with the hopes of disrupting her recent engagement. Since this segment has the feeling of Groundhog Day, let's just break out the signature line and wrap this up: Four Samosas could've been in the business of stealing a few PTA points this weekend if it wasn't relegated to a day-and-date release. But alas that's a status that IFC only reserves for a handful of titles per year and as a result, Four Samosas will be a non-factor in our game.
Price: $2 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $8-15k OW/0 PTA or Top 5/high 7 to low 8 IMDb/$15-$35k total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: No


Weekend Predictions:
1.Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $25 mil
2.Violent Night $10 mil
3.Strange World $8.5 mil
4.Devotion $3.5 mil
5.The Menu $3 mil

PTA: Spoiler Alert, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Violent Night, The Fabelmans, Strange World

Tune in next week when six previews the latest movies from Sam Mendes and Darren Aronofsky and maybe talks up the re-release of his favorite 2022 film, Father Stu.

[Buscemi2]

Violent Night's selling really well in my area, with one of my nearby theatres getting it on four screens. Combined with decent early word and R-rated horror overperforming lately, it could possibly hit $12-14 million.

As for Spoiler Alert, it will be lucky to make in its entire run what Bros made opening weekend. Reviews have not been good and the marketing's been pitiful (in addition, the trailer showed the entire movie in two minutes). I have a feeling that this wasn't sold off as the director's previous film won Oscars but as with The Eyes of Tammy Faye, the audience for this will be very small.

[transformers2]

Violent Night did $1.1 mil in previews

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $17.6 mil
Violent Night $13.3 mil
Strange World $4.9 mil
The Menu $3.6 mil
Devotion $2.8 mil
I Heard the Bells $1.8 mil
Black Adam $1.7 mil
The Fabelmans $1.3 mil
Bones and All $1.2 mil
Ticket to Paradise $850k

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $17.5 mil
2.Violent Night $13.5 mil
3.Strange World $5.1 mil
4.The Menu $3.5 mil
5.Devotion $2.7 mil
6.I Heard the Bells $2 mil
7.Black Adam $1.6 mil
8.The Fablemans $1.3 mil
9.Bones and All $1.2 mil
10.Ticket to Paradise $855k

-Spoiler Alert $83k

PTA:
1.Spoiler Alert $13,831 (6 theaters)
2.Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $4,550
3.Violent Night $3,653
4.The Fabelmans $1,990
5.The Menu $1,235

-Four Samosas $386 (27 theaters)

[Chienfantome]

-Four Samosas $386 (27 theaters)

Impressive.

[numbersix]

Yes, almost the price of 4 samosas over here in London

[Chienfantome]

Yes, almost the price of 4 samosas over here in London

[JohnErle]

With or without chutney?

[Buscemi2]

Chutney's going to be double.

[JohnErle]

In that case I'll pass. In Vancouver you'd pay maybe $100 tops. Chutney included.