Screening The Releases - September 9th

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Screen203
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Screening The Releases - September 9th

Post by Screen203 »

I apologize for getting this up so late. Considering the choices this weekend, though, it's not likely anyone wants anything but Barbarian and maybe Brahmastara anyways :lol:

Last Weekend

The National Cinema Day promotion helped a little bit, but not much as the summer (as usual) came to a quiet close on Labor Day weekend. Top Gun: Maverick led again after a nearly three-month gap, crossing 700 m with 6 m over the 3-day, and about 8 m over the 4-day. In second over the 4-day was Bullet Train, with 5 m over the 3-day and 7 m over the 4-day. In third place over the 4-day, DC League Of Super Pets added 5 m over the 3-day, and about 7 m over the 4-day - these numbers give both Super Pets and especially Bullet Train a good chance of reaching 100 m in total. In fourth over the 4-day was another movie that has been in theaters for a long time, this time with added footage - Spider-Man: No Way Home with 5 m over the 3-day and 6 m over the 4-day. In fifth was last weekend's leader The Invitation with about 5 m over the 3-day, and 6 m over the 4-day.

This Weekend

Barbarian



Buzz for this in horror circles is quite high right now, but I'm not sure the marketing campaign has done much to reach other audiences. The trailer is very well-done, and having Bill Skarsgard in another creepy role after the It films is a plus for its chances. However, I almost think that the marketing being so cryptic may be hindering it's potential, something I believe could be overtaken if it had a larger campaign (it seems like, despite coming from a major studio, that it is being marketed like an A24 film, with a mostly online, WOM-driven campaign). It should do a bit better than the horror bombs of last fall, possibly reaching 10 m.

I see it grossing 10 m on OW and 30 m in total.

It probably gets a 7 on IMDb, 8-10 Top 5 points (it will probably be able to hang on in the Top 5 until the 30th), and 3-4 PTA points.

I wouldn't take it in either Box Office or Ultimate, but it is a better choice in hindsight than most of the August releases. It could be an okay slate filler, but I would go with The Woman King or Moonage Daydream (and if you don't mind having movies that will only gross one day on the slate calendar, Bros and especially Smile) are better options, IMO.

As for the rest of the releases, I do not believe that most of them are on the slate calendar, but any of them except Brahmastara: Part One will likely gross under 5 m in total, and are not worth taking on any slate no matter what.

PTA

Brahmastara: Part One
Barbarian
Top Gun: Maverick
Bullet Train
DC League Of Super Pets

Top 5

Barbarian - 10 m
Brahmastara: Part One - 5 m
Top Gun: Maverick - 4 m
Bullet Train - 3 m
DC League Of Super Pets - 3 m

Join me once again next week for a slighty more promising slate of releases including The Woman King, Pearl, See How They Run, Moonage Daydream, and The Silent Twins.
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Re: Screening The Releases - September 9th

Post by transformers2 »

Disney probably should've lifted the Barbarian review embargo earlier than yesterday, but then again I doubt anybody could've predicted that the bulk of the mainstream publications would've been so enthusiastic about a movie that had been making noise on the horror circuit for being totally fucking bonkers. Really hope I'll be able to catch it with a decent crowd over the weekend.

Brahmastra is the only the other title on the release schedule this weekend that's actually in the game and if Bollywood didn't drop so quickly, it would probably be a better pick. It could get up to 10+ mil with all the IMAX screens it has.
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numbersix
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Re: Screening The Releases - September 9th

Post by numbersix »

Agreed, and because of that I think it'll struggle to open to 10m. Thinking around 8m

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Re: Screening The Releases - September 9th

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Yeah 8 mil sounds about right.
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Re: Screening The Releases - September 9th

Post by Buscemi2 »

I saw Brahmastra tracking as high as $7 million based on pre-release hype. It might open a bit below RRR but I feel that Disney's backing might allow it to hold better than most Indian films do.

As for Barbarian, I think critics liking it will cause horror fans to stay away. These two groups rarely, if ever, agree, and if the horror community does show, watch them be underwhelmed as if not the next Halloween or some gory slasher that doesn't even try to be scary. Pearl has also gotten great reviews but hardly anyone's going to show up for a glorified IFC Midnight title.
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Re: Screening The Releases - September 9th

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascore:

Barbarian: C+
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Re: Screening The Releases - September 9th

Post by Screen203 »

Buscemi2 wrote:
September 10th, 2022, 8:02 am
Cinemascore:

Barbarian: C+
I can see why Barbarian would get that score. The movie is not exactly what is shown in the preview.
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Re: Screening The Releases - September 9th

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Estimates:
Barbarian $10 mil
Brahmastra $4.4 mil
Bullet Train $3.3 mil
Top Gun: Maverick $3.2 mil
DC League of Superpets $2.8 mil
The Invitation $2.6 mil
Lifemark $2.2 mil
Beast $1.8 mil
Minions: The Rise of Gru $1.7 mil
Spider-Man: No Way Home Re-release $1.3 mil
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Re: Screening The Releases - September 9th

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Actuals:
1.Barbarian $10.5 mil
2.Brahmastra $4.5 mil
3.Bullet Train $3.3 mil
4.Top Gun: Maverick $3.2 mil
5.The Invitation $2.66 mil
6.DC League of Superpets $2.65 mil
7.Lifemark $2.2 mil
8.Beast $1.8 mil
9.Minions: The Rise of Gru $1.7 mil
10.Spider-Man: No Way Home $1.3 mil

-Medieval $822k

PTA:
1.Brahmastra $5,609
2.Barbarian $4,505
3.Bullet Train $1,083
4.DC League of Superpets $872
5.The Invitation $855

Despite Barbarian and Brahmastra both overindexing, this ended up being the 2nd lowest grossing weekend of the year behind January 28-30. While this weekend isn't going to be great either, the volume of new releases and projected $13-15 mil opening for The Woman King should be enough to prevent a 3rd straight yearly bottom 5 BO weekend from occurring.
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Re: Screening The Releases - September 9th

Post by Buscemi2 »

Moonage Daydream might open well in its IMAX-only debut. Not sure how that will translate once it expands wide but it should be an exception to the series of music documentaries that didn't sell theatrically.
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