SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/26

[numbersix]

Is this the weakest August on record? Even with COVID shutting down theatres the last two years, it still seems stronger than what we’ve got now. Last week saw the box office dominated by anime Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero, proving that what the Japanese lack in virility they make up for in hyperbole. Idris Elba wrestling a lion came in second, with a mildly impressive $11m, a veritable blockbuster compared to this weekend’s fare.




First to stumble out of gate like a 3-legged nag, is The Invitation (Sony), an almost unintentionally hilarious film. A young woman (Game of Thrones’s Nathalie Emmanuel) discovers a long-lost relative who invites her to England for a wedding… only it turns out they’re dangerous and sexy vampires. Somewhere some exec dashed through the Sony offices screaming “It’s TWILIGHT MEETS BRIDGERTON”, not realising the former staked the subgenre and the latter is a TV series. With its title change and little buzz, don’t expect much from this, besides a few nice T5 points due to the lack of competition. But resist the primal urge to nab it in BO, as this film may not even make $20m which isn’t good for 5 bucks.




And the silliness continues. Three Thousand Years of Longing (United Artists/MGM) should be a potentially big film, a passion project of George Mad-Max-and-Dancing-Penguins Miller, with Idris Elba and Tilda Swinton in the lead roles. However, it’s a magical film about a djinn who grants a scholar three wishes. It’s like Aladdin for arthouse fans. Sadly, its opening in Cannes was met with a barrage of bofs, with most liking the visuals but saying the story falls short of anything moving. Originally due out next week, its distributors just want to get the misery over with. A $5m opening and sub $20m cume gives this film a very unmagical prospect. Avoid.

As for the limited release films, things get confusing.



Samaritan (Amazon) was supposed to be the big film of the weekend. However, Jeff Bezos, in between finding crafty new ways to turn Western Workers into modern slaves but with added cry boxes (look it up), decided he wanted Sly Stallone’s superhero satire all to himself. It’s getting a theatrical realise, but with no theatre count or real interest from an audience, it’s literally worthless.




Breaking (Bleecker Steet) should be a perfect limited release. Starring John Boyega, it’s a true story about a marine who tries to rob a bank when he receives no support from his government. However, you forget that Bleecker’s execs want to get fired, and so are dumping the well-reviewed film in a couple of hundred theatres this week. It may get a PTA point by default, but it’s not worth your $4 in ultimate or $2 in BO.

Pretty Problems (IFC) was due out this week but has disappeared, possibly intimidated by the overwhelmingly alluring competition, and has gone underground.




Predictions for the weekend

1. The Invitation - $7m
2. Dragon Ball Super Super Super Awesome Super- $7m
3. Beast - $5m
4. Three Thousand Years of Longing - $5m
5. Top Gun Maverick: $4.8m


PTA: The Invitation, Dragon Ball, Breaking, and who knows, none of them deserve any


Next week sees the fun continue with Barbarian being the only wide release, followed by Honk for Jesus Save Your Soul, and Burial. Over to you, Ron Burgundy.

[Buscemi2]

I don't see much hope for the week's movies but maybe Three Thousand Years of Longing does a bit better (it is Miller's first film since Fury Road) and Fifty Shades of Grey but They Really Are Vampires This Time does a bit worse.

Meanwhile, it looks Breaking is going wide as a theatre near me is getting it. I wouldn't expect more than a million opening weekend as I didn't see a trailer for it until Friday.

[transformers2]

While it would be silly to argue that this August has been great at the box office, the lack of new releases save for Bullet Train and Dragonball doing anything of note is making things looks worse than they actually are. 2 of the 3 weekends so far have actually outgrossed the same frame from last year (the 5th-7th and last weekend), Elvis, Top Gun and the bulk of the July holdovers have kept chugging along at a solid clip all year long and even the so-so opening of Beast was higher than what Don't Breathe 2, Respect, The Night House, Reminiscence and The Protege did last year. And as bleak as this weekend's crop of new releases looks, the total box office will only need to clear $61.6 mil to outgross August 2021's finale which was led by the debut of Candyman and the 3rd weekend of Free Guy. I wouldn't bet on this group to clear that low bar, but it's definitely possible if The Invitation can get up to the high single digits (or maybe even $10 if things go unexpectedly well) and films #2-8 pull in $3-8 mil a piece.

Lastly, Barbarian got moved to September 9th last month, so Honk for Jesus will be the only wide-ish release in our game next week.

[Chienfantome]

its opening in Cannes was met with a barrage of bofs,

Thank you for this perfect use of one of the best words of the French langage

[numbersix]

Thank you for this perfect use of one of the best words of the French langage

I am so very fond of that exclamation

[Buscemi2]

While it would be silly to argue that this August has been great at the box office, the lack of new releases save for Bullet Train and Dragonball doing anything of note is making things looks worse than they actually are. 2 of the 3 weekends so far have actually outgrossed the same frame from last year (the 5th-7th and last weekend), Elvis, Top Gun and the bulk of the July holdovers have kept chugging along at a solid clip all year long and even the so-so opening of Beast was higher than what Don't Breathe 2, Respect, The Night House, Reminiscence and The Protege did last year. And as bleak as this weekend's crop of new releases looks, the total box office will only need to clear $61.6 mil to outgross August 2021's finale which was led by the debut of Candyman and the 3rd weekend of Free Guy. I wouldn't bet on this group to clear that low bar, but it's definitely possible if The Invitation can get up to the high single digits (or maybe even $10 if things go unexpectedly well) and films #2-8 pull in $3-8 mil a piece.

Lastly, Barbarian got moved to September 9th last month, so Honk for Jesus will be the only wide-ish release in our game next week.

A lot of theatres last year were still only operating at half-capacity. Also, a lot of those movies either didn't work with audiences or had day-and-date availability and just weren't viewed as something worth paying $11 to see. And there was the fact that nearly all of those were delayed multiple times and didn't have the ability to overcome such delays like Top Gun or No Time to Die did. So you cannot compare last year to this year.

Instead, let's compare this weekend to the same weekend three years ago. Six movies hit at least $8 million. And this weekend, no movie might get to that mark. That's not good.

[Screen203]

While it would be silly to argue that this August has been great at the box office, the lack of new releases save for Bullet Train and Dragonball doing anything of note is making things looks worse than they actually are. 2 of the 3 weekends so far have actually outgrossed the same frame from last year (the 5th-7th and last weekend), Elvis, Top Gun and the bulk of the July holdovers have kept chugging along at a solid clip all year long and even the so-so opening of Beast was higher than what Don't Breathe 2, Respect, The Night House, Reminiscence and The Protege did last year. And as bleak as this weekend's crop of new releases looks, the total box office will only need to clear $61.6 mil to outgross August 2021's finale which was led by the debut of Candyman and the 3rd weekend of Free Guy. I wouldn't bet on this group to clear that low bar, but it's definitely possible if The Invitation can get up to the high single digits (or maybe even $10 if things go unexpectedly well) and films #2-8 pull in $3-8 mil a piece.

This August reminds me a lot of August 2017, where only one or two films did well, and a lot of smaller films tried and failed to capitalize on the lack of product.

As for the new releases, I think The Invitation does get close to 10 m. It's the first PG-13 horror film (unless you count Doctor Strange) in a very long time, vampire films almost always have an audience, and Sony is generally good at marketing horror.

None of the other films this week will do much, though. Three Thousand Years Of Longing is pretty much being dumped (although marketing has increased), and Breaking is going semi-wide (though if it opens well, it will probably expand over Labor Day).

[transformers2]

While it would be silly to argue that this August has been great at the box office, the lack of new releases save for Bullet Train and Dragonball doing anything of note is making things looks worse than they actually are. 2 of the 3 weekends so far have actually outgrossed the same frame from last year (the 5th-7th and last weekend), Elvis, Top Gun and the bulk of the July holdovers have kept chugging along at a solid clip all year long and even the so-so opening of Beast was higher than what Don't Breathe 2, Respect, The Night House, Reminiscence and The Protege did last year. And as bleak as this weekend's crop of new releases looks, the total box office will only need to clear $61.6 mil to outgross August 2021's finale which was led by the debut of Candyman and the 3rd weekend of Free Guy. I wouldn't bet on this group to clear that low bar, but it's definitely possible if The Invitation can get up to the high single digits (or maybe even $10 if things go unexpectedly well) and films #2-8 pull in $3-8 mil a piece.

Lastly, Barbarian got moved to September 9th last month, so Honk for Jesus will be the only wide-ish release in our game next week.

A lot of theatres last year were still only operating at half-capacity. Also, a lot of those movies either didn't work with audiences or had day-and-date availability and just weren't viewed as something worth paying $11 to see. And there was the fact that nearly all of those were delayed multiple times and didn't have the ability to overcome such delays like Top Gun or No Time to Die did. So you cannot compare last year to this year.

Instead, let's compare this weekend to the same weekend three years ago. Six movies hit at least $8 million. And this weekend, no movie might get to that mark. That's not good.

There were some theaters in Canada not operating at full capacity, but that was not the case in the US in late August. Regardless, it's fair to say that the market was compromised last year and any improvement from 2021 to now isn't overly impressive.

However, the 2019 to 2022 numbers speak to an underdiscussed, massive problem with the current theatrical marketplace: Volume of releases. Let's look at August 2019 for example: It wasn't exactly a parade of smash hits, but there was a solid stream of releases that went wide that month (13). From that bunch, 5 ended up clearing $60 mil (Dora and the Lost City of Gold, Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, Good Boys, Angel Has Fallen, Hobbs & Shaw) and 1 cleared $150 (Hobbs & Shaw). This year, we only got 8 including this weekend's releases and the only one that is going to end up topping all of those August 2019 titles save for Hobbs & Shaw from that list is the lone movie that received a release this month that was actually treated like a full-blown summer movie by the studio that was behind it (Bullet Train). Nothing with the possible exception of Bodies Bodies Bodies has truly underperformed all month, it's just that titles like Beast, The Invitation and even Dragonball are only going to bring so many people out. May through July were full of positive takeaways at the box office, but if Hollywood doesn't trot out more active slates moving forward, they're going to be running into dead spots like this all the time.

[Screen203]

I definitely agree about the volume of releases. Another issue that is very similar is the movies that are being shown are not that diverse in terms of genre. An example of this is that (if Pearl goes wide and you count Don't Worry Darling and Beast as horror films - I'm also not sure I would say Bodies Bodies Bodies is an outright horror film, but it was marketed as one, which I believe contributed to its relatively soft performance), starting two weeks ago and lasting until Smile on the 30th. While as a horror fan I definitely don't have an issue with this, and especially with horror this has happened in the past, there are only a few new releases that are not horror films coming out over the next month.

[Buscemi2]

I'd say you two overestimated Bodies Bodies Bodies. This is not the kind of film horror fans turn up to in droves. They want violence, sex, limited story, and shallow characters that exist solely to die. It was never going to take off, especially since said fans were more interested in Prey (I have to imagine Disney wishes they'd put that one into theatres outside of a few advance screenings).

[transformers2]

The Invitation did $775k in previews last night

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
The Invitation $7 mil
Bullet Train $5.6 mil
Beast $4.9 mil
Top Gun: Maverick $4.8 mil
Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero $4.6 mil
DC League of Superpets $4.2 mil
Three Thousand Years of Longing $2.9 mil
Minions: The Rise of Gru/Thor: Love and Thunder $2.7 mil
Where the Crawdads Sing $2.3 mil

If the estimates more or less hold, this will be the lowest grossing weekend since February 11-13 and the 4th lowest of the year overall.

[numbersix]

Yep, that's what I was implying

[Buscemi2]

Dragon Ball Super had the largest second weekend drop for a #1 opener since Friday the 13th thirteen years ago. Of course, this was a very frontloaded film, much like its predecessor. In addition, the film lost 79 theatres in its second week, making this a rare case of a film losing theatres after a solid opening weekend.

Meanwhile, Breaking barely cleared a million on opening weekend and will likely be down to evening shows at a number of locations, even with the expected holiday weekend bumps, especially this Saturday.

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.The Invitation $6.8 mil
2.Bullet Train $5.6 mil
3.Beast $4.9 mil
4.Top Gun: Maverick $4.72 mil
5.Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero $4.66 mil
6.DC League of Superpets $4.1 mil
7.Three Thousand Years of Longing $2.9 mil
8.Minions: The Rise of Gru $2.7 mil
9.Thor: Love and Thunder $2.6 mil
10.Where the Crawdads Sing $2.3 mil

-Rogue One IMAX Re-Release $1.1 mil
-Breaking $986k

PTA:
1.The Invitation $2,185
2.Bullet Train $1,596
3.Beast $1,299
4.DC League of Superpets $1,260
5.Three Thousand Years of Longing $1,198

-Breaking $1,093 (902 theaters)

Actuals brought this down to the lowest weekend since Jan 28-30 and the 3rd lowest since Jan 28-30. And to think the next 2 weeks are likely going to be even worse...