Screening The Releases - August 12th

[Chienfantome]

What a weak month of August we're in.

[Buscemi2]

Dragon Ball Super is looking like it could open decently though.

[Chienfantome]

It does, yep.

[Screen203]

I'm not sure anything before The Woman King even reaches 30 m in total. I think that Beast could do it if it has good legs, or possibly Barbarian (although even before Disney acquired them, 20th Century/Searchlight had horrible luck with horror, at least over the past 5 years or so - excluding Ready Or Not which actually did okay).

[Buscemi2]

Barbarian looks like it should have gone to Hulu. If Bill Skarsgard wasn't in it, it would have.

[Screen203]

High-concept, mainstream original horror is one of the easiest genres to sell when the movie reviews well (and has a decent marketing campaign), which is probably what Disney/20th Century were thinking sending it to theaters. Also, they seem confident in its quality, as they have been screening it a decent amount, and reviews seem like they will be at least decent (although with horror, early positive buzz doesn't always mean the reviews stay strong). The trailer, in my opinion, is very well-made as well, giving just enough away to generate intrigue without spoiling everything. The only thing standing in its way is that there hasn't been much in the way of non-theatrical marketing so far, as well as Disney releasing a lot of 20th Century/Searchlight films in September/October (See How They Run, the re-release of Avatar, Amsterdam, and The Banshees Of Inisherin), which could limit their focus on this.

If everything goes right for it, I could see it having an OW of somewhere in the mid-teens all the way up to 20 m, and grossing 50 m or more in the end.

[Buscemi2]

Barbarian looks to be nothing more than Vacancy in an AirBnB, And Disney already released a kidnapping film earlier this year with Fresh, which even with positive critical response and The Winter Soldier in the villain role, was sent straight-to-Hulu. I don't understand how Barbarian is any different from Fresh.

Meanwhile, horror fans will praise anything as long as it's got a lot of gore. It doesn't mean they will show up.

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Disney's other September 9th release outdid it. If Brahmastra Part One has half the buzz of RRR, that would be a great success.

[transformers2]

Barbarian is a huge wild card. Disney clearly believes it in since they sent it to theaters and it's got a pretty ideal setup for success as an original horror movie that's being released in a non-competitive marketplace. Honestly, its biggest obstacle could be WOM. Word is that's a really wild ride that heads in some really unexpected directions and that tends to be a recipe for a polarizing reception.

[Buscemi2]

But how often do we hear about how a certain movie is going to change the horror genre but then it never does? The one exception might be Midsommar but folk horror existed way before then and the cash-ins have been niche at best in terms of audience appeal.

Also, Barbarian's trailer seems so show the entire movie in two minutes, which feels par the course with a number of 20th Century titles lately not named The Bob's Burgers Movie or Amsterdam.

[transformers2]

Who said anything about Barbarian changing the trajectory of the genre? The praise towards it has largely been centered around the crazy directions the plot goes in and how it mixes horror with comedy, but it's not being widely referred to as groundbreaking or anything like that. And I also literally pointed to the buzz as a reason why it might not do well, so this is a particularly silly argument to have.

[Buscemi2]

The fact that you said crazy trajectory suggests that it might be praised for being different (but will it?). The general consensus of horror fans don't want different. They only want gore, kills, and tits. This is why they flocked to a dud like Halloween Kills but largely ignored something unlike a traditional horror film like Lamb.

Also, horror comedy only does well if it's something like Zombieland. Humor turns off a lot of the community for some reason (unless it's them making the jokes).

[Screen203]

I doubt the alleged comedy elements of Barbarian will hurt it much over OW, unless they focus on them in the marketing campaign. I agree that legs may not be great (reviews have compared it to Malignant).