Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/22

[transformers2]

In the second round of his battle with the box office, The God of Thunder got struck down pretty hard

Thor joined his colleague Doctor Strange in the 2022 MCU “bad” exit polling/hard drop club as Love and Thunder fell just under 68% from its OW with a $46.6 mil haul. Fortunately for Thor and Disney, Love and Thunder still easily topped the box office and only needs to make roughly $90 mil to top Ragnarok and become the franchise's new high earner.

This is actually the fourth title from Phase 4 of the MCU that has dipped over 60% in the weekend following its debut (there is a bit of an asterisk attached to the box office behemoth No Way Home's 68% dip as Christmas Day fell on its second weekend), which kind of crushes the popular trade pundit theory that Love and Thunder's dip is the latest sign that people are turning on the MCU. I detailed my belief as to why fans are bitching about Love and Thunder, Multiverse of Madness and Eternals a couple weeks back, so the only thing I'll add is that I think these drops are at least somewhat fueled by people being more eager to not be effected by the spoilers that flood every corner of the internet by seeing these films on opening weekend-particularly after people spoiled the key deaths of Endgame within hours of its release.

In terms of newcomers, Where the Crawdads Sing soaked up most of the attention. Sony's adaptation of the bestselling novel easily blew past its modest tracking figures by taking home $17.3 mil, which was good enough for a third-place finish. While its ability to show legs moving forward is rightfully being questioned, the very good exit polling data, respectable day-to-day holds during its OW and lack of female-aimed films for at least the next few weeks gives it a pretty solid chance to remain on megaplex marquees well into August.

Paramount didn't fare quite as well with Paws of Fury. The long-delayed animated pic based on Blazing Saddles got eaten alive by holdover Minions: the Rise of Gru-which continues to comically outpace every other animated film that's been released during COVID to date-and only earned $6.3 mil during its first three days of release. Good news for Paramount is they spent very little money to acquire Paws of Fury from STX ($10 mil) and this marks the first true failure for the studio in a year that ranks among their most successful in recent memory.

Rounding out the top 5 was a couple of milestone setters in Top Gun: Maverick and Elvis, which cleared $600 mil and $100 mil respectively over the weekend. The success of these films that were mostly geared towards adults is more great news for the theatrical industry and something studios should hold onto as a August/September slate that doesn't appear to have much in the way of surefire hits quickly approaches.

Wide Release:
After starting out his directorial career with back-to-back hits, it was only a matter of time before he got the money to make a really big movie. He got the chance to do just that with his third feature Nope (Universal), which is a full-blown blockbuster that was shot on IMAX cameras and with a reported budget of $68 mil, is easily the biggest original movie to hit theaters this summer.

Nope sees Peele pivot out of the horror genre and into sci-fi with a story that at least somehow focuses on a brother and sister (Daniel Kaluuya, Keke Palmer) that hire a film crew (Brandon Perera, Michael Wincott) to document a UFO on their horse ranch after their father (Keith David) dies under mysterious circumstances.

Not only will Nope offer a valuable test for the viability of original blockbusters and Peele's brand as a director outside of the horror genre, but it could help prove if people still enjoy having a veil of mystery surrounding a title before they go out and see it in theaters. We're a whopping 3 days away from the release and nobody knows the full scope of the plot, exactly how third billed actor Steven Yeun factors into the UFO situation or if selling the movie on a potential encounter with aliens is just Peele's way of misdirecting audiences before hitting them with a completely different movie. Adding to the near total absence of concrete information about Nope is the lack of full reviews at this point, although the social media embargo did lift last night after its LA premiere and the early word seems to be very strong (we'll find out for sure tomorrow morning/afternoon when the review embargo drops).

While I'm still a bit skeptical that the masses will be willing to head out to see something they know so little about on opening weekend, Nope should ultimately do pretty well. Even though Us wasn't nearly as well-received as Get Out, Peele has already solidified himself as the rare director whose name is capable of being a major draw and the awareness of this film's existence couldn't possibly be any higher as Universal has been aggressively pushing this film since the teaser trailer dropped on Super Bowl Sunday back in mid-Feburary. It's also pretty clearly being positioned by the industry as this summer's penultimate event film for adults, which could motivate some casual moviegoers to make their final trips to theaters until after Labor Day. Its status as more of a sci-fi movie than a horror and the realistic possibility of the revelations of its mysteries being divisive among audiences could give it shorter legs than both Get Out or Nope, but at the bare minimum it should keep Peele's streak of $100+ mil grossers intact.
Price: $20 ULT/$24 BO
Predictions: $35-55 mil OW/8-15 PTA/11-21 Top 5/high 6 to low 7 IMDb/$110-175 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Completely depends on whether or not you prefer it to Bullet Train or DC League of Superpets as a 1B to Thor.


Limited Release:
Non-English language films often take a while to hit the shores of the United States, but the duration of the wait time for My Donkey, My Lover & I (Greenwich) is fucking absurd. Not only did this French/Belgian production initially release in its native countries all the way back in September 2020, it's been a year since it received a theatrical release in any another country (shutout to the people of Portugal and Russia who ironically saw this film get released in their country on July 22, 2021).

Will this low-key movie about a schoolteacher who chooses to follow her married lover on his family vacation through the Cevennes Mountains be warmly greeted upon its long-delayed arrival in US cinemas? Unless a whole lot of Americans got into French screwball comedies during the past 2 years, that doesn't seem likely. The reception internationally has been fine, but not overly enthusiastic (it currently sits at a 6.5 on IMDb and while the RT score is currently at 100%, there are only a few true rave reviews), Greenwich doesn't have an overly strong track record as an arthouse distributor and the limited market is sort of crowded by current standards at the moment with Fire of Love and Marcel the Shell with Shoes continuing to do decent business after their OW's. It should be able to place in the top 5 for PTA this weekend if the theater count is low enough, but it's not going to stick around and be a player on the scene next weekend when a pair of wide releases and three limited releases are set to enter the fray.

Price: $2 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $5-25k OW/0-2 PTA/ mid 6 IMDb/$10-$75k total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: It's floor is shaky as hell, but if it can pick up a PTA point or 2, it will be a worthwhile end-of-slate filler pick.


Weekend Predictions:
1.Nope $42 mil
2.Thor: Love and Thunder $25 mil
3.Minions: The Rise of Gru $16 mil
4.Where the Crawdads Sing $10 mil
5.Top Gun: Maverick $8 mil

PTA: Nope, Thor: Love and Thunder, Minions: The Rise of Gru, Where the Crawdads Sing, My Donkey, My Lover & I

Tune in next week when six breaks down a sizable crop of films that includes the directorial debut of an Office alum, a different kind of superhero movie and Lena Dunham's latest attempt to regain favor with an audience that has largely ignored her since Girls left the airwaves.

[Chienfantome]

My Donkey, My Lover & I is such a great comedy, it really deserves to get recognition. It's sort of an absurd modern comedy western with one of the best actresses working today, Laure Calamy. If it plays anywhere near you, I can only highly recommend it.

As for Nope, I think it can open above $50M, but maybe that's because I have it on my slate. I sure hope it delivers... and I don't get spoiled until it gets released here in France in mid-August !

[Buscemi2]

The lack of reviews so far is a worrying sign for Nope. Also, the film might be too intellectual for a genre that's gotten increasingly dumber over the past few decades.

It might get some success on IMAX, as it was filmed in 65mm, but it could very well be a one-and-done type film.

[numbersix]

Agree with Chien. $50m OW and a cume of $125m. The competition cleared to make this a big win.

Reviews were embargoed, which often is a sign of a poor film, but in this case it's due to spoilers and Peele wanting to maintain the mystery. The initial response has been very positive.

Even if it's one-and-done that can still lead to a huge BO.

[transformers2]

Nope did $6.4 mil in previews, which is a million off from what Us did ahead of its $71.1 mil OW in March 2019.

[Buscemi2]

Keep in mind that Us arrived in a rather barren theatrical landscape, only having Captain Marvel to worry about. Nope has more competition and this could lead to a much smaller weekend take than Us had.

[transformers2]

How is Us going against the 3rd weekend of Captain Marvel less favorable than Nope going against the 3rd weekend of Thor? If anything, Nope has an even clearer path to success since Captain Marvel held significantly better than Love and Thunder.

[Buscemi2]

Nope is also facing holdovers in Where the Crawdads Sing, a still-decently holding Top Gun, Elvis, and Minions (yes, I know the last one is a different audience but still). Us was released in an extremely weak month where if it wasn't Captain Marvel, it was one-and-done or dead on arrival. In addition, Us wasn't regarded as the modern classic Get Out was, so you don't have as much anticipation this time for Nope. Also, Nope is a different genre than Get Out or Us, which could shut out the horror crowd that flocked to the two previous Peele films.

[numbersix]

Statistically the preview-to-OW ratio has dropped since lockdown, perhaps due to some still feeling nervous about heading out (or just giving up on cinema entirely).

With that Thurs figure I think Nope is good for a $50m opening.

[transformers2]

$50-60 mil seems like the range for the OW. I'll be very curious to see what the exits are and how it holds in the coming weekends. The early IMDB score is in the high 7's and the movie nerds are loving it (myself included), but it's something that could definitely alienate (no pun intended) some audiences with the execution of its story and the pacing.

[Buscemi2]

Nope got a B Cinemascore, the same as Us. For a horror film, this would be good but for sci-fi, not so hot.

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Nope $44 mil
Thor: Love and Thunder $22.1 mil
Minions: The Rise of Gru $17.7 mil
Where the Crawdads Sing $10.3 mil
Top Gun: Maverick $10 mil
Elvis $6.3 mil
Paws of Fury $3.9 mil
The Black Phone $3.5 mil
Jurassic World Dominion $3 mil
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris $1.4 mil

[Chienfantome]

A bit disappointed by Nope's score, although it's still a good opening weekend.

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.Nope $44.4 mil
2.Thor: Love and Thunder $22.6 mil
3.Minions: The Rise of Gru $18 mil
4.Where the Crawdads Sing $10.4 mil
5.Top Gun: Maverick $10.3 mil
6.Elvis $6.6 mil
7.Paws of Fury $3.9 mil
8.The Black Phone $3.5 mil
9.Jurassic World Dominion $3.1 mil
10.Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris $1.4 mil

PTA:
1.Nope $11,721
2.Thor: Love and Thunder $5,162
3.Minions: The Rise of Gru $4,727
4.Where the Crawdads Sing $2,837
5.Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris $1,405

-My Donkey, My Lover and I-$588 (51 theaters)

[numbersix]

I did tell you I made a pact with Elvis.