Screening The Releases - July 15th

[Screen203]

Last Week

Despite being another MCU film with mixed reviews, Thor: Love And Thunder still achieved the third highest OW of the year with 144 m - a fast drop seems likely, although a lack of competition could keep it afloat for longer than it would have otherwise. Minions: The Rise Of Gru had a 57% drop to 46 m, which is a hold relatively on par with the first Minions despite much better reception from critics. It will be fine, though, as it has more summer weekdays ahead, giving it time to stabilize. Top Gun: Maverick continues its incredible run, dropping 40% to 15 m in its (7th!) week in the Top 5. Elvis continues to overperform, dropping 39% to 11 m. Lastly, Jurassic World: Dominion, in spite of mostly negative reception and competition from Thor, drops 47% to 8 m.

This Week

Where The Crawdads SIng



The adaptation of the literary phenomenon comes to theaters this weekend, and should do decent business. While the novel is very popular, I don't believe it shares the acclaim of some of its contemporaries like Gone Girl, and I believe the mixed-to-negative reviews may hurt this a little bit. However, mixed-to-negative reviews did not hurt The Girl On The Train (the most recent comparision I could think of besides A Simple Favor - which I do not believe was as popular a book) that much. Daisy Edgar-Jones has had recent success with Normal People, and the marketing has heavily pushed Taylor Swift's original song as well as Reese Witherspoon's (who recommended the book in her book club, boosting its profile heavily) involvement. The mystery angle should help it as well, as even Death On The Nile did 45 m, and legs should benefit from being one of the only films this summer aimed at adults.

I see a 20 m OW, and a 65 m total.

It is a decent choice in Ultimate and Box Office, being one of the few mid-range titles that has a shot at breaking out.

It will get you 5-6 Top 5 points, a 6 on IMDb, and 2-3 PTA points.

Paws Of Fury: The Legend Of Hank



Despite an all-star cast including Samuel L. Jackson and Mel Brooks, I don't see this breaking out. Minions and (to a lesser extent) Thor still are drawing families to theaters, and I can't see them flocking to this, as it looks a bit low-rent and dosen't look like it has much appeal to anyone over the age of 10. It will probably open okay, but legs won't be great with competition from Super Pets.

I see it grossing 8 m on OW, and 22 m in total.

I wouldn't recommend it in either Ultimate or Box Office.

It will get you 1-2 Top 5 points, a 4 on IMDb, and 0 PTA points.

Mrs. Harris Goes To Paris



I feel like this is being released the wrong way as a semi-wide release instead of a platform release. Despite a charming trailer and positive reviews, Crawdads will take away much of its audience. In addition, potential crossover to arthouse audiences will be taken by the wide expansion of Marcel The Shell.... However, I do believe it is likely to stick around due to positive WOM and a lack of competition for its audience.

I see it grossing 3 m on OW, and 10 m in total.

If you take it, it should be in Ultimate - it likely won't do much in Box Office. Still, it is probably a better choice than Vengeance or Bodies Bodies Bodies.

It will get you 0 Top 5 points, a 7 on IMDb, and 2-3 PTA points.

Limited Releases

From Where They Stood



I don't see this doing much on the limited scene, despite Greenwich's past successes in the documentary realm.

I wouldn't recommend taking it in Box Office or Ultimate.

It will probably get 0 PTA points and a 7 on IMDb.

Top 5

Thor: Love And Thunder - 45 m
Minions: The Rise Of Gru - 28 m
Where The Crawdads Sing - 20 m
Top Gun: Maverick - 13 m
Elvis - 9 m

PTA -

Thor: Love And Thunder
Minions: The RIse Of Gru
Where The Crawdads Sing
Marcel The Shell...
Mrs. Harris Goes To Paris

Join us next week for transformer's take on the new releases, including what is probably my most anticipated film of the rest of the summer - Nope.

[Buscemi2]

It's pretty sad to know that Paws of Fury is now Richard Pryor's last credit as he got a "based on" credit for co-writing Blazing Saddles (of which Paws of Fury is a remake of).

And Where the Crawdads Sing is getting panned by critics. I wouldn't be surprised if it failed to hit $10 million.

[transformers2]

Where the Crawdads Sing is a tricky one to peg. The impressive sales figures definitely don't correlate with the early ticket sales, but it does seem like the kind of title that could do decent walk-up business and bring in audiences outside of the coasts. I'll say $15 mil for now, but it wouldn't surprise me if it got up to $20-23 or floundered to 10-12.

[transformers2]

Preview totals:
Where the Crawdads Sing $2.3 mil
Paws of Fury $505k

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Thor: Love and Thunder $46 mil
Minions: The Rise of Gru $26 mil
Where the Crawdads Sing $17 mil
Top Gun Maverick $12 mil
Elvis $7.6 mil
Paws of Fury $6.3 mil
The Black Phone $5.3 mil
Jurassic World Dominion $5 mil
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris $1.9 mil
Lightyear $1.3 mil

[Chienfantome]

That's a good result from Crawdads, I really wasn't expecting such a number.

[Buscemi2]

The Friday-to-Saturday drop was 26% though, which seems to suggest a lot of the book's fans went to the advance screenings held on Wednesday and Thursday or on Friday. Since Sony releases Cinemascores late, it remains to be seen it it will play beyond the target audiences of women over 30 and Southerners.

Meanwhile, Focus shot themselves in the foot by releasing Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris wide on the same day as Where the Crawdads Sing, severely limiting its own audience. Either this should have stayed in May or gone to late summer/early fall (Focus used to have a film open on Labor Day weekend nearly every year, more often than not having reasonable numbers).

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.Thor: Love and Thunder $46.6 mil
2.Minions: The Rise of Gru $26.8 mil
3.Where the Crawdads Sing $17.3 mil
4.Top Gun Maverick $12.3 mil
5.Elvis $8 mil
6.Paws of Fury $6.3 mil
7.The Black Phone $5.4 mil
8.Jurassic World Dominion $5.2 mil
9.Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris $2 mil
10.Lightyear $1.4 mil

PTA:
1.Thor: Love and Thunder $10,658
2.Minions: The Rise of Gru $6,523
3.Where the Crawdads Sing $4,726
4.Fire of Love $4,629
5.Mrs. Harris to Goes Paris $1,992

Exit Polling:
Where the Crawdads Sing: Cinemascore: A-, PostTrak: 87% positive/70% definite recommend
Paws of Fury: Cinemascore: A-, PostTrak: 66% positive/49% definite recommend

[Screen203]

I imagine Crawdads will have good legs. Audiences seem to like it, and there isn't much competition for the target audience.

And Mrs. Harris should have been a platform release. That being said, it will likely have good legs as well.