Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/6, 7/8

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/6, 7/8

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It took longer than expected, but the pandemic-era has finally birthed a smash hit animated film.

On the backs of families and a bunch of suit-clad teenage boys, Minions: The Rise of Gru eviscerated even the most optimistic forecasts by putting together an estimated $125.1 mil over the 4-day Fourth of July weekend. Whether this is a sign that families are returning or just a fluke hit boosted by armies of TikTok memers will reveal itself in the coming months, but Universal and theater owners have to be thrilled with these results.

The holdover market sans Lightyear, which took another brutal 60%+ tumble in its third weekend of release, proved to be strong once again. The remainder of the weekend's top 5 films (Top Gun: Maverick, Elvis, Jurassic World Dominion, The Black Phone) all managed sub 50% drops, which is a really impressive feat for the first full swing Independence Day Weekend in the US since 2019. With another guaranteed smash hit entering the fray in roughly 48 hours, it's fair to say that the box office recovery that many in the industry had hoped would occur last summer is finally upon us.

Wide Release:
You'd have to be comatose or actively hiding from any form of film discourse for the past 4 and a half years to not be aware of the impact Ragnarok had on the image of the Thor films by now. Taika Waititi turned the MCU's least liked and financially viable character outside of Ant-Man into an immediate fan favorite with a colorful, goofy and high energy movie that is widely hailed as one of the mega franchise's best. The warm embrace of the God of Thunder's rebrand makes Thor: Love and Thunder (Disney/Marvel) easily the buzziest Thor film to date, which is music to Disney's cash-bleeding ears.

In addition to the love of Ragnarok, the return of Natalie Portman as Jane Foster and unveiling of The Mighty Thor character, Christian Bale's presence as the villain Gorr the God Butcher and a (likely pretty brief) appearance from the Guardians of the Galaxy are further driving up the anticipation for the fourth solo film for Chris Hemsworth's charismatic hero. Some would say the positive, but not exactly glowing reviews could deal a late blow to the hype train. I'm firmly not in this camp. This could very well prove to be another Jojo Rabbit-esque case of Waititi's blend of sentimentality and absurdity not playing as well with critics as does it with audiences and more importantly, reviews don't matter a whole hell of a lot for established brands in the proper MCU. Ultimately, Love and Thunder should have no trouble topping the $315 mil Ragnarok made and definitely has a chance to beat Multiverse of Madness' $410 mil+ run if the WOM is good enough.

Price: $46 ULT/$49 BO
Predictions: $130-170 mil OW/11-17 PTA/15-26 Top 5/$320-400 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: It's already on everybody's slate, so we clearly all agree on the answer to this one.



Limited Release:
One of the final fully gray areas in the current cinematic landscape is the strength of the appetite for documentaries. Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain is easily the highest grossing documentary released during COVID and it only made a little over $5 mil during its run last July/August. Fire of Love (Neon) is the next title looking to breakthrough and it's about as strong of a candidate as you could ask for. Sara Dosa's telling of the story of French scientists/lovers Catherine and Maurice Krafft -who died in 1991 while documenting an active volcano on Mount Unzen in Japan- through archival footage that they shot themselves and narration from Miranda July got terrific reviews on the festival circuit earlier this year, was acquired by Neon and National Geographic-who have as strong of a track record with docs as anyone in the industry today-out of Sundance and is receiving a slow, steady rollout over the next few weeks. While I'm not overly optimistic it will top Roadrunner or even get past $1 mil in total BO, the unique subject matter and true platform release should allow it to at least enjoy a bit of success on the arthouse circuit.
Price: $3 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $25-75k OW/3-9 PTA/$200k-$3 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Box Office is a hard no, but it has the potential to be a pretty good Ultimate pick.


Weekend Predictions:
1.Thor: Love and Thunder $155 mil
2.Minions: The Rise of Gru $56 mil
3.Top Gun: Maverick $17 mil
4.Elvis $13.5 mil
5.Jurassic World Dominion $9 mil

PTA: Thor: Love and Thunder, Minions: The Rise of Gru, Fire of Love, Top Gun: Maverick, Elvis

Tune in next week when Screen breaks down the latest bestselling novel to receive a movie adaptation, a long-delayed animated film that almost surely was made in 2007 and the long-awaited elderly British answer to Emily in Paris.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/6, 7/8

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Gonna go a little higher on Thor - around $175m. If Dr Strange can open to $180 then the next Thor can do just as good.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/6, 7/8

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Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris existed way before Emily in Paris. There was even a made-for-TV adaptation back in the 90's with Angela Lansbury starring.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/6, 7/8

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Buscemi2 wrote:
July 5th, 2022, 7:25 pm
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris existed way before Emily in Paris. There was even a made-for-TV adaptation back in the 90's with Angela Lansbury starring.
Well aware. Was just making a dumb joke.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/6, 7/8

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Love and Thunder did $29 mil in previews last night, which ranks 5th all time for an MCU movie behind Endgame, No Way Home, Infinity War and Multiverse of Madness.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/6, 7/8

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Thor's Cinemascore was a B+. Seems like Marvel fatigue might be starting to set in.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/6, 7/8

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Weekend Estimates:
Thor: Love and Thunder $143 mil
Minions: The Rise of Gru $45.6 mil
Top Gun: Maverick $15.5 mil
Elvis $11 mil
Jurassic World Dominion $8.4 mil
The Black Phone $7.7 mil
Lightyear $2.9 mil
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On $340k
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $262k
Mr. Malcolm's List $245k
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/6, 7/8

Post by Chienfantome »

It's less than expected for Thor, but it's still solid.
Glad to see Elvis run towards the $100M. Haven't seen it yet, but any non superhero, nonsequel, non remake film grossing that much is a delight nowadays.
Jurassic will end up far below $400M.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/6, 7/8

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I think we're seeing a problem with the MCU - with no real overarching story driving it, it's now just coasting and audiences will get tired unless it's Spiderman.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/6, 7/8

Post by Chienfantome »

numbersix wrote:
July 11th, 2022, 8:05 am
I think we're seeing a problem with the MCU - with no real overarching story driving it, it's now just coasting and audiences will get tired unless it's Spiderman.
Fingers crossed !!!!!
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/6, 7/8

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I'd rather have Marvel than the jingoistic 80's nostalgia that's taking over.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/6, 7/8

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numbersix wrote:
July 11th, 2022, 8:05 am
I think we're seeing a problem with the MCU - with no real overarching story driving it, it's now just coasting and audiences will get tired unless it's Spiderman.
While that's definitely part of it, it goes deeper than that. There's frustration over them not exploring the multiverse concept more and Kevin Feige/Disney has given the director's a lot more creative freedom of late-which has resulted in movies that are darker, weirder and campier than what the MCU has produced in the past and that has naturally resulted in responses that are a lot less enthusiastic (save for Shang-Chi and No Way Home-which surprise surprise didn't veer too much from the established mold). Considering that nobody outside of the production and studios knows what Wakanda Forever is going to be like without Chadwick Boseman and James Gunn and most of the cast has stated the Guardians of the Galaxy 3 is significantly more serious than its predecessors, this era of relative diverseness for MCU titles could keep going for at least the next year.

The three titles that have drawn the most ire (Eternals, Multiverse of Madness, Love and Thunder) are definitely rough around the edges-particularly from a writing standpoint, but it's been refreshing to see MCU movies where the director's style can be felt, and the primary purpose of its existence wasn't merely to set up another film. If the box office receipts start to really get effected, Feige will no doubt change course and start meddling more, but I hope this wave lasts as long as possible.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/6, 7/8

Post by Buscemi2 »

I can't be the only person who noticed how the Thor franchise no longer resembles the original film. It's gone from a Shakespearian action film to a Guardians of the Galaxy clone.

Though after the disaster that was Thor: The Dark World, it shouldn't be surprising.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/6, 7/8

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Actuals:
1.Thor: Love and Thunder $144.2 mil
2.Minions: The Rise of Gru $46.1 mil
3.Top Gun: Maverick $15.5 mil
4.Elvis $11.2 mil
5.Jurassic World Dominion $8.6 mil
6.The Black Phone $7.8 mil
7.Lightyear $3.1 mil
8.Marcel the Shell with Shoes On $322k
9.Mr. Malcolm's List $255k
10.Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $246k

PTA:
1.Thor: Love and Thunder $32,952
2.Minions: The Rise of Gru $10,419
3.Fire of Love $7,472
4.Halleujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song $2,651
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