SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/01
Posted: June 28th, 2022, 3:39 pm
Elvis may have left the building, but he’s still keeping us in the theatres. A fierce battle with the equally leathery Tom Cruise resulted in the King pipping the post, doing it his way, and opening to an impressive $31m. It’s no Bohemian Rhapsody, but do expect an impressive hold. Perhaps not as impressive as Maverick’s magnificent run, which is keeping both the box office and Lockheed Martin in the green. But they weren’t the only winners, with Scott Derrickson horror The Black Phone beating expectations with an impressive $23m opening and ringing in a strong Cinemascore for its genre.
This weekend marks prime box office territory, as families flee to the cinemas to escape their unbearable families over the Independence Day weekend.
The only wide opener is Minions: The Rise of Gru (Universal). This is the second Minions movies and the sixth film in the Despicable Me universe, none of which I’ve seen so my snark is somewhat rudderless here. This prequel sees the little yellow lads destined for claw arcade games help out a young Gru in his first steps to become an evil mastermind. By bumbling into each other in increasingly slapstick ways.
The first Minions film actually outdid predictions and earned $336m, making it the 2nd highest earner of the franchise. These impossibly cute and infinitely marketable creatures are an easy sell for a younger audience who don’t have the attention span for dialogue. However, approach with caution. We all assumed Pixar films are a guaranteed slam-dunk, but two weeks ago Toy Story spin-off Lightyear opened to a disappointing $50m and is failing to hold. Are families concerned about COVID, and sticking to Disney Plus? Well, one could argue Lightyear didn’t feel necessary, and its trailer was frankly awful, so we can assume the Minions will do somewhat better.
I’m going to predict a $75m opening over the 3 days, and a solid hold that would take it to about $220m. That’s the weakest of the franchise, but still strong for our lockdown days. For Ultimate you should see 12 T5 points, 9 PTA points, a low 6s IMDB. For $37 in Ultimate that may be a little steep, as it won’t come close to Thor 4 and the alternative combo of Nope and, let’s say, Bullet Train, could net you more, though they are wild-cards. For $39 in BO it’s a little better, and probably has a stronger multiplier than most films across August and September.
Now for the limited releases…
Mr Malcolm’s List (Bleecker St) is one of those stuffy British rom-coms. Not big enough to be a Love, Actually or similar, but instead what we in the industry call the “grey pound”, meaning a film intended for an older (usually female) audience who just want something gentle. Downton Abbey is the perfect example. This well-reviewed film with some mildly recognisable stars may be designed for the flat-screens in God’s Waiting Room, but if Bleecker St have a similar release strategy to The Duke, expect this to earn a few PTA points this week and maybe next. Worth considering for $4 in Ultimate, but not in BO.
EDIT: Having looked into it, it seems this is coming out in a few hundred theatres this weekend, so forget that PTA potential and skip entirely
On paper, The Forgiven (Roadside Attractions) would be a PTA goldmine, being John Michael McDonagh’s (the less talented of the brothers) latest – the man behind The Guard and Calvary. But this film, starring Ralph Fiennes and Jessica Chastain, about a posh British couple who try to hide a hit-and-run while in Morocco, didn’t wow audiences in Toronto last year, and Roadside may put it out in too many theatres to make it worth it. Avoid, unless it comes out in NY/LA only.
Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song (SPE) is a music doc about the world’s dreariest chanteur, who also happens to be a genius. Focusing on one of his iconic songs (known in my generation through Jeff Buckley’s haunting cover), it features many famous faces. There have been quite a few Cohen docs out already, but Sony Classics is putting this out in LA and NY this weekend. You might see 3-4 PTA points from this, so consider for Ultimate.
Finally, Clara Sola (Oscilloscope) is a Costa Rican drama which played to the 15 people who turned up in Cannes last year, and despite the good reviews it may not be enough to get you anything besides a single PTA point. Perhaps worth filling your slate if you’ve only $2 left in Ultimate.
Predictions for the weekend
1. Minions 2 - $80m
2. Top Gun Maverick: 17m
3. Elvis - $16m
4. Jurassic World Dominion - $14m
5. The Black Phone - $11m
PTA: Minions 2, Hallelujah, Top Gun 2, Elvis, Jurassic World Dominion.
Next week our resident Transformer casts his robotic eye over a mere two films, doc Fire of Love and the billionth MCU film.
This weekend marks prime box office territory, as families flee to the cinemas to escape their unbearable families over the Independence Day weekend.
The only wide opener is Minions: The Rise of Gru (Universal). This is the second Minions movies and the sixth film in the Despicable Me universe, none of which I’ve seen so my snark is somewhat rudderless here. This prequel sees the little yellow lads destined for claw arcade games help out a young Gru in his first steps to become an evil mastermind. By bumbling into each other in increasingly slapstick ways.
The first Minions film actually outdid predictions and earned $336m, making it the 2nd highest earner of the franchise. These impossibly cute and infinitely marketable creatures are an easy sell for a younger audience who don’t have the attention span for dialogue. However, approach with caution. We all assumed Pixar films are a guaranteed slam-dunk, but two weeks ago Toy Story spin-off Lightyear opened to a disappointing $50m and is failing to hold. Are families concerned about COVID, and sticking to Disney Plus? Well, one could argue Lightyear didn’t feel necessary, and its trailer was frankly awful, so we can assume the Minions will do somewhat better.
I’m going to predict a $75m opening over the 3 days, and a solid hold that would take it to about $220m. That’s the weakest of the franchise, but still strong for our lockdown days. For Ultimate you should see 12 T5 points, 9 PTA points, a low 6s IMDB. For $37 in Ultimate that may be a little steep, as it won’t come close to Thor 4 and the alternative combo of Nope and, let’s say, Bullet Train, could net you more, though they are wild-cards. For $39 in BO it’s a little better, and probably has a stronger multiplier than most films across August and September.
Now for the limited releases…
Mr Malcolm’s List (Bleecker St) is one of those stuffy British rom-coms. Not big enough to be a Love, Actually or similar, but instead what we in the industry call the “grey pound”, meaning a film intended for an older (usually female) audience who just want something gentle. Downton Abbey is the perfect example. This well-reviewed film with some mildly recognisable stars may be designed for the flat-screens in God’s Waiting Room, but if Bleecker St have a similar release strategy to The Duke, expect this to earn a few PTA points this week and maybe next. Worth considering for $4 in Ultimate, but not in BO.
EDIT: Having looked into it, it seems this is coming out in a few hundred theatres this weekend, so forget that PTA potential and skip entirely
On paper, The Forgiven (Roadside Attractions) would be a PTA goldmine, being John Michael McDonagh’s (the less talented of the brothers) latest – the man behind The Guard and Calvary. But this film, starring Ralph Fiennes and Jessica Chastain, about a posh British couple who try to hide a hit-and-run while in Morocco, didn’t wow audiences in Toronto last year, and Roadside may put it out in too many theatres to make it worth it. Avoid, unless it comes out in NY/LA only.
Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song (SPE) is a music doc about the world’s dreariest chanteur, who also happens to be a genius. Focusing on one of his iconic songs (known in my generation through Jeff Buckley’s haunting cover), it features many famous faces. There have been quite a few Cohen docs out already, but Sony Classics is putting this out in LA and NY this weekend. You might see 3-4 PTA points from this, so consider for Ultimate.
Finally, Clara Sola (Oscilloscope) is a Costa Rican drama which played to the 15 people who turned up in Cannes last year, and despite the good reviews it may not be enough to get you anything besides a single PTA point. Perhaps worth filling your slate if you’ve only $2 left in Ultimate.
Predictions for the weekend
1. Minions 2 - $80m
2. Top Gun Maverick: 17m
3. Elvis - $16m
4. Jurassic World Dominion - $14m
5. The Black Phone - $11m
PTA: Minions 2, Hallelujah, Top Gun 2, Elvis, Jurassic World Dominion.
Next week our resident Transformer casts his robotic eye over a mere two films, doc Fire of Love and the billionth MCU film.