SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/14

[Shrykespeare]

And bang, zoom, just like that, the summer is off and rolling. Iron Man 2 kicked off the season with better than $130 million in its first three days, on its way to a very likely $300 million output. I myself enjoyed it, though not QUITE as much as the first installment... I will now wait with baited breath while Marvel Studios continues its Avengers storyline with Thor (which will be 2011's summer leadoff hitter). Damn, a whole 'nother year to wait...

In the meantime, there are new movies to talk about; specifically, a trio of wide-release films and another trio of limited-release films all coming out on Friday, May 14th. Not only is there another big-budget action film, but we'll see the summer's first bit of counter-programming, as a romantic comedy and a romantic drama give audiences some different choices, which is completely necessary now that all of the April releases have dipped below $10 million.

If you had to name the most famous “characters” of all time, who would be on your list? It could be someone completely fictional, or perhaps an actual person from history whose tales have been embellished to the point where they have become legend. One might suggest Sherlock Holmes, Jack the Ripper, Jesse James, Billy the Kid, Dracula, or even Odysseus. And it would be very likely that Robin Hood would be on that list somewhere.

The story of the most famous medieval folk hero of all time, bar none, has been made into a full-fledged movie no fewer than eight times since the birth of cinema – two of them animated – and countless other times on the small screen. He has been played by the likes of Douglas Fairbanks, Errol Flynn, Sean Connery, Kevin Costner and Cary Elwes (who can speak with an English accent, don't'cha know). Well, as of this week, you can add Aussie Russell Crowe to the list.

This makes the fifth collaboration between Crowe and veteran director Ridley Scott, who worked together on the Oscar-winning Gladiator as well as American Gangster and Body of Lies. The script/screenplay was written by another veteran, Brian Helgeland, who penned such hits as L.A. Confidential and Mystic River (not to mention this past spring's Green Zone and the upcoming Salt). That is a potent combination.

You all know the story. In 12th-century England, Sir Robin Longstride (Crowe) returns home from the Crusades to find that his homeland is being ruled with an iron fist by King John (Oscar Isaac) and his minion, the Sheriff of Nottingham (Matthew Macfadyen). Unsatisfied with the current system of government, he, along with his band of “merry men”, become outlaws, robbing the king blind at every opportunity in an effort to restore order.

You remember the supporting characters: Little John (Kevin Durand), Friar Tuck (Mark Addy), Will Scarlet (Scott Grimes), and, of course, Robin's lady fair, Maid Marian (Oscar winner Cate Blanchett). The ever-busy Mark Strong (Sherlock Holmes, Kick-Ass) is also present as Sir Godfrey, King John's evil henchman. William Hurt, Max von Sydow and Danny Huston round out the cast.

The question must be raised: can Universal really hope to compete with the likes of Iron Man 2 and Shrek Forever After, which are both practically shoo-ins for $300 million? Up until last year's Star Trek, the second week of May has been habitually unkind to all who dared to snap that spot up (Speed Racer, Poseidon, George Rule, and on and on). But having said that, Robin Hood has been one of the most beloved characters in film for that last century, and I don't expect Ridley Scott's Robin Hood to flop.

Of course, I don't expect it to exactly set the box office ablaze, either. It will debut in significantly fewer locations (just over 3,400) than Iron Man 2 did (a whopping 4,380). And while I expect IM2 to suffer the customary 45-50% drop in its second week, that won't be enough to knock it from its #1 perch. I will peg Robin Hood to easily take the #2 spot with about $44 million in its first three days.

This title will run you $24 in both the May Ultimate and May Box Office leagues. And while I am quite looking forward to seeing this film, with its reputedly much grittier, in-the-trenches (Gladiator-esque, even) take on the legend, there's just too much going on around it. I expect it to crack $100 million easily, but probably not by much, and not enough to recommend it. That is too much to spend for only eight Top 5 points and a few PTA. There are titles in June that can give you stats that are just as good or better, and for less money (A-Team and Knight & Day, for example).

Up next we have Letters to Juliet, which will be bowing on roughly 2,800 screens this Friday. It stars Amanda Seyfried (Dear John, Chloe) as Sophie, a winsome young journalist who travels to the city of Verona, Italy, which just happened to be the setting for Shakespeare's “Romeo and Juliet”.

At one of the city's most famous attractions – a wall where hundreds of love letters are left by women from all over in the hopes that the spirit of Juliet will bring them their one true love – Sophie finds one particular letter left 50 years earlier by a woman named Claire Smith, who had traveled to Verona in search of her long-lost love. Clearly in need of adventure (and a story), she seeks to unite the couple half a century later. Directed by Gary Winick (Charlotte's Web, Bride Wars), Letters to Juliet also stars Gael Garcia Bernal as well as veteran actors Franco Nero and Vanessa Redgrave. It looks like a perfectly feasible date movie, but I have two major problems that keep me from recommending it.

First of all, there's the trailer, which commits the capital sin of trailer-making... namely, it outlays the whole damned story in the space of under three minutes. Seriously, all you need to know about that film is in that trailer, so why would you need to waste ten bucks and two hours of your life? The other thing is, early reviews have been terrible. It has a current RT score of 33% on 2/6 reviews, which, to put it mildly, sucks.

Emmanuel Levy calls Juliet “severely flawed from both narrative and dramatic standpoints” and expects that the film “will be dismissed by most critics”. Can't argue with that. Romantic though it may be, it also seems trite and contrived, something that ended up in Nicholas Sparks' wastebasket. It's only $11 (in both leagues), but for four Top 5 points, maybe one or two PTA tops, and a Rating in the mid-6's, I have to believe you can find better (for example, Killers costs exactly the same and is being advertised out the wazoo).

You are not going to find very many wide-release films that will run you only $6, so pay attention. Yes, Just Wright is only being shown in 1,800 locations. Yes, Fox Searchlight is not known for its box office success (Notorious, Whip It, Fantastic Mr. Fox, Our Family Wedding, even Crazy Heart only made $40 million despite its Best Actor-winning performance from Jeff Bridges). But still, films with largely African-American casts do tend to do pretty well, even in the summer. Heck, if Death at a Funeral could make $40 million, this one sure can!

But Just Wright has gotten lots of advertising, and why not? It stars Queen Latifah as Leslie Wright, a physical therapist who gets the career-building chance of a lifetime when she is tasked with nursing NBA All-Star Scott McKnight (Common) back to health following a big injury. However, in doing so, she starts to develop feelings for him, despite the machinations of his gold-digging trophy wife (Paula Patton) who is one of Leslie's childhood friends. Pam Grier, Laz Alonso and Phylicia Rashad co-stars, and a whole host of real NBA players have cameos.

Though Queen Latifah is not my favorite actress, she has more than enough personality, charm and humor to carry a film, and though I don't expect Just Wright to break any records, I really do think it will do well for its release platform. I cannot recommend grabbing it in Ultimate, however... it will only bring you two Top 5 points (probably), two PTA (maybe), and a bad-to-average User Rating. I would definitely grab it in Box Office, however, if you are looking for something to fill that final slot and have only a few bucks left to spend. Like I said, you're not going to find anything wide-release that is this cheap until the last two weeks of the season.

And now, about about this week's three limited-release films:

Looking For Eric ($4 Ult) – Recommending films for PTA purposes is the toughest part of my “job”, but it's hard to find anything that might preclude picking this title. It's gotten stellar reviews (41/46 positive reviews at RT for 89%), has a very good rating (7.3 with nearly 4,000 votes), and is debuting in only two locations this Friday. Put that together, and I think you have a winner.

The main character is Eric Bishop, a postman and English football fanatic whose life is beginning a painful downward spiral. His son has fallen in with gangsters, and his ex-wife, who he abandoned after giving birth to their child, has saddled him with caring for his granddaughter. Despondent and possibly suicidal, he attempts meditation, bringing forth hallucinations of his hero, the legendary and deeply philosophical football star Eric Cantona. (The conversations between the two Erics are reportedly the highlights of the film.)

Obviously, this is my PTA pick of the week.

Go Get Some Rosemary (aka Daddy Longlegs) ($3 Ult) – This film made its debut at the 2009 Cannes Film Festival. Directed by New-York based brothers Josh and Benny Safdie, the story is centered on Lenny (Ronald Bronstein), a divorced father and projectionist at a Manhattan movie theater, and the two weeks he spends with his young sons Sage and Frey.

Being divorced, these two weeks is all Lenny has with his boys for the entire year, so he must find a way to juggle the rest of his life together with cramming six months worth of living into that too-brief period, which will feature an array of strange, wonderful and ordinary things that you can only find in indie films. (Yeah, sorry, I can't find any reviews on this film or any synopses longer than a paragraph).

BOM only has this film bowing on one screen, and that can often be very good for PTA. For $3, it might be worth the gamble. The User Rating probably won't hurt you too much (it's currently at 7.0 with 105 votes), so there's that.

Princess Kauilani ($2 Ult) – As promising as Looking For Eric is, this film looks exactly the opposite to me. It stars Q'orianka Kilcher (remember her from The New World?), the Swiss-Peruvian actress who grew up in Germany as the titular Kaulani, who was one of the last heirs to the throne of Hawaii in the late 19th century.

The movie chronicles the very short (only 25 years) of Kaulani's life, from her childhood to her education in Victorian England, to her adulthood when she returned to Hawaii (which was still its own sovereignty at the time)during a time of turmoil, when the royal family is overthrown and Kaiulani must petition the United States to help her restore power.

Regardless of the fact that the events in this movie are historically accurate or not, I just don't see anything about this film that strikes me as worthy of inclusion. It's only gotten a so-so Rating (6.8 with 121 votes), and I would honestly be shocked if it produced any PTA points at all.


My predictions for the weekend of May 14-16, 2010:

1. Iron Man 2 - $68 million
2. Robin Hood - $44 million
3. Letters to Juliet - $17 million
4. Just Wright - $11 million
5. How to Train Your Dragon - $4 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, the epic saga of the most famous ogre in animated film history comes to an (alleged) end, as Shrek Forever After hits theaters in glorious 3D; Will Forte brings his SNL sketch MacGruber to big-screen life; and I'll also talk about the prospects of limited-release features Perrier's Bounty, Holy Rollers and Kites.

Later!

[Buscemi]

I'm betting that Just Wright outopens Letters To Juliet. The two movies split their audiences but I've seen way more ads for Just Wright than Letters To Juliet (hell, I haven't even seen a single trailer for Letters To Juliet attached to anything). Also, Queen Latifah is a stronger box office draw than Amanda Seyfried (whose last two films where she had above-title billing, both produced by Jason Reitman, have flopped).

And wow, Scott Grimes in Robin Hood? I never expected to see the son from Critters and American Dad in an action film.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

After you had the closest numbers of anyone on the Internet on Iron Man's OW, I'm kinda scared to refute your predictions, Shryke....

[W]

I'm saying:

1. Iron Man
2. Robin Hood
3. Just Wright
4. Letters to Juliet
5. Dragon

[J.I.]

Man you really beat me on those predictions last weekend Shryke.

I won't argue with these numbers because I do see Robin Hood going that high.

[Buscemi]

Reviews have been mixed so far on Robin Hood. And not helping things is the fact that Ridley Scott won't be able to promote the film (he is recovering from knee replacement surgery and was unable to attend the premiere at Cannes as a result).

Interestingly enough, most of the film's appeal seems to be with women which could either lead to Robin Hood overperforming and the romantic titles flopping or all three films splitting their audiences.

Anyways, I will predict on the openers:

Robin Hood $25 million (women + typical male audience = average opener for May)
Just Wright $14 million (women + urban crowd + Queen Latifah's appeal = good opening for a May programmer)
Letters To Juliet $10 million (women - men - lack of advertising or star power = disappointing opening for Summit)

Also, let's see how Letters To Juliet did in previews on Sunday.

882 theatres sneak previewed Letters To Juliet with Furry Vengeance on Sunday. Furry Vengeance did $1.9 million on Sunday at 3,002 theatres for a 13% jump from Saturday (where it grossed $1.6 million). Assuming that on any other Sunday Furry Vengeance dropped 20% on Sunday (the drop estimate on How To Train Your Dragon and Clash Of The Titans this week), the number would be at $1.28 million.

So it looks like that Letters To Juliet grossed $620,000 in previews from 882 theatres for a PTA of $703. Assuming that $7.50 is the average ticket price, Letters To Juliet had an average crowd of 94 people per showing. Not very favorable.

[transformers2]

Here are my predictions for This Weekend
1.Iron Man 2-$61 Mill
2.Robin Hood 33 Mill
3.Just Wright 12 Mill
4.Letters To Juilet 9 Mill
5.How To Train Your Dragon 4 Mill

Robin Hood should have a pretty good opening but nothing too crazy because the story has been done a millon times and I think people are kind of sick of it.

Just Wright should do ok. It being promoted heavily during playoff basketball. I say it outgrosses Letters To Juilet.

Also I predict Nightmare on Elm Street drops another 60-70% this week.

[becs]

I'd never even heard of Just Wright till popping into this thread, it looks pretty good for a chick flick though, thats for sure.

[Shrykespeare]

BOM's Sunday Estimates:

Top 5
5 points - Iron Man 2, $53M (down 58.6%)
4 points - Robin Hood, $37.1M
3 points - Letters to Juliet, $13.75M
2 points - Just Wright, $8.5M
1 point - How to Train Your Dragon, $5.1M

So pretty much everything was considerably lower than I estimated, including a bigger drop for IM2 than expected.

PTA
5 points - Iron Man 2
4 points - Robin Hood
3 points - Please Give
2 points - Princess Kaiulani
1 point - Just Wright

No word yet on Go Get Some Rosemary or Looking For Eric. And wow, Princess Kaiulani was game after all. And how about the gold mine Please Give is turning out to be?


User Ratings
Robin Hood - 7.4
Letters to Juliet - 6.3
Just Wright - 4.7
Looking For Eric - 7.3
Go Get Some Rosemary - 7.0
Princess Kaiulani - 6.8

[Buscemi]

I actually expected nothing from Letters To Juliet. Amanda Seyfried is a hard sell (Dear John was mostly a success because of Channing Tatum and Nicholas Sparks while Mamma Mia was more successful because of the play), the director was responisible for the universally hated underperformer Bride Wars and I hadn't seen any ads for it (other than the Internet). Maybe Summit tied it in with Twilight or something.

Also, A Nightmare On Elm Street looks like it will actually pass Friday the 13th despite worse word of mouth and reviews. If that happens, who wants to bet that the Friday the 13th series is over as a result.

[undeadmonkey]

Actually the sequel was scrapped over a month ago already

[Buscemi]

However it was said that it may return in some way. Often in horror, dead is never really dead. It's just in hiding.

[undeadmonkey]

but another franchise that might or might not marginally do more business than another film will make it 'dead'?

[Buscemi]

Hollywood is a numbers game. Whatever makes more money gets more opportunities. However, there have been exceptions to the rule (such as The Sisterhood Of The Traveling Pants getting a theatrical sequel but the higher grossing Dukes Of Hazzard only got a prequel that went straight-to-DVD).

[W]

Hollywood is a numbers game. Whatever makes more money gets more opportunities. However, there have been exceptions to rule (such as The Sisterhood Of The Traveling Pants getting a theatrical sequel but the higher grossing Dukes Of Hazzard only got a prequel that went straight-to-DVD).

My thinking is that a second Dukes movie would have cost a lot to make and STP2 cost only $27 M.