SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILM OF 5/06

[numbersix]

I would report on last week’s box office, but there was nothing to report. Either distributors are still suffering from the impact of COVID, and are reluctant to saturate the public with too many options, or else Tom Cruise and his Scientologist minions threatened every rival studio to run yelping into the distant future. Either way, no film got a true wide release, with only Cronenberg’s Crimes of the Future (such as ipad coveting? NFT harassment?) and IFC thriller Watcher coming close… and failing miserably to even near the Top 5. The good news is the Cruise, whose deeply unironic sequel Top Gun 2 (sadly lacking the full-on male penetration promised by its original) is holding hard, dropping only 29% in its second weekend, making it one of the strongest holds of all time for a super-wide release.

This week sees a major contender take on Tom. By creatures almost as ancient.




Jurassic World Dominion (Universal) is the third in the new sequel trilogy, and the sixth feature film in the Jurassic Park franchise. Jurassic World blew expectations away when it opened to a colossal $208m in 2015 and held on tight to earn $600m (but still getting crushed like a bug by Star Wars). Acting as a sequel to the first three film, it introduced a whole new set of characters, a few familiar dinosaurs, and a new depth of unoriginality. Its sequel, Fallen Kingdom, earned a little less but still grossed $1.3b worldwide. Dominion probably has a plot, but I doubt it. From the trailers it seems dinosaurs now roam the world, miraculously not running amok through cities to devour us tasty, overweight humans. World heroes Owen (Chris Pratt) and Claire (Bryce Dallas Howard) once again join forces to help address the balance between humans and XXL lizards.

Being the third film in a trilogy, one would expect diminishing returns. Fallen Kingdom didn’t exactly seem to excite audiences or critics, leaving a bad taste in their collective mouths, and possibly ruining the appetite for further films. But good ol Hollywood has one last weapon in its bag of wizened tricks: nostalgia. And so joining the new heroes are pretty much all the ones left from the first film: Laura Dern as earnest Ellie Sattler, Sam Neill as reluctant leader Alan Grant, and Jeff Goldblum as wise-cracking chaos theorist Ian Malcolm. If you look at the trailers, the plot is secondary to the big, pseudo-Spielbergian close-ups of the faces of those we loved all the back in the early 90s. Just like we all seem to have convinced ourselves that Top Gun was actually good, so now will we assume this will be a better film because of those old familiar faces, gathering together for the first time since 1993. It’s genius if it wasn’t so predictable and morally bankrupt.

Taste aside, how will the dinos fare in the box office? The film opened in a few territories last weekend, notably Mexico, Brazil, Italy, and South Korea. And each one reported a higher opening that the previous two films, suggesting that people are flocking like hungry pterodactyls for a conclusion (which presumably won’t happen as a new film, and perhaps trilogy, is in the works). In the US the film is opening alone, and audiences had nothing new last week, so may be starved of entertainment, particularly families not into the SuperCruise. It should open higher than the previous film’s $148m but less than World’s $208. Early reviews are positive but expect that RT score to drop to mediocre levels by Friday, and word of mouth may not be great. Yet, with the only competition this month being animation Lightyear and biopic Elvis, this may perform by default. A $190m opening and a final cume of about $450m feels about right. Does that make it worth it, especially at the heft costs of $44 in BO and $40 in Ultimately. Well, only if you missed out on Dr Strange 2 and Top Gun 2. It should earn $400m by the end of the month and end up with 13 T5 points, 8 PTA points, and a mid 6 IMDB score.



Predictions for the weekend

1. Jurassic World Dominion - $190m
2. Top Gun Maverick - $55m
3. Dr Strange 2 - $4m
4. The Bad Guys - $2.2m
5. Bob’s Burgers - $2.1m


PTA: Jurassic World 3, Top Gun 2, Phantom of the Open, anyone’s guess



Next week sees the release of Toy Story spin-off Lightyear, along with indie Official Competition, and one of my most anticipated films of the summer, sci-fi comedy Brian and Charles.

[Shrykespeare]

You crack me up, dude. I actually liked Top Gun: Maverick. I'm not even going to waste my time on another JP flick.

[Buscemi2]

You might want to retract that comment on early reviews being positive. Critics are trashing Dominion. Metacritic is currently a 38.

And the potentially bloated messes look to only keep going. Nope has a reported run time of 145 minutes.

[numbersix]

Yeah, the reviews are awful, and that will have an impact on the film's hold. Big opening, but big drop.

Also, disappointing to hear Nope is that long. So many films pushing past the 2 hour mark but not deserving it. I loved the first half of Everything Everywhere but the second half needed 20 mins cut from it, and that would have made it a modern classic.

[Buscemi2]

It's like no one can tell a story in a certain amount of time anymore. They tell us that attention spans are getting longer but if that's true, why aren't movies under an hour? Movies are getting longer and even episodes of TV shows are now longer than some movies.

Earlier, I was watching the original Westworld and that was under 90 minutes. Nowadays, that would run nearly two and a half hours with no additions to the story. Do we need that long action sequence that adds nothing to the story? Or a significant amount of screen time to a character that exists solely to get killed off? But in the end, it's all about money and longer movies are the ones that make the most money, end if something could have lost an hour.

[transformers2]

Are there plenty of movies across the history of the medium that end being burdened by their overlong run time? Of course. Could you argue that this problem has gotten worse in recent years? Absolutely. But this widely subscribed to belief that movies are somehow getting significantly longer and/or the volume of long movies is significantly increasing is fucking absurd. Take a few minutes to thumb through the decades-spanning IMDb 250 and you'll find a lot more films that run for 2+ hours than 90 minutes.

This take has been so widely pedaled recently that I decided a few weeks ago that I was going to keep track of the running times of every 2022 movie I see to get a sense of average running times, how many movies clear 2 hours, etc. As of the end of last week, the data was as followed:
41 movies watched
Longest: The Batman (176 minutes)
Shortest: Texas Chainsaw Massacre (81 minutes)
Number of Titles That Exceeded 2 Hours in Length: 11 (The 355, The Worst Person in the World, Moonfall, The Batman, The Bubble, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Sonic the Hedgehog 2, Ambulance, The Northman, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Top Gun: Maverick)
Number of Titles That Were 90 minutes or shorter: 3(KIMI, Texas Chainsaw Massacre, On the Count of Three)
Average runtime: 110.6 minutes


Lastly, tickets for Nope went on sale today and the running time listed on AMC's site is 2 hours and 15 minutes.

[Buscemi2]

The difference between 135 to 145 minutes isn't much. It's still likely too long for something like this. Besides, that ten minute difference could be credits.

And throughout much of film history, only the biggest or most prestigious films ran over two hours for a variety of reasons (fewer screens leading to the need to have more showtimes to maximize profit, many theatres running double or triple bills, etc.). Some directors could get the leeway to go over two hours but that power could be lost if the film failed (case in point: Heaven's Gate).

The issue that I have is that the increase in length does not justify the story. If the length was beneficial, I wouldn't mind it (a good example being The Irishman, as while it's three-and-a-half hours, feels much shorter thanks to a fascinating plot and excellent editing). But most of the time, it feels as if longer movies exist solely for monetary gain. No one understands brevity anymore. It's all about dollar signs.

Since you brought up The Batman, let's compare it to Batman Returns. Batman Returns covers very similar ground but is 50 minutes shorter and doesn't lag while The Batman is far too long. Batman Returns is also a better-made film but that's for another argument.

[Buscemi2]

Looks like audiences are more accepting of Dominion, as the Cinemascore was an A-, below the original and Jurassic World's A but the same as Fallen Kingdom's A- and above The Lost World's B+ and Jurassic Park III's B-.

[transformers2]

The PostTrak exits weren't as generous (3.5/5 stars), but it's still evident that the audience reception isn't in line with the critical consensus.

Now that I've seen it, I'm sincerely puzzled by Dominion getting significantly more critical backlash than Fallen Kingdom. It's in the same vein as the other Jurassic World movies, it's just a bit less melodramatic and a bit more fan service-y (and honestly the nods to the original are pretty tame by legacy sequel standards).

[Buscemi2]

Friday numbers:

1. Jurassic World: Dominion $59.6 million
2. Top Gun: Maverick $14.1 million
3. Doctor Strange $1.4 million
4. The Bob's Burgers Movie $0.7 million
5. The Bad Guys $0.7 million (separated by $38,000)
6. Downton Abbey: A New Era $0.5 million
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once $0.4 million
8. Firestarter $0.3 million (returning to the top ten as a result of a drive-in bump, paired with Dominion as a second feature)
9. Ante Sundharanki $0.2 million
10. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $0.2 million (separated by $23,000)

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Jurassic World Dominion $143.4 mil
Top Gun: Maverick $50 mil
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $4.9 mil
The Bob's Burgers Movie $2.3 mil
The Bad Guys $2.2 mil
Downton Abbey: A New Era $1.7 mil
Everything Everywhere All at Once $1.3 mil
Firestarter $820k
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $710k
Ante Sundharanaki $620k

[Chienfantome]

I honestly thought JW would open a bit lower. It still won't be enough to go get $400M in the end, probably.

[numbersix]

I overestimated that opening just a tad.

But it got a strong cinemascore - stronger than I expected - so it could hold fine. 350-400m is still what it will end up making.

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.Jurassic World Dominion $145.1 mil
2.Top Gun: Maverick $51.9 mil
3.Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $5.2 mil
4.The Bad Guys $2.53 mil
5.The Bob's Burgers Movie $2.47 mil
6.Downton Abbey: A New Era $1.8 mil
7.Everything Everywhere All at Once $1.3 mil
8.Firestarter $833k
9.Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $751k
10.Ante Sundharaniki $620k

PTA:
1.Jurassic World Dominion $31,025
2.Top Gun: Maverick $12,166
3.Firestarter $5,555
4.Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $1,559
5.The Phantom of the Open $1,487

Notes:
-Top Gun: Maverick will pass Doctor Strange as the highest grossing movie of 2022 today.
-Dominion's opening ended up being just under $3 mil lower than Fallen Kingdom. Will be interesting to see if they can post similar multipliers (Fallen Kingdom finished its run with $416.8 mil)
-Firestarter earning its first PTA points a month after its release is hilarious. Thanks for the laugh drive-in theaters!