Screening The Releases - June 3rd

[Screen203]

Last Week

In what is IMO the most shocking opening since Deadpool, Top Gun: Maverick volleyed a massive 126 m over the 3 day, and 160 m over the 4 day, breaking the Memorial Day record. In second place, Doctor Strange... had another questionable hold, dropping 50% to 16 m over the 3 day and 20 m over the 4 day. In third, the movie with the most obnoxious trailer of the year- and possibly of all time - (The Bob's Burgers Movie) had a rather front-loaded weekend, grossing 12 m for the 3 day and just under 15 m for the 4 day off of a nearly 6 m opening day. Speaking of front-loaded TV adaptations, seemingly everyone except me who wanted to see the Crowley family go to France rushed out last weekend, as Downton Abbey: A New Era dropped a huge 64% to about 5.5 m over the 3 day, and 7 m over the 4 day. In fifth, The Bad Guys continued to hold on, almost by default as the only option in the marketplace for families with young children, making about 4.5 m for the 3 day and about 5.5 m for the 4 day. There were no major releases on the arthouse scene, as films like Downton Abbey and Men were released wide right away.

This Week, however, changes things...

There are no wide releases in the April-June Leagues. However, I did want to mention David Cronenberg's return to the sci-fi body horror genre for the first time since 1999's underrated eXistenZ. I don't expect it to do much (I chose it as a last resort pick), but I thought it was worth mentioning due to its pedigree (Viggo Mortensen, Kristin Stewart, and Lea Seydoux).

Limited Releases

The Phantom Of The Open



I initially thought this could be a minor sleeper hit. It has solid reviews, a good cast led by Mark Rylance and Sally Hawkins, and a decent trailer. Buzz is just so low, though. It dosen't help that though a lot of people love playing golf, it's not well known a successful translation to the big screen, with the only two films about golf most would be able to name (Caddyshack and Happy Gilmore) being comedies not really focused on the sport.

Of the options this week, it is probably the best option, but I wouldn't take it in Box Office, and I would think twice before putting it in Ultimate.

It will get you 1-2 PTA points, and a 7 on IMDb.

Watcher



Don't expect much from this, despite the initial buzz from Sundance. I feel like most limited releases seem to be the same these days; they are usually horror/thriller films, usually distributed by IFC, and almost always released semi-wide. Despite a good trailer, I don't see many going out to see it, especially when Crimes Of The Future is aiming for the exact same (very niche) audience.

I wouldn't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

It will get you 0 PTA points and a 6 on IMDb.

Eiffel



Honestly, I had never heard of this one before. While a romantic biopic about the creation of the famed tower sounds interesting on paper, this has not been pushed at all.

In short, don't take this in Box Office or Ultimate.

It will net you 0 PTA points and a 6 on IMDb

Top 5

Top Gun: Maverick - 70 m
Doctor Strange... - 10 m
The Bob's Burgers Movie - 5 m
The Bad Guys - 4 m
Downton Abbey: A New Era - 3 m

PTA

Top Gun: Maverick
Doctor Strange...
Everything, Everywhere, All At Once
The Phantom Of The Open
The Bob's Burgers Movie

Join six next week for coverage of what will probably be the year's biggest film - Jurassic World: Dominion.

[transformers2]

Top Gun honestly might be able to pull off a sub-50% hold. It's numbers from Tuesday ($15.8 mil) and yesterday ($14.8 mil) are exceptional.

[Buscemi2]

Top Gun also had an A+ Cinemascore. Not sure how much of that was nostalgia but it should hold well with no major openers until Jurassic World: Is This Really Going to Be the Last One?.

[Chienfantome]

Well, Top Gun Maverick seems en route for a minimal drop in its 2nd weekend, posting numbers that were expected for its first weekend, above $80M.
The sky's the limit now. It will cross 300M in a couple of days. 400M will be a formality, and the aim is now at $500M. The film isn't a huge success anymore, it's a phenomenon.
Jurassic will drop a shadow next weekend, but from what I've heard from the French press screenings, the film is a catastrophe, so it won't go as high as the first two.

[Buscemi2]

I can't understand how Colin Trevorrow got so many chances from Universal. He's a hack who got lucky with one film and he's also the idiot responsible for making 2:1 a popular shooting format.

[numbersix]

He's also a notorious asshole, from people who have worked with him.

[Buscemi2]

A lot of mumblecore filmmakers seem to be. I have to imagine no one has anything good to say about Joe Swanberg unless it's Joe Swanberg saying those things.

[transformers2]

Well, Top Gun Maverick seems en route for a minimal drop in its 2nd weekend, posting numbers that were expected for its first weekend, above $80M.
The sky's the limit now. It will cross 300M in a couple of days. 400M will be a formality, and the aim is now at $500M. The film isn't a huge success anymore, it's a phenomenon.
Jurassic will drop a shadow next weekend, but from what I've heard from the French press screenings, the film is a catastrophe, so it won't go as high as the first two.

Regardless of how the reviews turn out, it would be pretty surprising if it couldn't at least pass Fallen Kingdom. The Neil/Dern/Goldblum reunion and its billing as the final Jurassic Park movie should be a strong enough hook to bring people out and get it to somewhere between $450-500 mil.

As for Top Gun, this shit is indeed a full-blown phenomenon. When was the last time that people were this overwhelmingly smitten with a blockbuster? Return of the King? The Dark Knight? Avengers: Infinity War/Endgame?

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Top Gun: Maverick $86 mil (if this sticks when the numbers become official, it will top Shrek 2 for the smallest ever drop by a movie that had a $100 mil+ OW)
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $9.3 mil
The Bob's Burgers Movie $4.5 mil
The Bad Guys $3.3 mil
Downton Abbey: A New Era $3 mil
Everything Everywhere All at Once $2 mil
Vikram $1.8 mil
Sonic the Hedgehog $1.7 mil
The Lost City $1.4 mil
Crimes of the Future $1.1 mil

[Buscemi2]

Watcher also flopped this weekend with a dismal $815,000 in 764 theatres. This shouldn't have been a wide release.

[Chienfantome]

Regardless of how the reviews turn out, it would be pretty surprising if it couldn't at least pass Fallen Kingdom. The Neil/Dern/Goldblum reunion and its billing as the final Jurassic Park movie should be a strong enough hook to bring people out and get it to somewhere between $450-500 mil.

As for Top Gun, this shit is indeed a full-blown phenomenon. When was the last time that people were this overwhelmingly smitten with a blockbuster? Return of the King? The Dark Knight? Avengers: Infinity War/Endgame?

I don't know about Jurassic World. Now today there was a run of previews ahead of the wednesday release here in France, and even with the fan audience, the word of mouth is abysmal. The tweets are destroying the film, and when I say destoying, I mean destroying.
I'm sure the film will start with a bang at the US box-office, somewhere along the lines of Top Gun Maverick or even Doctor Strange. But the film will drop, hard and fast.
I wouldn't be surprised if the film failed to reach 400M.

[Screen203]

Watcher also flopped this weekend with a dismal $815,000 in 764 theatres. This shouldn't have been a wide release.

I don't think it did that bad, considering how small-scale of a release it was, and the lack of marketing/buzz (at least in comparison to Crimes Of The Future).

I can't believe how well Top Gun is doing. I think it will be the biggest film of the summer (it dosen't seem like Jurassic World - especially if the reaction is as poor across the board as it seems to be in France - or Lightyear will do more than 400 m, and Thor probably won't be able to go beyond 450), depending on if it can keep holds like these. I doubt it goes number one for the year, though, as Black Panther and maybe Avatar will outgross it.

[Buscemi2]

I saw trailers for Watcher on a number of films and there were themed ads on Fandango, which are usually only reserved for the biggest movies. In addition, this was one of IFC's widest releases ever.

Putting it in over 700 theatres made no sense. This should have been a streaming-only title, considering how it was picked up by Shudder.

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.Top Gun Maverick $90.0 mil (-29%, which is officially a new record for best ever hold by a movie that had a $100+ mil OW)
2.Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $9.2 mil
3.The Bob's Burgers Movie $4.6 mil
4.The Bad Guys $3.3 mil
5.Downton Abbey: A New Era $3.2 mil
6.Everything Everywhere All at Once $2.0 mil (up to $60.5+ mil now)
7.Vikram $1.8 mil
8.Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $1.7 mil
9.The Lost City $1.4 mil
10.Crimes of the Future $1.1 mil

11.Watcher $827k (new record OW for an IFC Midnight release)

PTA:
1.Top Gun: Maverick $18,951
2.The Phantom of the Open $4,262
3.Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $2,436
4.The Lost City $1,685
5.Uncharted $1,565

[transformers2]

Regardless of how the reviews turn out, it would be pretty surprising if it couldn't at least pass Fallen Kingdom. The Neil/Dern/Goldblum reunion and its billing as the final Jurassic Park movie should be a strong enough hook to bring people out and get it to somewhere between $450-500 mil.

As for Top Gun, this shit is indeed a full-blown phenomenon. When was the last time that people were this overwhelmingly smitten with a blockbuster? Return of the King? The Dark Knight? Avengers: Infinity War/Endgame?

I don't know about Jurassic World. Now today there was a run of previews ahead of the wednesday release here in France, and even with the fan audience, the word of mouth is abysmal. The tweets are destroying the film, and when I say destoying, I mean destroying.
I'm sure the film will start with a bang at the US box-office, somewhere along the lines of Top Gun Maverick or even Doctor Strange. But the film will drop, hard and fast.
I wouldn't be surprised if the film failed to reach 400M.

Good chance you end up being correct if the WOM proves to be that bad, but I'm going to stubbornly stick to my $450-500 mil estimate until it's proven wrong (which will likely be by the end of next weekend )