Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/20

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Marvel fans seem to be mad about the Multiverse.

The combination of people rushing out on OW to avoid spoilers and comparatively poor WOM for an MCU project caused Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness to tumble 67% ($61.7 mil) in weekend #2. Despite all the postmortems from the trade sites saying that this is some kind of warning sign that the MCU might be in trouble long-term, Multiverse of Madness is still going to clear $400 mil with ease and finish somewhere in the top 10 of highest grossing MCU titles thus far-which is the type of haul that Disney sure as hell won't be mad with at the end of the day.

Firestarter-which remarkably opened in 3,412 theaters-failed to ignite much interest among moviegoers as it limped to a paltry $3.8 mil start. Remarkably, that total was only $100k more than fellow R-rated Blumhouse production Freaky made during its OW in November 2020 where theaters across the US and Canada were either virtually empty or closed altogether. Universal and Jason Blum have got to be excited that they can finally move on to promoting The Black Phone now that this dud has been put out to pasture.

Evangelical family film Family Camp didn't fare much better than Firestarter on the PTA front as it only mustered $1.4 mil from 854 theaters, which was good enough for the #9 spot. Anybody who considered taking this at the end of full year draft will probably breathe a sigh of relief after seeing this dismal result.

On the limited front, porn industry drama Pleasure and well-reviewed Western family drama Montana Story got off to half-decent starts by posting $8,184 and $4,321 PTA hauls respectively. The full theater counts of their expansions this weekend aren't available at this time, but Pleasure seems like a much better bet to contend for additional PTA points this weekend solely on the fact that its an unrated film that can only be shown in certain theaters.

Wide Releases:
Older audiences have proven to be the only demographic that hasn't returned to the theaters in droves for anything during the pandemic. They didn't show up for any of the crowd-pleasing Best Picture contenders. They didn't show up for The Last Duel or Cry Macho. Not even No Time to Die could get old Ester and Cornelius to go to the cinema. Will Downton Abbey: A New Era (Focus) change that? The distributors and theater owners sure hope so.

The second film continuation of the hit ITV/PBS show has posted solid numbers in its native UK to date ($12.9 mil through 3 weekends), but those numbers aren't good enough to inspire confidence that this will be a big hit. In fact, the early returns from the UK, France, Australia, Germany and Italy indicate that it could end up grossing 40 to 50% less than the original did back ($96.8 mil domestic/$192.1 worldwide) in 2019. A finish in line with the global numbers domestically would be another big blow to the hopes that 55+ audiences will be comfortable with returning to theaters at any point during the pandemic.

Whether A New Era will be able to buck this global trend will remain a mystery until at least Friday morning as its the type of film that isn't going to generate significant advance ticket sales, but it's hard to look at the overseas numbers and come away feeling confident about its chances of putting up great numbers at the box office.

Prices: $14 ULT/$16 BO
Predictions: $16-23 mil opening/6-12 Top 5/3-8 PTA/$45-75 mil total BO/low to mid 7 IMDB
Worth Putting It on Your Slate?: The holds will determine just how much bang for your buck it will provide you, but it'll likely be a pretty solid mid-priced option in both formats.



After a brief foray into the world of television with Devs, Alex Garland is bringing his brand of mindfuckery back to the cinematic form with Men (A24). His third credited directorial effort focuses on an Irish woman named Harper (Jessie Buckley) seeking a reprieve from the immense pain her husband's (Paapa Essiedu) unexpected suicide has brought her by taking a vacation to a secluded location in the English countryside. Harper's hopes for a brief break from her trauma are dashed when she experiences a string of bizarre, hostile encounters with the men(all played by Rory Kinnear) from the town she's staying in. In typical Garland fashion, it can be assumed that this vague setup will turn into some existential, philosophical and violent madness.

While it initially felt like kind of a bizarre move for Men to go immediately wide considering the degree of success Garland's past A24 effort Ex Machina enjoyed as a platform release (to this day, it remains among the indie juggernaut's highest grossing titles), the arrival of the critical reactions over the past couple weeks have provided some clarity on why its being put into 1,200 or so theaters on opening weekend. The dark, brutal places the story goes to have been divisive among critics, so it's seemingly inevitable that some unsuspecting audiences are going to hate it. What does this mean for our game? Well, it appears poised to put together a little bit of money of this weekend before it promptly falls off a cliff and likely exits theaters entirely by the time the dinos start terrorizing two generations worth of scientists in a few weeks, so probably nothing overly positive. Even with Garland's high stock among cinephiles, an opening on par with the better reviewed and almost certainly more accessible X ($4.3 mil) feels like an unattainable pipe dream at this point.
Prices: $5 ULT/$4 BO
Predictions: $2-4 mil opening/0-2 Top 5/0-2 PTA/$4-12 mil total BO/mid to high 6 IMDb
Worth Putting It on Your Slate?: Unless you're in a precarious position like me where all of the similarly priced films are already on your slate and you're unable to afford a viable replacement for it in ULT, it should probably be avoided.


Limited Release:
The IFC release train keeps chugging along folks! Hold Your Fire (IFC) marks the indie distributors seventh release in the past eight weeks. And like every one of these releases save for Happening, this well-reviewed documentary about a 1973 standoff between an armed robber and the New York City police that at least in theory reformed how cops approach their use of force during confrontations with suspects will do jack squat for the purposes of our game as it's likely to be released in too many theaters to pick up any PTA points. Better luck in 2 weeks with Watcher IFC.

Prices: $2 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: 0 PTA/$30-60k BO/high 6 to low 7 IMDb
Worth Putting It on Your Slate?: No


Weekend Projections:
1.Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $32 mil
2.Downton Abbey: A New Era $18 mil
3.The Bad Guys $5 mil
4.Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $3.5 mil
5.Men $3 mil

PTA: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Downton Abbey: A New Era, Pleasure, Men, The Bad Guys

I'll be back next week to discuss Tom Cruise's return to the friendly skies and San Diego-area beach volleyball courts and another wide release that shall not be named that may or may not have a trailer that has terrorized any poor soul that's seen a movie at an AMC location since early February.

[Buscemi2]

Universal should have never delayed The Black Phone from February. At the old date, the hype was there as it had been getting tons of festival praise. At June, it's simply another film filling auditoriums.

As for the openers, I think both do better. The audience is still there for Downton Abbey while the A24 faithful should get Men to at least a $6 million opening.

[Shrykespeare]

Well, crap. I had better hopes for Men. Oh well.

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascores:

Downton Abbey: A New Era: A (same as the first)
Men: D+ (below Annihilation's C)

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Weekend Estimates:
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $31.6 mil
Downton Abbey: A New Era $16 mil
The Bad Guys $6.1 mil
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $3.9 mil
Men $3.3 mil
Everything Everywhere All at Once $3.1 mil
Fantastic Beasts 3/Firestarter $1.9 mil
The Lost City $1.5 mil
The Northman $1 mil

[Buscemi2]

Surprised that Firestarter held better than expected. Universal isn't even advertising it as being in theatres anymore, only on Peacock.

[transformers2]

Surprised that Firestarter held better than expected. Universal isn't even advertising it as being in theatres anymore, only on Peacock.

They did the same thing with Halloween Kills and Marry Me. Gotta try and pump up the streaming service somehow!

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Weekend Actuals
1.Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $32.3 mil (nice recovery after its pretty steep week 2 drop)
2.Downton Abbey: A New Era $16 mil
3.The Bad Guys $6.1 mil
4.Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $4.1 mil
5.Men $3.3 mil
6.Everything Everywhere All at Once $3.1 mil
7.Firestarter $1.98 mil
8.Fantastic Beasts 3 $1.95 mil
9.The Lost City $1.6 mil
10.The Northman $1 mil

PTA:
1.Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $7,124
2.Downton Abbey: A New Era $4,188
3.Everything Everywhere All at Once $1,989
4.The Bad Guys $1,657
5.Men $1,488

Milestones:
-Everything Everywhere All at Once is now A24's highest grossing film domestically
-The Lost City will hit $100 mil within the next few days
-Doctor Strange has surpassed The Batman as the highest grossing film worldwide in 2022. It only needs another $25 mil to pass it domestically.