SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 5/06

[numbersix]

It’s the summer! Time to shed your clothes and race bare-butted through the fields to celebrate. Or, like a sensible person, cower in an air-conditioned dark room with a cup of cola larger than your head. Which is really what the summer means.

It’s been two years since cinemas saw a proper summer of blockbusters, so it’s exciting to see who wins and who loses, and what sleeper hits and surprises come along. And in terms of winners, it looks like we’ve nothing but them this weekend.




Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Who the hell do you think distributed this) is the second Dr Strange flick, and while it’s technically the fifth film in Phase Four of the MCU, it feels like one of the first proper ones. The plot, presumably, involves the caped wizard (Benedict Cucumberpatch) fighting all sorts of villains, both in his world and in the many parallel ones. But the key is in the title – it’s focused on the main plot element of this phase – the multiverse. This featured heavily in Spider-men ($1.8b worldwide), but this film also connects to the popular Marvel TV series Loki and Wandavision. So of all the recent MCU flicks, this seems pretty central.

Riding hot on the webs of Spidey 3 (or 8, depending on how you see its multiverse), which defied expectations to become a huge hit during the remnants of lockdown, this will inevitably be a hit. It will certainly outdo the first film’s $85m opening and $232m cume, and outdo the last few non-arachnid MCU films. An opening around $150m feels right. Reviews have been positive but not ecstatic, so it may not have a great hold. Still, ending close to $400m will make it one of the biggest films of the year. It should also net you 18-20 T5 points, 8-10 PTA points, and a IMDB score in the 7s. For $53 in Ultimate and $57 in BO, you should conjure up this film to anchor your slate.




Now, normally a weekend with an MCU release results in a bunch of losers, but Happening (IFC) is a film worth adding to your slate. Well, Ultimate Slate. This French drama is set in the 1960s, where a university student wrestles with the decision to get an abortion. Now, that may not seem to be a must-see for a discerning audience enduring dark times, but Happening has a lot going for it. It nabbed the Golden Lion at last year’s Venice film festival, has been receiving rave reviews, and of course the topic is still relevant, being a hot-button topic in this week’s US news. If IFC open it in a few theatres and expand slowly, expect a good few PTA points and a mid-7s IMDB score. Not bad for $2.


Predictions for the weekend

1. Dr Strange - $160m
2. The Bad Guys - $8.5m
3. Sonic 2 - $6m
4. Fantastic Beasts 3 - $4m
5. The Northman - $3.5m

PTA: Dr Strange, Happening, The Bad Guys, Sonic 2, Everything Everywhere

Next week, Screen looks at a bunch of new films, including wide release Firestarter, and smaller releases Family Camp, Jazz Fest, Pleasure, Montana Story, and The Innocents.

[transformers2]

Agree with the $160 mil estimate. It should be a bit more frontloaded than the typical MCU project on account of people wanting to see it early and avoid having the "surprises" spoiled for them. Holds could be a bit of an issue if the criticisms about Sam Raimi's presence being too prominent (a director putting their own stamp on a Marvel movie. The horror!!) from some fanboy critics carries over to the general audiences, but it should be able to clear $400 mil without any issues regardless.

As for Happening, it's not opening here until next week, so IFC may indeed be implementing a slower rollout.

[transformers2]

$36 mil preview haul for Multiverse of Madness last night, which is officially the 8th best total of all time. Infinity War was able to rip off a $258 mil opening after posting $39 mil in previews, but that's not the best comp since this isn't quite as important in the grand scheme of the MCU as that film was. $200 mil+ should definitely be in the cards though.

[Buscemi2]

It looks like this one will be frontloaded. Cinemascore was a disappointing B+.

[numbersix]

Only Eternals got a lower Cinemascore than that, so yeah it'll definitely have a weak hold. But even if it makes $180m this weekend it should still end with about $400m

[Screen203]

I can see why it's getting a mixed reception from audiences. It is a Sam Raimi movie much more than a Marvel movie, and I could see some of the story decisions dividing audiences.

[Buscemi2]

You're forgetting that Raimi also directed Spider-Man 2, often considered one of the best superhero films ever. And he did the Spider-Man before it, the film responsible for making the modern superhero film an event.

The film was marketed and hyped up as being the ultimate superhero movie not in the Avengers series, merging nearly every Marvel universe past and present within a single film. But trying to smash so many plots and characters into a film under two hours without credits was going to be an big issue.

[transformers2]

Screen can confirm or deny this since he's actually seen it, but the bulk of the fan criticisms that I've seen have been aimed towards the amount of violence, prominence of the horror elements and how the Multiverse is utilized (aka not nearly as many cameos/crossovers as people expected).

[Screen203]

Screen can confirm or deny this since he's actually seen it, but the bulk of the fan criticisms that I've seen have been aimed towards the amount of violence, prominence of the horror elements and how the Multiverse is utilized (aka not nearly as many cameos/crossovers as people expected).

Those are the main reasons I expect it to be divisive among audiences (although it isn't much more violent than something like Infinity War - there's only one or two graphic scenes, and nothing is shown directly). There are only one scene with cameos (if you don't count the mid-credits scene with Charlize Theron, or Bruce Campbell's cameo), and said scene leads to the scene most people are talking about in terms of violence. The second half from that scene onwards is essentially an action-horror film and I think this will be the part of the movie that is divisive.

To be honest, I wasn't a huge fan of the movie. The tonal shifts were jarring, and the story was kind of a mess. Elisabeth Olsen and Xochiti Gomez are both great in their roles (however, the story counteracts her arc in WandaVision, in a way that I wasn't huge on and seems to be the main reason for the divisive response). It should be noted that I'm not a huge fan of Sam Raim's horror-comedies, and the second half feels similar in some places.

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $187.4 mil
2.The Bad Guys $9.6 mi (regretting going back on my plan to take this in Ultimate)
3.Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $6.0 mil
4.Fantastic Beasts 3 $4.3 mil
5.Everything Everywhere All at Once $3.5 mil
6.The Northman $2.9 mil
7.The Lost City $2.8 mil
8.The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent $1.6 mil
9.Memory $1.4 mil
10.Father Stu $875k

PTA:
1.Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $41,336
2.Happening $8,328 (4 theaters)
3.The Bad Guys $2,493
4.Everything Everywhere All at Once $2,288
5.Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $1,792