Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/22

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/22

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While Christians spent the weekend celebrating the resurrection of Jesus Christ, moviegoers were hammering the nails in the coffin of the Fantastic Beasts franchise.

The third installment in the Harry Potter prequel franchise continued was only to able to get off to a $43 mil start-which just under $30 mil less than what the original debuted to in November 2016. Box office analysts have floated everything from J.K. Rowling's transphobic comments to audiences being more selective with their theater trips to the re-casting of Johnny Depp (lol) as the reasons for the underwhelming start, but the reality is that these films have simply failed to grab people like the original series did and Secrets of Dumbledore merely continued the downward trend that Crimes of Grindlewald started.

Other wide opener Father Stu had a modest start that was about in-line with what Sony expected. Mark Wahlberg's fact-based Catholic Church PSA made $4.7 mil over the weekend and $8 mil in its first 5 days of release. With Easter of the way, it probably won't stick around for too long, but these broader faith-based movies are capable of putting up surprisingly strong holds in some cases and considering the strength of Father Stu's exit polling, it's possible that it becomes one of those titles.

On the holdover front, Sonic the Hedgehog 2 became the third film of 2022 to clear $100 mil with its $30 mil sophomore frame. Given a so-so new field of openers and the seemingly inevitable pretty steep drop that awaits Secrets of Dumbledore, a return to the top spot in weekend #3 seems very possible.

The rest of the notable releases performed as expected with Everything Everywhere All at Once continuing its strong, WOM-driven run with $6.2 mil haul in its second weekend of wide release, Morbius falling out of the top 5 in its third weekend and Ambulance failing to overcome the disappointment of its quiet opening with a genre-standard 53% drop in weekend #2.


Wide Releases:
The Bad Guys (Universal/Dreamworks) represents the first fully animated release since Sing 2 back in December and first original entry in this space since Encanto back in November. It's not overly surprising that Universal is the first studio that was willing to test these unsettled demographic waters in 2022. They're more willing to roll the dice on original or non-major IP projects than most of their major studio peers and have proven that they believe that there's still money to be made on the family circuit. Will this latest gamble actually pay off for Universal? At the moment, it doesn't seem like it.

This lighthearted film about a group of career animal criminals (voiced by Sam Rockwell, Anthony Ramos, Awkwafina, Marc Maron and Craig Robinson) who decide to pretend to change their evil ways after a failed heist ends up with them getting arrested just doesn't seem like the type of release that's destined to breakout. The animation style is cheap-looking compared to the ultra-polished look of a Disney/Pixar/Illumination production, Dreamworks Animation doesn't have the built-in fanbase of the aforementioned animation houses and as Encanto proved during its theatrical run, original animated movies haven't really popped during COVID times.

However, there is one major thing that The Bad Guys does have going for it: an ideal placement on the release calendar. There isn't another animated film set for release until Lightyear in mid-June and the volume of wide releases is thin enough between next weekend and Memorial Day for it to take advantage of the available screens and enjoy a nice, leggy run. This might not become the next Shrek, Kung-Fu Panda or even Trolls for Dreamworks, but it could very well be an Addams Family-type release that just kind of hangs around and puts up respectable numbers for a month or so straight.
Prices: $16 ULT/$18 BO
Predictions: $12-20 mil OW/2-10 top 5/0-3 PTA/$33-75 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: In BO, definitely not. In ULT, completely depends on how long you think it will linger around in the top 5.


Adding some sizzle to the penultimate weekend of the Winter/Spring frame is a viking revenge epic from Robert Eggers (aka New Hampshire's finest export since Adam Sandler). The Northman (Focus) represents the rare infiltration of the blockbuster filmmaking by a full-blown auteur madman. Even with the film already being released in most of Europe and reviewed by hundreds of critics from around the globe, it still feels like an insane dream that a major studio would give Eggers somewhere between $60 and 90 million to make a film that takes the blueprint for something like Gladiator or Braveheart and filters it through a fantastical, surrealist lens.

The Lighthouse and The Witch have found passionate followings among cinephiles and purveyors of weirdo cinema, but neither of them managed to find a true crossover audience. Will The Northman be able to buck that trend?

Many of those that have seen the film have stated that The Northman is at least a bit more accessible than Eggers' previous work, but unless he completely abandoned his signature style, it's hard to believe that the masses will embrace it. While the marketing certainly hints at the weirder elements, unsuspecting audiences will certainly be blindsided by the methodical pacing and hallucinatory atmosphere Eggers employs. The most likely scenario seems to be that the rave reviews paired with its PLF presence allow it to get off to a decent-ish start before it quickly drops.
Prices: $6 ULT/$6 BO
Predictions: $5-12 mil OW/1-5 top 5 points/0-3 PTA/$13-40 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: If you're looking for a cheap-ish end of slate pick in either format, it's worth a look.


Nicolas Cage's often manic screen presence has turned him into one of the most mythologized actors of all time. Now, Cage himself is playing into that mythology by starring in the meta comedy The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent (Lionsgate).

Massive Talent sees Cage playing a downtrodden version of himself who's on the brink of quitting acting until his agent (Neil Patrick Harris) presents him with an opportunity that will pay him $1 million to fly to Spain and spend a weekend with a mysterious billionaire named Javy (Pedro Pascal), which Cage reluctantly accepts. At first, everything is going great as Cage and Javy become fast friends and go on assorted adventures. But the party soon stops once Cage learns that Javy is a ruthless drug kingpin and a pair of CIA agents (Tiffany Haddish, Ike Barinholtz) recruit Cage to help them bring him down.

To Lionsgate's credit, they've done everything they can to build up awareness for Massive Talent. It premiered to raves at SXSW last month (I was legitimately taken aback by how good the reviews from the major publications were) and the marketing campaign has become increasingly aggressive in an attempt to build off the strong WOM it received at SXSW. The problem is this is a movie that's aimed at an incredibly niche group of people that like Cage and the memeification he's experienced as a performer over the past 10-15 years. No number of great reviews and visible marketing can compensate for a movie that doesn't appeal to a wide enough audience to be deemed successful.
Prices: $8 ULT/$8 BO
Predictions: $5-13 mil/0-4 top 5 points/0-2 PTA points/$12-28 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: No.


Limited Releases:
Nearly 11 months after it received its initial release in France, the long road for US and Canadian audiences that didn't make it out to a film festival last fall/winter to see Petite Maman (Neon) is finally reaching its end. Celine Sciamma's follow-up to Portrait of a Lady on Fire has earned another round of widespread acclaim for the French filmmaker with many praising her ability to make something that blends fantastical and real world elements together so seamlessly.

Petite Maman is exactly what the specialty market is looking for right now. Not only it is a new project from one of the most buzzed-about indie filmmakers on the planet, it's employing an old school platform release that's expanding at a more gradual rate than Neon's last major non-English language release The Worst Person in the World did back in February (it won't go wide until May 13). This type of slow platform release is a recipe for a whole lot of PTA points and leaving this off your ultimate slate could be the type of move that costs you the chance to walk away with the season title.
Prices: $4 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions:9-17 total PTA/$2-5 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Without a doubt


Keeping with the theme of long roads to release in the States, The Duke (Sony Classics) premiered at the slimmed-down 2020 edition of the Venice Film Festival and its release has effectively been in flux ever since. It had an awards-qualifying run back in December, but Sony Classics withheld its release until the spring so they could pour their marketing energy into Parallel Mothers and maintain hope that the older arthouse crowd would return to theaters once spring hit.


While it should be overshadowed by Petite Maman, The Duke is still in a good spot to be productive. The limited market outside of Everything Everywhere All at Once is completely barren right now, Helen Mirren and Jim Broadbent are an appealing lead duo who have solid track records of starring in British fare that has appealed to American audiences and some people will definitely be inclined to honor the memory of the late Rodger Michell by checking out his final narrative film in theaters-particularly since it's on track to be his best reviewed film since at least 2006's Venus.
Prices: $3 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: 3-9 PTA/$600k-$3 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: I like Pleasure more as a $3 PTA pick, but it should be able to put up enough PTA points to justify its price tag.


Iranian filmmaker Panah Panhai made a hell of an impression on the international stage with his debut Hit the Road (Kino Lorber). The film, which tells the story of a family of 4 embarking on a trip through the Iranian countryside, debuted in the Directors Fortnight section of last year's Cannes Film Festival and has earned acclaim for its heartfelt, multi-faceted approach to the road movie. While its rave reviews and prestigious festival pedigree would typically be enough for it secure a solid run on the arthouse circuit, Hit the Road has the hurdle of being handled by an unproven distributor on a weekend that is unquestionably the busiest the specialty circuit has seen in quite some time and that could very well prove to be too much of an obstacle for this little movie to overcome.
Prices: $2 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: 0-5 PTA/$30-75k total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Hard to say, but it has real upside.


Weekend Predictions:
1.Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $18 mil
2.The Bad Guys $16 mil
3.Fantastic Beasts 3 $14 mil
4.The Northman $9 mil
5.The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent $8 mil

PTA: Petite Maman, The Duke, Sonic the Hedgehog 2, Hit the Road, The Northman

Tune in next week when Screen previews a slate featuring Liam Nesson's latest geriatric action yarn from Open Road, a Finnish body horror flick that made waves at Sundance in January and a romantic war drama out of Estonia.
Last edited by transformers2 on April 19th, 2022, 8:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/22

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I think Cage's movie outdoes The Northman. Industry movies are rarely a success but this looks like a more accessible film than something we saw a million times in the wake of 300 all those years ago. Also, when's the last time Alexander Skarsgard was the lead in something?

And I think Father Stu drops heavily this week. Easter more than likely allowed it to open better than it normally would have and the target audience rarely watches anything R-rated. Maybe if it was about Wahlberg as some sort of spiritual assassin living out the fantasies of the Jesus crowd.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/22

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The Northman will probably get poor WOM as it's much artier than the marketing campaign suggests.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/22

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You've convinced me. I'm adding Petite Maman to my slate.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/22

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It is Sciamma so it should have some interest.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/22

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Shrykespeare wrote:
April 19th, 2022, 7:14 pm
You've convinced me. I'm adding Petite Maman to my slate.
Someone actually followed a piece of "advice" that I offered up in a column. History has been made folks!!!
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/22

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Weekend Estimates:
The Bad Guys $24 mil
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $15.2 mil
Fantastic Beasts 3 $14 mil (-67% drop-which is brutal, but still 7% lower than Morbius')
The Northman $12 mil
The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent $7.2 mil
Everything Everywhere All at Once $5.4 mil (an incredible -12% hold)
The Lost City $4.4 mil
Father Stu $3.3 mil
Morbius $2.2 mil
Ambulance $1.8 mil
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/22

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Actuals:
1.The Bad Guys $24 mil
2.Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $15.7 mil
3.Fantastic Beasts 3 $14 mil
4.The Northman $12.3 mil
5.The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent $7.1 mil
6.Everything Everywhere All at Once $5.4 mil
7.The Lost City $4.3 mil
8.Father Stu $3.3 mil
9.Morbius $2.3 mil
10.Ambulance $1.8 mil

PTA:
1.Petite Maman $11,441
2.The Duke $6,444
3.The Bad Guys $5,975
4.Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $4,109
5.Hit the Road $3,992
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/22

Post by numbersix »

Glad I picked up The duke instead of Hit the Road.

disappointed I dropped The northman, as it's a solid little pick.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/22

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numbersix wrote:
April 26th, 2022, 3:43 am

disappointed I dropped The northman, as it's a solid little pick.
In 2 weeks, Spectre and I could be the disappointed ones if Firestarter ends up taking off.
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